The coronavirus spread updated in real time

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated G through PG-13.
Post Reply
User avatar
Chap
God
Posts: 13969
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 4:23 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Chap »

EAllusion wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:15 am
They want all of the freedom, and none of the responsibility.
Oh - we've seen that before:
... power without responsibility – the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.
Stanley Baldwin, British Prime Minister, March 17, 1931

User avatar
ajax18
God
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:56 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by ajax18 »

Only, the infection doesn't necessarily end with them. If they get infected, they might infect someone else through no choice of their own.
How do I infect someone if that person is staying home?

User avatar
Jersey Girl
God
Posts: 33223
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:16 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

ajax18 wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 1:35 pm
Only, the infection doesn't necessarily end with them. If they get infected, they might infect someone else through no choice of their own.
How do I infect someone if that person is staying home?
Are the people at home eating food?

EAllusion
God
Posts: 18013
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by EAllusion »

[quote]How do I infect someone if that person is staying home?[/quote]

It's kinda funny how much the subtexts of your posts are contempt for your family.

Aside from the people one would think you wouldn't forget about, people occasionally have to brave going outside. The idea is that people keep that to a minimum by only doing what is necessary. That's why grocery stores are open. You making it more likely they will encounter a deadly disease when doing so is not good. You're stumbling around drunk with a loaded gun in a public place, then blaming people for exposing themselves to you for having made their choice. FREEEEEDOOOOOOM!

While I'm sure lots of people can put off their eye exams, there's a good argument that at least for some people, eye examination is more urgent, so it's worth keeping access open to your service as safely as possible. You very well might be an essential worker. You shouldn't have to have your lungs risked because someone really wants a professional haircut and can't wait. And I know you think, "that's my choice" but it isn't everyone's choice to accept that kind of risk. "Your freedom ends at my nose" logic includes viral shedding.

User avatar
Doctor CamNC4Me
God
Posts: 20858
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:02 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

It's weird how Ajax keeps getting his questions answered, but he refuses to have a conversation in good faith and answer our questions. Additionally, his questions have a sort of doggedly r____ quality to them, where they're both asked and stated at the same time belying willful stupidity rather than cleverness. It's akin to subgenius doing his drive-by posting, where he'll skim something quickly, fart out a stupidity, and then move on without ever having advanced his thinking.

- Doc

EAllusion
God
Posts: 18013
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by EAllusion »

I took a look at some of the early posts in this thread to see the evolution of thought. For the most part, posters here were sharp about what's going on given the information at the time. Mistakes, Res Ipsa downplaying the likelihood of asymptomatic spread for instance, generally reflect the quality of available information. The biggest regrettable idea I get from those comments is that instead of saying only sick people should wear masks, it should've been people should be encouraged to wear masks by default just in case they're sick.

The two worst early takes I could find are Dr. Exiled with:

[quote]There is this article that says the beginning of the end might be here for the coronavirus:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronaupdate.html

Hopefully the data that backs up the article isn't being massaged somehow.[/quote]

and Honor with:

[quote]Meanwhile, the millions of cases of flu and 10's of thousands of deaths from it this year are meh.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

Perspective. Yeah we don't know much about coronavirus but people get better after contracting it. Fatality rate is around 2% which is quite a bit higher than the flu but no where near the scary diseases like ebola or even SARS. Its unknown qualities and associated caution are necessary and drawing intense attention but it's a small blip compared to the deadly illnesses that are routine among us.[/quote]

Interestingly, both very much reflect the type of sources they prefer at the time: Dr. Exiled with his John Bircher descended far right conspiracist contrarianism and Honor with very serious person punditry that was indulging in more-rational-than-thou don't panic messaging that downplayed the threat. Accordingly, you'd expect Dr. Exiled to [i]still[/i] be flirting with kooksville and Honor to accept that was a regrettable underreaction.

The right-wing troll posters were staying away from the thread during that time.

User avatar
Jersey Girl
God
Posts: 33223
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:16 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

ajax18 you are a doctor are you not? Do you naïvely think that the people staying at home have been staying at home for the past 8 weeks? Do you think they haven't had to go out to pick up groceries, fill RX's, go to an urgent care appointment? Do you think no one has visited them to deliver groceries? They aren't getting packages? They aren't going to the mailbox to pick up mail?

You'll probably say, well, so long as everyone else they come in contact with has been wearing a mask and social distancing, there shouldn't be a problem.

