Lemmie help on this data please

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Jersey Girl
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Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Lemmie you gave us a link to this website to watch the progress of CV-19. https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

It's one of the sources I've been using the entire time. When you look at the US and the first two graphs, you can see cumulative growth rate percentages stated on the first two graphs using a kind of shadow text. Same thing when you click on a state.

I noticed that the percentages are no long being posted for my own state while they are for most any other state, and they haven't been posted for several days now. I don't understand why that would happen. Can you explain, please?

Anyone else know?

Thanks!

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Lemmie »

It may just be an artifact of the sizing. After clicking on your state, instead of looking at the two small graphs side by side at the top, scroll down to the larger graph under trends. On one graph it plots both your state and the u.s., your state’s growth rate %age in shadow text shows there as 3% today.

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Lemmie wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:40 am
It may just be an artifact of the sizing. After clicking on your state, instead of looking at the two small graphs side by side at the top, scroll down to the larger graph under trends. On one graph it plots both your state and the u.s., your state’s growth rate %age in shadow text shows there as 3% today.
Thanks! Yes, that's what I've been doing. On the two graphs in question, the percentages were different almost each day. I was interested in observing the lag between new cases and deaths. Do you think this is something that could return?

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Lemmie »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:44 am
Lemmie wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:40 am
It may just be an artifact of the sizing. After clicking on your state, instead of looking at the two small graphs side by side at the top, scroll down to the larger graph under trends. On one graph it plots both your state and the u.s., your state’s growth rate %age in shadow text shows there as 3% today.
Thanks! Yes, that's what I've been doing. On the two graphs in question, the percentages were different almost each day. I was interested in observing the lag between new cases and deaths. Do you think this is something that could return?
Not sure what you are referring to when you say the lag between new cases and deaths?

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Lemmie wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:50 am
Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:44 am


Thanks! Yes, that's what I've been doing. On the two graphs in question, the percentages were different almost each day. I was interested in observing the lag between new cases and deaths. Do you think this is something that could return?
Not sure what you are referring to when you say the lag between new cases and deaths?
When the new cases shoot up...death spikes are soon to follow. There's a lag between the two.

Does that make sense?

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Lemmie »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:51 am
Lemmie wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:50 am

Not sure what you are referring to when you say the lag between new cases and deaths?
When the new cases shoot up...death spikes are soon to follow. There's a lag between the two.

Does that make sense?
Yes, but just eyeballing your state’s graph isn’t enough to establish that spikes in one will cause spikes in the other, beyond the obvious correlation that death follows sickness. The three overt spikes in deaths are preceded by 1) no spike before that day but a spike in new cases on same day, 2) a small increase but not spike day before, and 3) an increase but not spike two days before.

All of that just serves to emphasize that you can only casually get trends out of a visual of a graph, you have to dig into the math to see if there is an actual correlation, let along causal effect, specifically between single data points of new case local optima and single data points of death local optima.

Look at the chart at the very bottom, tracking the median time and the range of exposure, symptoms, and admission to acute care. The pattern you are seeing comes more out of that overall analysis of averages and ranges than of any correlation between specific single day points or spikes. Think of illness and death as rolling averages, not single day’s data.

ETA: it occurs to me I am being unnecessarily technical. So yes, in general, more cases, more deaths.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Res Ipsa »

Lemmie, is a seven-day rolling average an appropriate way to visualize the trend, or is something likes a Loess smooth better?

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Thanks for explaining, Lemmie. I've been obsessively recording these for over 2 months now. :eek:

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Lemmie »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:21 am
Thanks for explaining, Lemmie. I've been obsessively recording these for over 2 months now. :eek:
No, I understand. And that site really pulls stuff together very well and very reliably, right? And looking for relationships is normal. It helps me to put even some tentative human context to the data. What I am really comforted to see is the slow down out here, especially New York, New Jersey. It has been brutal.

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Lemmie wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 10:15 am
Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:21 am
Thanks for explaining, Lemmie. I've been obsessively recording these for over 2 months now. :eek:
No, I understand. And that site really pulls stuff together very well and very reliably, right? And looking for relationships is normal. It helps me to put even some tentative human context to the data. What I am really comforted to see is the slow down out here, especially New York, New Jersey. It has been brutal.
It's been somewhat of a comforting ritual for me to record the national and local numbers each day. I follow two other websites as well. I've kept an eye on Hudson, Essex, Monmouth and Ocean Counties the entire time. Followed Cuomo's daily briefings as well.

I've found that when I record the numbers I can more easily put them in their place so to speak, and set them aside to get on with life such as it is. So, it's become part of self care routines for me.

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Lemmie. They added it back in. :surprised:

Lemmie
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Lemmie »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 pm
Lemmie. They added it back in. :surprised:
:biggrin: Awesome. And they leveled out the typing and used a larger font.

Now EVERYONE knows not to mess with Jersey Girl!

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Dr. Shades »

Fun fact for Jersey Girl:

If it wasn't for the "i" in the addressee's name, the lack of a comma after the first word in this thread's title makes it look like you're offering to help us with this data. :-)

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:52 pm
Fun fact for Jersey Girl:

If it wasn't for the "i" in the addressee's name, the lack of a comma after the first word in this thread's title makes it look like you're offering to help us with this data. :-)
Go away from me.

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Some Schmo
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Some Schmo »

Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:52 pm
Fun fact for Jersey Girl:

If it wasn't for the "i" in the addressee's name, the lack of a comma after the first word in this thread's title makes it look like you're offering to help us with this data. :-)
Lemmie tell you something, Shades... this was a bad attempt to take Lemmie and make Lemmie aid.

(Sorry Lemmie)

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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Lemmie »

Some Schmo wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:28 pm
Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:52 pm
Fun fact for Jersey Girl:

If it wasn't for the "i" in the addressee's name, the lack of a comma after the first word in this thread's title makes it look like you're offering to help us with this data. :-)
Lemmie tell you something, Shades... this was a bad attempt to take Lemmie and make Lemmie aid.

(Sorry Lemmie)
Omg, I needed that laugh! Awesome, Some Schmo, simply AWESOME.

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Some Schmo wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:28 pm
Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:52 pm
Fun fact for Jersey Girl:

If it wasn't for the "i" in the addressee's name, the lack of a comma after the first word in this thread's title makes it look like you're offering to help us with this data. :-)
Lemmie tell you something, Shades... this was a bad attempt to take Lemmie and make Lemmie aid.

(Sorry Lemmie)
He needs to get a personality and learn to actually converse with people. :evil:

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Shades use that I link I sent you and go watch true crime cases with DT. You don't see him plowing in here making offhand annoying remarks, do you? No, he's doing something interesting with his time. Go whatcha some videos and get out of my hair.

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Dr. Shades
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Dr. Shades »

Why so angry, Jersey Girl? Lemmie cure what ails ya.

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canpakes
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by canpakes »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 9:59 pm
Go whatcha some videos and get out of my hair.
I’ll take that to indicate that you haven’t given yourself that buzz cut just yet.

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Jersey Girl
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Re: Lemmie help on this data please

Post by Jersey Girl »

Dr. Shades wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 11:38 pm
Why so angry, Jersey Girl?
I'm not angry, Shades.
Lemmie cure what ails ya.
Sure. Pick a video.

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