The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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EAllusion wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 7:47 am
Here's a study indicating that social distancing policy has a very sizeable effect on the transmission rate of coronavirus in the United States:

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/ ... urtemanche

And here's a video Donald Trump is promoting on his twitter:

https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/12 ... 9089101830
Interesting that it found no effect for school closures and cancellation of large events.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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The school closures is interesting, though with the caveat that their methods can only detect large effects. For the cancellation of large events, I wonder if that's just a matter of pro-social behavior making government mandates redundant. It isn't, after all, looking at the density of large events occurring.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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[quote]Ajax, why do you continually make stuff up about the “left’s” who are promoting lockdown for 3-4 years.[/quote]

This strawman is very common in the right-wing media Ajax relies on. A binary is presented between indefinite lockdown and "re-opening" meaning something like a return to pre-COVID activity. Then the left is ascribed the former position. The 3-4 years seems to come from the idea that while everyone is optimistic that a vaccine can be on board within a year and a half, it's plausible that it could take longer, even several years.

Ajax's brain simply cannot handle the idea that everyone wants to "re-open" or that re-opening isn't a binary but rather is a gradient involving tradeoffs between risks and safety measures. And it really can't handle the idea that restrictions would be less needed if our government could manage the sophistication of Ethiopia when it came to public health policy.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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EAllusion wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 10:54 am
The school closures is interesting, though with the caveat that their methods can only detect large effects. For the cancellation of large events, I wonder if that's just a matter of pro-social behavior making government mandates redundant. It isn't, after all, looking at the density of large events occurring.
Yeah, I think that’s likely. I don’t know about other states, but folks here we’re doing lots of social distancing, telecommuting, etc. before schools were closed, so it may be the same thing.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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EAllusion wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 11:01 am
Ajax, why do you continually make stuff up about the “left’s” who are promoting lockdown for 3-4 years.
This strawman is very common in the right-wing media Ajax relies on. A binary is presented between indefinite lockdown and "re-opening" meaning something like a return to pre-COVID activity. Then the left is ascribed the former position. The 3-4 years seems to come from the idea that while everyone is optimistic that a vaccine can be on board within a year and a half, it's plausible that it could take longer, even several years.

Ajax's brain simply cannot handle the idea that everyone wants to "re-open" or that re-opening isn't a binary but rather is a gradient involving tradeoffs between risks and safety measures. And it really can't handle the idea that restrictions would be less needed if our government could manage the sophistication of Ethiopia when it came to public health policy.
I think that’s some of it. I also think the right wing media caricatures the left more than the traditional media does with right. Ajax’s knowledge about what people left of center think is spoon fed to him by Brietbart and he’s too incurious to fact check what they tell him.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Gunnar »

Thanks for that link, Jersey Girl!

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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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https://mobile.twitter.com/rafalab

Nicholas Kristof
@NickKristof
·
May 13
So what's the undercount on #covid19 in the US? I worked with
@Harvard
statistician
@rafalab
to calculate the excess deaths, and it seems that in the US more than 100,000 Americans have ALREADY died from the coronavirus. Here's our count:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opin ... 2SZsojoiwc

tl;dr - Ajax is wrong again. He's gleefully buried in conspiratard Conservative totally-not-fake-news sources because they all read like the Enquirer.

- Doc
Last edited by Doctor CamNC4Me on Sat May 16, 2020 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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I've read a few rankings of pandemic preparedness or capacity to cope with a pandemic that were developed prior to COVID. They all put America at the top. First, reading that is utterly depressing knowing how it turned out. Second, I don't think those rankings really took into account how broken American culture is and how that affects our status on paper. The latter point probably goes for similar kinds of rankings that don't take into account American politics like it should.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Another right-wing friend of mine has been including me on his email distro where he imparts his wisdom to family and friends. According to him, the pandemic is only 10% real and the rest is hype in order for government to finalize its stranglehold on society. He says they are just chalking up dead bodies to CV without even testing them. He says both he and his friend had it (neither tested), and it's bad but not that bad, and people need to quit living in fear.

I actually don't know if he's a Trump supporter or not, I've never heard him mention names. He's a disciple of skousen and ETB.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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If a person's conspiratorial thinking only goes as far as "they're just counting any death as COVID" they should have to explain why there are so many more deaths than normal. Hell of a coincidence that as a deadly pandemic rips through society some other unknown factor is causing people to die at way higher rates than normal even as other causes of death like traffic accidents reduce due to social changes. Aren't they even a little curious what that might be then?

