The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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EAllusion
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by EAllusion »

I mean, unemployment might be extremely high for quite some time. That's plausible. The economy is collapsing. It's just that you don't fix the demand problem by removing various stay-at-home orders, and if you change people's behavior with a magic wand to pre-virus activity, then you've got a plague on your hands that'll make things much worse. It's pain no matter what you do, but some paths are better than others.

EAllusion
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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[quote="Res Ipsa" post_id=1224257 time=1589236753 user_id=16705]

[/quote]

Yep. There was an early poorly done study that claims asymptomatic transmission. Since then there is much better evidence of pre and asymptomatic transmission, which shows both are occurring. I do my best to stick to reliable evidence and am happy to change my mind when the evidence warrants. I’m not convinced that wearing the same cloth mask all day actually reduces transmission, but for shopping trips, etc., I doubt it does any harm. But if we get some reliable evidence about using the same cloth mask all day is developed, I’d be happy to change my mind.

Are you feeling better these days, EAllusion?
[/quote]

I'm recovered. I feel fine. I have some residual breathing issues that I hope (?) will go away with time. I throw numbers into Bayesian probability calculators about the odds I'm a COVID survivor and it just comes up with a person shrugging their shoulders.

Re: Mask use, I don't think the science behind what we're talking about is much in dispute. If wearing a mask is a good idea if you're sick, then given circumstances, it might be wise to encourage everyone to wear them to dragnet the sick ones. The protective benefits for the mask-wearer are dubious, especially for hand-made cloth ones, but you reducing viral spread from the already infected.

Early advice in this thread, especially in light of mask shortages, was they're not gonna do you much good unless you are sick. That was a conventional take. The WHO was on that line. In retrospect, I think we should've been more like Asian countries and just culturally adopted mass use in a whatever it takes to chip away at the transmission rate move.

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ajax18
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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The masks are fogging everyones glasses and are a real pain when doing refractions and slit lamp exam. If they're not doing much good...

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ajax18
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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The masks are fogging everyones glasses and are a real pain when doing refractions and slit lamp exam. If they're not doing much good...

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ajax18
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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If your work has the potential to kill large numbers of people, shouldn't you try to find other work?
40 million people are having a hard time doing that right now.

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Some Schmo
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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ajax18 wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 6:18 pm
If your work has the potential to kill large numbers of people, shouldn't you try to find other work?
40 million people are having a hard time doing that right now.
Right. So maybe we need to rethink what it means to earn a living... unless we decide it's simply fine to let a bunch of people die, both from the virus and from starvation.

EAllusion
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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[quote]The masks are fogging everyones glasses and are a real pain when doing refractions and slit lamp exam. If they're not doing much good...[/quote]

1) It depends on the type of mask. Not sure what your PPE situation is, but one would hope you ain't rolling up in a cloth MAGA mask or whatever. You ideally should have on a respirator and a face shield. I kinda assumed you did, and I'm sorry if you do not.

2) It's not just about protecting you. It's about protecting people [i]from[/i] you. Social use of masks outside a health care setting are more about prevention of transmission from the user than to the user. If you can get everyone on board, now you're cooking with gas.

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ajax18
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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I haven't had a single patient come in without a mask since reopening. I was wearing one before we shut down. I tolerate the face shield to protect the patients from me. If it were just me I'd risk it because they're very uncomfortable and make for an even longer day.

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Jersey Girl
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Jersey Girl wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 2:36 pm
EAllusion wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:05 am
Hey, a story close to Jersey Girl:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/color ... b-enus-280

This is a follow-up from the viral story on their posting they had not that long ago.

Not a mask to be seen. No meaningful distancing.
Yep. This is why my butt is sitting out here in the sticks. Someone is going to end up getting shot over these kinds of conflicts. Wait for it. I can socially distance like a boss right where I am. :lol:
Governor ordered it closed today.

https://www.kktv.com/content/news/Color ... pmeTYCsVxI

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MeDotOrg
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 4:59 pm
I doubt I’ll go to a movie in the foreseeable future. I won’t fly or set foot on a cruise ship before I’m vaccinated or the virus is no longer circulating in the US. Crowds are out.
Personally I think it will be years before the Cruise Ship industry comes back. I'm sure all the movie studios dependent upon theatrical release are thinking about how nice it would be to own a streaming service.

Pro sports have a lot of problems. How do you support a franchise without season tickets and stadium revenue? Can you imagine watching an NFL game in an empty stadium? The sound of the crowd amplifies the drama of sports.

Tonight I thought of a Game Show they should bring back: Hollywood Squares. It would be the cheapest game show in history (apologies to Chuck Barris). Set up a Zoom meeting and let people watch.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Res Ipsa »

EAllusion wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 5:46 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 4:39 pm
Yep. There was an early poorly done study that claims asymptomatic transmission. Since then there is much better evidence of pre and asymptomatic transmission, which shows both are occurring. I do my best to stick to reliable evidence and am happy to change my mind when the evidence warrants. I’m not convinced that wearing the same cloth mask all day actually reduces transmission, but for shopping trips, etc., I doubt it does any harm. But if we get some reliable evidence about using the same cloth mask all day is developed, I’d be happy to change my mind.