And yet, there is.

Over the past 8 weeks...I've observed these things.

Walmart inside: About 3 weeks ago after a grocery pick up I decided to go inside the store and see what it looked like. This was before the orders were starting to be eased up. I went inside double masked. I was in there for less than 10 minutes. I observed social distancing in practice for the most part, I also observed that many customers weren't wearing masks.

Walmart grocery pick up this past week: I arrived double masked...in my car. The new rules say this is no contact pick up, don't roll your windows down. The older gentleman who approached my car needed to check that I was indeed, me. I had to roll down my window a bit and then popped the back from inside the car so he could load. He was wearing a mask and that would've been great except for the fact that his nose wasn't covered. Go figure. I drove by the front of the store (this is after the orders were eased up) and observed several individuals and whole families going inside the store unmasked.

Walmart Pharmacy pick up same day: Line of cars waiting to use the pick up system. Everyone and their dog touches the key pad including the person you are immediately following. Fortunately, I've got the process down to a fine art.

Little local store: I had to go inside a little mom/pop type store here in my own town last week. I walked in double masked. They had hand sanitizer on the counter. The cashier (who was obviously stressed to the max) was bitching about people not wearing their masks in compliance with the sign the owner posted outside the store because when she reminded them they were giving her ____ for it. She wasn't wearing a mask. While I was there I sanitized my card and hands before I left. On the way out, 3 customers arrived. Two were masked, one was not.

So that is just my experience. People have to get food/RX's either inside the stores, picked up in the parking lots or delivered to their homes. If my Walmart delivered to my area (no one delivers here except the local pizza place) I would still have to contend with ungloved people delivering food to my front deck because my guess is they are ungloved just like the grocery pick up folks are.

And then you've got folks who are staying at home because they are high risk who live with folks who are going out.

You can't figure that out? Epidemiology wasn't part of your course work? It was mine and I'm a freaking preschool teacher/administrator.

You are embarrassing yourself here.
Last edited by Jersey Girl on Mon May 11, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Lemmie
God
Posts: 10031
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2015 1:25 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Lemmie »

ajax18 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 10:59 am

...I still haven't met someone with Covid but I've met plenty of people unemployed and ruined economically because of it
I apologize in advance for the crudeness of my following example, but Ajax’s lack of logic here is beyond irritatating. I apologize for going back to this if someone already covered it, but anyway...

The last time anecdotal evidence like Ajax’s above meant anything was when there were 20 humans on the planet in two tribes, and all ten of the people In one tribe were starving and didn’t have enough food, and a person from the other tribe told them that eating food would cause a monkey to emerge from one’s butt. (Apologies to Jim Carrey’s portrayal of the powers of god.)

In that case, and that case ALONE, the ten humans would be justified in continuing to search for food to eat on the basis of their own anecdotal evidence. Ajax’s argument meets no such conditions.

User avatar
Jersey Girl
God
Posts: 33223
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:16 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

EAllusion wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 10:05 am
Hey, a story close to Jersey Girl:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/color ... b-enus-280

This is a follow-up from the viral story on their posting they had not that long ago.

Not a mask to be seen. No meaningful distancing.
Yep. This is why my butt is sitting out here in the sticks. Someone is going to end up getting shot over these kinds of conflicts. Wait for it. I can socially distance like a boss right where I am. :lol:

User avatar
ajax18
God
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:56 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by ajax18 »

This was a good summary of how I feel about this. I can't stay unemployed for the next couple years. Thankfully that part is hopefully over for me. And Jersey Girl good luck getting a job with amazon or the grocery store. Who wants to hire someone that isn't going to be there for more than a month or so? Have you tried finding a job recently?