I can see a universe where the conspiracy thinking evolves into the idea that the government is killing off people en masse and using COVID as a cover. I suspect the reason that isn't already happening is because the kind of people who get into these kind of conspiracies are also the kind of people who like Donald Trump and they wouldn't implicate him.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Well, there are all kinds of questions I could ask him, but I don't get into it, if I visit him again one day I might bring up a couple things, but as you know, it's pointless.

re deaths: the numbers are made up. fake death certificates. the pictures are fake. and if the numbers are real and the pictures are real, then the government is killing older people in homes (for a start) in a secret program. (he already believes there have been government programs responsible for more impossible things than that, such as a chair that connects a person's consciousness to some place on mars for remote viewing)

Oh, he's not dumb by the way, had a pretty interesting science scholarship at one time (usual problem; world revolves around his need to feel important). He's made horrible life choices though. And he does have skin in the game. His mother, his most ardent disciple, is in her 70s and has saved him innumerable times. He also has family members with underlying health conditions. So get the family together as often as possible under his bold leadership, affirming their freedom based his his understanding of the scriptures and speculative thought.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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When there is a conflict between Public Health and Personal Freedom, the tiebreaker goes to the virus. If it were possible for anyone to take their chances with the virus ALONE, I would say good luck and godspeed. The problem is that it that we DON'T live in a vacuum. When you take your chances with the virus, you endanger not only yourself but anyone with whom you come in contact. If you contract the virus and are hospitalized, you endanger health workers and your illness consumes resources that are in desperately short supply.

I think there is some quixotic hope that we can somehow 'push through' this early opening, that after a flurry of early deaths that things will settle down, and the economy will be humming by the end of the year. We know from experience, not only with this virus but from a century of epidemiological study that second waves are deadlier that the first wave. Does anyone think that this virus gives a ____ about personal freedom?

My sister's political views are center-right. At the beginning of April, she forwarded what she thought was a 'happy thoughts' post about the virus: Give us a little more time and we will be doing much better.

That was about 80,000 deaths ago.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Gunnar »

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 6:59 am
https://mobile.twitter.com/rafalab

Nicholas Kristof
@NickKristof
·
May 13
So what's the undercount on #covid19 in the US? I worked with
@Harvard
statistician
@rafalab
to calculate the excess deaths, and it seems that in the US more than 100,000 Americans have ALREADY died from the coronavirus. Here's our count:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/opin ... 2SZsojoiwc

tl;dr - Ajax is wrong again. He's gleefully buried in conspiratard Conservative totally-not-fake-news sources because they all read like the Enquirer.

- Doc
Unfortunately, like his idol Trump, Ajax is constitutionally incapable of even considering the possibility that he might be mistaken about anything.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Gunnar »

Jersey Girl wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 5:35 pm
Cool tracking map from Nat Geo
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... 4E3A4DE500
Great link! If you liked that one, you will probably also find this one informative:
https://247wallst.com/special-report/20 ... t-now-2/2/

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Here’s what I think is an interesting modeling effort. It’sa standard SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed) epidemiology model with a machine learning overlay. It has some simple assumptions about relaxing and imposing social distancing, and has been pretty accurate. The input is daily new deaths, and the AI learns as it goes. https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections

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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Brazil is getting hit hard:

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/amer ... past-20000

The interesting bit from the article:

“Brazil has now recorded more than 310,000 cases, with experts saying a lack of testing means the real figures are probably much higher.

...

The death toll - the sixth highest worldwide - has doubled in just 11 days, according to ministry data.“

20,000 dead and rising rapidly. The US hit 94,000+ today. It’ll be... morbidly interesting to observe how many lives are claimed by an inevitable second wave as we open up the economy again.

- Doc

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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It's still unclear how much seasonality there is to the virus and what's particularly scary is the possibility of another more serious wave in the fall/winter in a more open environment. Doubly so if Trump somehow loses the election and Republicans go into pure nihilistic obstruction mode.

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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Trump announced that all orders preventing Church attendance are to be ended effective immediately and that he'll "override" governors if it is not done so. This is nonsense as he doesn't have that authority, but I guess it lets him get to test the boundaries of dictatorial threats and playact strong for a religious conservative base. 

While there's still a lot of uncertainty about how COVID spreads, one of the things that is reasonably clear is that Churches are high-risk settings for spreading the disease, for what is worth. 

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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I wonder what the US Supreme Court, which is holding arguments over Zoom, would have to say about that? Off the top of my head, the controlling opinion on this was written by one of the leading conservatives on the court when it was issued and would reject a first amendment challenge as long as the restrictions were generally applicable and not targeted at religion.

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