Are you feeling better these days, EAllusion?
I'm recovered. I feel fine. I have some residual breathing issues that I hope (?) will go away with time. I throw numbers into Bayesian probability calculators about the odds I'm a COVID survivor and it just comes up with a person shrugging their shoulders.

Re: Mask use, I don't think the science behind what we're talking about is much in dispute. If wearing a mask is a good idea if you're sick, then given circumstances, it might be wise to encourage everyone to wear them to dragnet the sick ones. The protective benefits for the mask-wearer are dubious, especially for hand-made cloth ones, but you reducing viral spread from the already infected.

Early advice in this thread, especially in light of mask shortages, was they're not gonna do you much good unless you are sick. That was a conventional take. The WHO was on that line. In retrospect, I think we should've been more like Asian countries and just culturally adopted mass use in a whatever it takes to chip away at the transmission rate move.
[/quote]

The problem with wearing a cloth mask all day is that it gets damp from your breath and the virus can transfer to the outer surface. It’s really hard over periods of several hours not to have to adjust the mask because it gets uncomfortable. If it causes you to touch your mask frequently, you can then transfer them to surfaces. Yes, there are some lab studies indicating that the mask can catch droplets from coughing or sneezing. But that’s different than demonstrating that wearing a mask all day that becomes a virus soaked piece of cloth actually results in net reduction of transfer out in the real world. Especially in contrast to proper cough and sneeze etiquette combined with social distancing. I haven’t seen convincing evidence of the Net benefit.

EAllusion
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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I'm confused about your post RI. If, on the one hand, you say that people who are sick should use them, but on the other that they are likely to be ineffective so why bother, then why should sick people use them? The relative effectiveness of masks isn't in question here. It's whether only people who know they sick should wear them as a blunt tool to reduce transmission or if everyone should just in case they are sick. If you're backing down on the advise for sick people to mask up, that would seem more consistent to me.

One of the things that we know reduces the effectiveness of mask use is common mistakes in using them. That seemed to loom large in the WHO reasoning. And, yeah, we should look at actual human behavior rather than idealized use. I can't tell you how many times I've walked into client homes and observed their staff wearing the same gloves with different people because they apparently never absorbed that it's more than just about protecting them. I once saw two staff gowned up for someone with cdiff who had their masks around their chin.* Great job guys. Anyway, I think that aspect could be significantly improved through public education. Imagine, for instance, if the daily Presidential propaganda sessions pumped into people's homes for weeks on end involved a ritual of explaining proper PPE use. That probably could've done wonders for cultural penetration.

That said, I'm not sure we're talking about wearing a mask "all-day" so much as "when around other people" and not a cloth mask so much as actual medical equipment.

[size=85]*And these are reportable violations that can result in citation or loss of licensure. [/size]

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Jersey Girl
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

Senate hearing is live right now.

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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

I can’t quite put my finger on why this video of Dr. Fauci responding to Sic et Non. Rand Paul captures the American zeitgeist right now:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... New York-vpx.cnn

- Doc

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Jersey Girl
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 1:19 pm
I can’t quite put my finger on why this video of Dr. Fauci responding to Sic et Non. Rand Paul captures the American zeitgeist right now:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... New York-vpx.cnn

- Doc
Hello Rand? Yeah, if you're going to try to employ one of Shakespeare's idioms try not to butcher it next time. k thx.
Shakespeare wrote:If it were done, when 'tis done, then 'twere well
It were done quickly. If th' assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
With his surcease, success: that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all—here,
But here, upon this bank and shoal of time,
We'd jump the life to come.
I see every day people messing up idioms of one kind or another. I have to see this coming out of the US Senate?

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Res Ipsa »

EAllusion wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:35 am
I'm confused about your post RI. If, on the one hand, you say that people who are sick should use them, but on the other that they are likely to be ineffective so why bother, then why should sick people use them? The relative effectiveness of masks isn't in question here. It's whether only people who know they sick should wear them as a blunt tool to reduce transmission or if everyone should just in case they are sick. If you're backing down on the advise for sick people to mask up, that would seem more consistent to me.

One of the things that we know reduces the effectiveness of mask use is common mistakes in using them. That seemed to loom large in the WHO reasoning. And, yeah, we should look at actual human behavior rather than idealized use. I can't tell you how many times I've walked into client homes and observed their staff wearing the same gloves with different people because they apparently never absorbed that it's more than just about protecting them. I once saw two staff gowned up for someone with cdiff who had their masks around their chin.* Great job guys. Anyway, I think that aspect could be significantly improved through public education. Imagine, for instance, if the daily Presidential propaganda sessions pumped into people's homes for weeks on end involved a ritual of explaining proper PPE use. That probably could've done wonders for cultural penetration.

