COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

Post by Icarus »

The New York Times is reporting on a study that says 36,000 lives were lost due to the delays in lockdowns:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/c ... DpKe2FQ_Ng

DoubtingThomas
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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Icarus wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 5:34 am
The New York Times is reporting on a study that says 36,000 lives were lost due to the delays in lockdowns:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/us/c ... DpKe2FQ_Ng
The Republican government was really under-prepared. All it cared about is cutting taxes for the wealthy.

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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So for weeks now I've seen people constantly make claims that have since been debunked about an exaggerated over count of COVID deaths. One of the more popular claims is that doctors are putting COVID on death certificates for people who died of heart attacks, pneumonia and even car accidents.

So I thought it was strange the other day on Tucker Carlson's show when he hosted the father of a 12 year old boy who committed suicide just last month. Without qualification, he insisted the COVID shutdowns are why his son took his own life.

“I know this. My son would be alive if he was in school,” Hunstable said.

So let me get this straight. When COVID triggers deaths when people have underlying medical conditions, it is in no way a COVID related death. However, when a kid kills himself during an isolation period, it has to be because of COVID alone, because we all know people with suicidal tendencies never have underlying issues with depression.

I think it is sick and pathetic that this man is taking to FOX News to use his son's death to push a political agenda. I'm supposed to believe this kid couldn't handle a few months without school, which is what every kid does every year anyway?

If he were literally locked up in his house then that isn't the fault of government, it is the fault of the parents. There is a litany of ways parents can get their kids out of the house, go camping, take a road trip, etc. Just last month I took my family to the Georgia coast and we rented a house on at St. Catherine's sound and spent a few days fishing and crabbing.

This kid's father is actually well known, and a very wealthy businessman. This kid likely suffered from lack of parental attention.

And there are no details given about the circumstances of his tragic death, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if in two years an investigation concludes it was an accidental death and no suicide.

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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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It wouldn't be surprising if COVID relates partial shutdowns are driving an uptick in the suicide rate. They, on balance, cause more social isolation and social isolation, on balance, increases the rate of suicide. If are looking at a large population of people, then causal factors that might not matter to most people might be enough to push some vulnerable people over the edge. It'd be hard to say in any specific case if quarantine caused the suicide, but on a population level you probably can say with some confidence that some number of suicides were caused by it. If you want an example that's more friendly to your politics, gun availability isn't necessarily the principle cause of suicide in any specific case, but we can say that gun access increases the suicide rate.

LIkewise, it wouidn't be a surprise if there were more deaths caused by domestic violence related homicide.

Of course, the shut downs are likely having effects on non-COVID related deaths in the other direction. I'd be surprised if traffic accidents aren't down as the traffic rate has gone down.

While this is all unfortunate, there's very good reason to believe that social distancing measures in general have saved far more lives than they cost.

Also, it's pretty mean-spirited and irrational to blame his father for his suicide based on an imagined family dynamic that may or may not have been the case that, even if it was, may nor may not have played a role in suicidal ideation.

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

Post by Icarus »

I always understood teen suicides to be more related to school bullying, and would think that being more at home with family life and less time among social groups at school would result in a reduction as opposed to an increase in teen suicides. Colorado is seeing a 40% reduction during the first two months of COVID: https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/23/c ... ne-spiked/

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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EAllusion wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 2:28 pm
Also, it's pretty mean-spirited and irrational to blame his father for his suicide based on an imagined family dynamic that may or may not have been the case that, even if it was, may nor may not have played a role in suicidal ideation.
Well, I have a son that age and he isn't interested at all in winning affection from friends from school. He cares far more about getting attention from his father, wrestling on the floor, throwing the ball, etc. That's how I was at that age too, and I strongly believe the majority of teen suicides could be avoided if parents paid more attention to their kids. I'm such a firm believer in this that I think it is borderline immoral to have enormous families with 8-13 kids like so many Mormons do. How is it even possible for a working man to spend adequate time with each kid? I showed a house to a family last year with 11 kids and I asked the younger one, who wasn't even wearing shoes, when her birthday was. She didn't know. She looked to be 4. So I asked the father, and he just looked at me with a blank stare and then said, "When is her birthday?" And then laughed it off because he really didn't know. He couldn't even tell me the month. If you're having so many kids than you cannot even keep track of their birthdays, then you don't need to be having more kids. If I'm an asshole for judging parents who neglect their kids, then so be it.