“There are those wanting to reopen yet they’re being classified as selfish. There are those that rely on all kinds of people to supply them while they cower in fear at home. Isn’t that being selfish too?
You expect your garbage to be picked up, you expect the grocery store to be open so you can get milk, you expect truck drivers to supply the stores, you expect farmers, meatpackers, fruit and vegetable pickers all to keep food in that grocery store.
You expect Amazon to still ship all the things you’re ordering while you sit at home shopping. You expect the delivery driver to leave it on your doorstep. You expect your phone to work, your power to stay on, and your mail to show up rain, sleet, or shine. And most important, you expect the doctors and nurses to be there if you need them although many of them across the country have been furloughed because their units and services have been shut down while the entire system focuses only on COVID19.
The whole premise of shelter in place is based on the arrogant idea that others must risk their health so you can protect yours. There is nothing virtuous about ignoring the largely invisible army required to allow people to shelter in place.
I know there are some of you that are screaming mad about what I just said but stop and really think about what is allowing you to stay safe in your home.
I truly believe that with some common sense on my part, I could easily go back to life as it was. I want to go to restaurants, I want to shop at the little store just up the road.
And yes, I could catch COVID-19. I could also catch the flu or a cold. I could get run over by a bus. I could get struck by lightning. We take risks everyday. If you choose to stay home, that is absolutely your choice. And please don’t start screaming at me about how I’ll just spread it. Why are you worried? You won’t get it because you’re staying in your home. Are you going to shelter in place every time a new strand of the flu happens?
Our economy can’t withstand much more of this. If our economy collapses, so will the rest of the world’s. If that happens, you will see the rise of tyrants.
I absolutely don’t want people to die...from COVID or anything else. I want people to live.
But sheltering in place is not living.
Last edited by ajax18 on Mon May 11, 2020 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

EAllusion
God
Posts: 18013
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by EAllusion »

[quote]The whole premise of shelter in place is based on the arrogant idea that others must risk their health so you can protect yours.[/quote]

The idea is to reduce the amount of risk they face by keeping infectious spread to a minimum?

Where is it riskier for grocery store clerks?

A) New Zealand or B) America?

People stay away from public gatherings and reduce interactions because this reduces the rate of transmission of a deadly disease. Because some activities requiring social interaction are necessary to keep society functioning, those people continue on. Ideally that's done as safely as possible, but here in America that's proving to be a mixed bag. Behaving in such a way that they face more ambient risk of disease because you can't be bothered to think about how your actions affect others is what is selfish. Staying away when you can doesn't make them take on more risk. It makes them take on less.

In other contexts, you point to your renewed faith making you a better person and those lacking it facing a life of despair and amorality. But here you are, proudly proclaiming yourself to be a selfish, moral black hole of a human being.

[quote]
I truly believe that with some common sense on my part, I could easily go back to life as it was. I want to go to restaurants, I want to shop at the little store just up the road.[/quote]

See, this even isn't about government intervention at this point. You just want to have to stop worrying about this whole protecting others business as it is interfering with a life you want to return to ASAP.

[quote]And yes, I could catch COVID-19. I could also catch the flu or a cold. I could get run over by a bus. I could get struck by lightning. We take risks everyday.[/quote]Welp. Might as well start freebasing cocaine while playing Russian roulette. Because you could be hit by lightening anyway.

Not all risks are equal Ajax. Even for yourself. But there are other people. You are not the only person who exists.

[quote]Why are you worried? You won’t get it because you’re staying in your home. [/quote]Most people aren't staying home all the time. They are minimizing their trips to risky areas. There's a big difference. People need to get food, and not everyone can manage this without going somewhere to get it.

[quote]Are you going to shelter in place every time a new strand of the flu happens?[/quote]Fortunately, COVID-like risk doesn't happen all that often.

User avatar
ajax18
God
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:56 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by ajax18 »

The idea is to reduce the amount of risk they face by keeping infectious spread to a minimum?
At what cost? Is unemployment going to be this high for the next 2 to 3 years? Are we going to do this every time a virus like this shows up?

EAllusion
God
Posts: 18013
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by EAllusion »

[quote]
At what cost?[/quote]

The economic cost of a plague ripping unimpeded through society is catastrophic. Finding a way for people to stay apart long enough to develop a system for testing people for the disease and isolating them as appropriate is the approach that provides the least economic pain. You're making it worse Ajax.

Maybe because you're finally able to be open, there's a 10 year old child somewhere who has been crying every day because she gets bad headaches when she tries to read who will finally get glasses. And that's wonderful. Thank goodness for you. And then, a few days later, you run into her and her dad at the small shop up the road and say hi. You talk about all the books she is reading again now that she can see. But because you've been a selfish asshat, you've been all around town to get life back to normal and have contracted COVID. You pass it along to her. She gets a little sick. Her parents take care of her, but her first her Dad falls ill, then her Mom. Mom gets very sick, but eventually gets back on her feet. Dad, unfortunately, is hospitalized and eventually dies. Because of you. Because you can't be bothered to sacrifice a little for the time being.