That said, I'm not sure we're talking about wearing a mask "all-day" so much as "when around other people" and not a cloth mask so much as actual medical equipment.

*And these are reportable violations that can result in citation or loss of licensure.
Context. If my recollection is correct, WHO from the beginning recommended that the sick wear surgical masks when in close contact, like when a health care provider or someone in their household is in the same room. That's different than the current cloth covering practice that's being promoted. If you're an essential worker going to the workplace, unless you don't work in proximity to others, you're wearing the same piece of cloth over your mouth all day. Healthcare workers change their masks with every patient. But these cloth masks can be worn for hours at a time, with people tugging on them to adjust them or repeatedly taking them off and putting them back on. If there is virus on the mask, they're getting it on their hands and spreading it everywhere they touch or on every surface that the masks touch. The concern about germs building up on the mask are why health care professionals use disposable masks. Yet, an ordinary person is supposed to drag around the same germ-ridden piece of cloth all day. That's what hasn't been studied, although I've read concerns expressed about it.

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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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From the Senate hearing... Dr. Fauci acknowledged reopening too soon will have devastating consequences on the American people. He was pretty clear. If "states or cities or regions" disregard the government's "checkpoints" on when it's safe to pull back from mitigation measures there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control, which, in fact, paradoxically, will set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery. We would almost turn the clock back, rather than going forward"

I don’t understand why he isn’t listening to Fox News and reading Breitbart on this issue. He’s clearly a Democrat operative.

- Doc

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Jersey Girl
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 4:37 pm
From the Senate hearing... Dr. Fauci acknowledged reopening too soon will have devastating consequences on the American people. He was pretty clear. If "states or cities or regions" disregard the government's "checkpoints" on when it's safe to pull back from mitigation measures there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control, which, in fact, paradoxically, will set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery. We would almost turn the clock back, rather than going forward"

I don’t understand why he isn’t listening to Fox News and reading Breitbart on this issue. He’s clearly a Democrat operative.

- Doc
Fell asleep listening to the hearing so I have to go back and finish it. I did hear the above comment from Fauci. Thank god we are hearing from these people without Trump hovering over them or their having to correct a stupid Trump comment right in front of him. I don't know how many times during White House press briefings that Fauci was forced to say this thing isn't going to magically disappear.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Res Ipsa »

Washington starts full court press on contact tracing today. Isolation/quarantine is required for the entire household, with a person assigned to monitor/assist. 1800 trained tracers today, with more to be trained. All symptomatic folks tested. Results in 24 hours. Testing of close contacts in 48 hours. Lock and load.

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Jersey Girl
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

RI I spoke to my medical practice about the antibody test. They referred me to Lab Corp with my question. Went to the Lab Corp website. Here's one of the links where it discusses the test.

https://www.labcorp.com/antibody-testing

p.s. She said that in order to take the test you have to have had a confirmed case. That's not what they said yesterday and the Lab Corp website doesn't say that at all. I told her I was looking right at it and the only criteria stated was if you think you may have had the virus. This was the front desk I spoke to today. :rolleyes: I'll just have to send a message directly to my PCP and find out about it. You would think the front desk would be well prepared to answer questions on testing. But no.

EAllusion
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Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

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[quote]Context. If my recollection is correct, WHO from the beginning recommended that the sick wear surgical masks when in close contact, like when a health care provider or someone in their household is in the same room. That's different than the current cloth covering practice that's being promoted. If you're an essential worker going to the workplace, unless you don't work in proximity to others, you're wearing the same piece of cloth over your mouth all day. Healthcare workers change their masks with every patient. But these cloth masks can be worn for hours at a time, with people tugging on them to adjust them or repeatedly taking them off and putting them back on. If there is virus on the mask, they're getting it on their hands and spreading it everywhere they touch or on every surface that the masks touch. The concern about germs building up on the mask are why health care professionals use disposable masks. Yet, an ordinary person is supposed to drag around the same germ-ridden piece of cloth all day. That's what hasn't been studied, although I've read concerns expressed about it.[/quote]

The context I'm replying to are early posts in this thread. You in particular seemed really down on mask use, including N95 use. It came up a few times when I reread the early part of the thread. Perhaps I have you mistaken with someone else, but I believe I read you advising that masks are more appropriate if you are sick, but otherwise forgo them. But if they're appropriate if you're sick, then they're appropriate if you might be sick. It's just casting a wider net.

Unpacking your comments here, my partner at one point was down to being issued two masks to have indefinitely. Then was upgraded to one mask a day. Now things are tentatively better, though there is a warning that reductions could happen if the surge hits. Masks should be one use per patient, but if that's not possible, the judgement is that something is better than nothing.

There's a lot of uncertainty about how effective mask use is for reducing the transmission rate, though it is still standard to advise people to wear them if they think they are sick and by default in a health care setting (with that practice obviously spreading outward.) I take it simply that if it's more plausible to reduce transmission than increase it, which is the case, then in the middle of a sweeping epidemic, you probably should do it.

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