For this Hunstable guy to take no responsibility for what his kids do, and then to blame the government's safety measures with shelter in place tells me a lot about the man. He's obviously a man with sufficient means, so if he truly believed his kid was suffering from "being isolated," then he should have remedied that and not isolated him. Families everywhere are taking the initiative to get out. Just yesterday I learned that there aren't any decent Mountain Bikes for sale under $1000 anywhere because the entire country is taking up kayaking and biking during these times.

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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

Post by EAllusion »

The causes of suicide are multi-variate and do not reduce into quality of parenting. Some people, unfortunately, just have a biological predisposition to depression that causes suicidal ideation. The implication of what you are saying is that teen suicides can be treated on assumption as likely attributable to poor parenting practices. So not only have parents have to deal with the loss of the child, one of the worst things that can happen to a person, on top of it there's people blaming them for it?

The parent in this case is either actively using his son's death to argue against COVID safety measures or is allowing himself to be exploited for that purpose by propagandists. I'm not sure which it is, but that's condemnable. That doesn't mean his son's suicide is his fault.

It's not easy for everyone to replicate social interactions when isolation measures have cut off some of people's normal socialization routines. We can sympathize with this. We can try to help. What we can't do is drop protections when the situation isn't under control because it's harder for some people. That's just a poor risk benefit decision.

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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I'll grant the possibility that it isn't his fault in any way at all. My point was that this was more likely more his fault than anything the government did.

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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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Covid wasn't working anymore. Democrats have already started a race war. You guys are off message. Move along.

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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/30/americas ... index.html

This has always been one of the biggest things that doesn't add up to me with COVID. EAllusion's explanation that Latin America has complied better with social distancing and hence hasn't had an outbreak is prima facie moronic and ignorant in so many ways. This article from his own side of the media admits that there is no way these people can social distance nor stay home from work. There are certainly just as many or more people crammed together as New York City.

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

Post by Icarus »

ajax18 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 6:05 pm
Covid wasn't working anymore. Democrats have already started a race war. You guys are off message. Move along.
Just another reason why you'll forever be a moron. You actually think COVID is a Democrat plot/hoax and now they planned for a white cop in Minnesota to murder a black man. This was all coordinated right? Damn you're dumb.

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Icarus
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

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ajax18 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:14 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/30/americas ... index.html

This has always been one of the biggest things that doesn't add up to me with COVID. EAllusion's explanation that Latin America has complied better with social distancing and hence hasn't had an outbreak is prima facie moronic and ignorant in so many ways. This article from his own side of the media admits that there is no way these people can social distance nor stay home from work. There are certainly just as many or more people crammed together as New York City.
Why don't you quote what he actually said.

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ajax18
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

Post by ajax18 »

Icarus wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 9:19 pm
ajax18 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:14 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/30/americas ... index.html

This has always been one of the biggest things that doesn't add up to me with COVID. EAllusion's explanation that Latin America has complied better with social distancing and hence hasn't had an outbreak is prima facie moronic and ignorant in so many ways. This article from his own side of the media admits that there is no way these people can social distance nor stay home from work. There are certainly just as many or more people crammed together as New York City.
Why don't you quote what he actually said.

It should be in the archives if you want to look for it.

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Some Schmo
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Re: COVID Deaths are an Undercount

Post by Some Schmo »

ajax18 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 6:05 pm
Covid wasn't working anymore. Democrats have already started a race war. You guys are off message. Move along.
You always reveal the idiotic strategies you employ.

You're the one who has to check what your moronic cult is saying in order to know what to post. You're the one who has a need to be "on message." Heaven forbids that you think for yourself.

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