"Life is full of risks" you say in a bad French accent before you take a hard drag on a clove cigarette and drink Vermouth straight out of the bottle. Only some risks don't have to be taken and maybe you should think about other people when taking them.

User avatar
Jersey Girl
God
Posts: 33223
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:16 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

ajax18 wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 2:52 pm
This was a good summary of how I feel about this. I can't stay unemployed for the next couple years. Thankfully that part is hopefully over for me. And Jersey Girl good luck getting a job with amazon or the grocery store. Who wants to hire someone that isn't going to be there for more than a month or so? Have you tried finding a job recently?
I don't know what you are trying to say here. Why are you asking me about getting a job with amazon or a grocery store? Is that on account of an earlier post I made on this or another thread about them hiring? If so, that was in direct response to you (why do I have to do all the work here, ajax?) saying how people are unemployed and need to go to work and I said if they need to work they can go to work as an essential worker like President Cuomo advised.

Why are you asking who wants to hire someone who isn't going to be there for more than a month or so (again, why am I doing the heavy lifting here to try to get you to respond in context so we can create a cohesive conversation here?)? Are you talking about me staying at home? If so you are mixing up the context in which two very different series of exchanges was taking place. One having nothing to do with the other and yet there you are cobbling them together as if they made sense.

No, I haven't tried to find a job recently. I don't need a job. I'm sitting my butt on acreage out in the sticks in a custom built home that was paid for the day we moved into it 3 decades ago, we are both retired now, we are financially free, we owe nothing to no one except to keep the lights on/insurance paid. Why? Because at any given point in our lives we made smart and cautious decisions about money. Never lived beyond our means and we still don't. In terms of our overall financial history, we're rolling in dough and have what we need to live a nice life.

So there you have it.

Your problem is that, unlike the Apostle Paul, you have never learned to be content regardless of your circumstances.

User avatar
ajax18
God
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:56 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by ajax18 »

I'm personally don't go to the gym anymore. But I am going to work albeit at a reduced rate Work is where I draw the line. We have got to find way to keep people working.

User avatar
Jersey Girl
God
Posts: 33223
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:16 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

ajax18 wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 3:19 pm
The idea is to reduce the amount of risk they face by keeping infectious spread to a minimum?
At what cost? Is unemployment going to be this high for the next 2 to 3 years? Are we going to do this every time a virus like this shows up?
Why are you asking this? It's like you don't know what's going on in the world. Here on these recent exchanges you've got EAllusion who is like brainiac extraordinaire level and me a freaking retired ECE professional and I assure you that we both have a good idea what's going on (though EAllusion can articulate it better because brainiac man over there plus he's more well rounded than I am in his ability assess data and all kinds of political ____, and don't get me started on his memory skills) in the world and what's your deal?

Is unemployment going to be this high for the next 2-3 years?

Not if the current research on (I'm doing it again, I'm having to try to inform you when by rights you should be informing ME) therapeutic treatments pans out and they come up with protocols that work to treat the virus and hopefully next year or late next year a viable vaccine emerges.

We're treading water right now. What don't you understand about that? We're trying to hold back the tide and buy ourselves time until the science hopefully catches up with it. Is the economy going to suffer? Yes. Is life going to change? Yes. And, you best get your head on straight about it. You're going to lose something. You're going to sacrifice something. Everyone of us is. Everyone one of us has already lost something in the pandemic. We have to ride this out.

Unless of course you let Trump tuck you in every night with his bedtime fairy tales about how this is all going to disappear and it'll be like a miracle.

You want a play dough recipe? Got any child behaviors you'd like to address? Because that's the stuff I should be telling you about and not the science that you yourself should be following and quite frankly, helping the rest of us to better understand.

But you don't do that.

You are bitching. You are constantly bitching about whatever thing as if you are a helpless victim and you yourself don't have a part in your own ability to succeed and/or withstand it. What don't you understand about pandemic, doctor?

You must learn to be content in your circumstance and resilient in your response. Geez if Jersey Boy came out with the ____ you do I'd have him straightened out in under 15 minutes. You wouldn't last 5 seconds in conflict with me.

That's not you is it, Jersey Boy?
:lol:

User avatar
Jersey Girl
God
Posts: 33223
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:16 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Jersey Girl »

ajax18 wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 4:13 pm
I'm personally don't go to the gym anymore. But I am going to work albeit at a reduced rate Work is where I draw the line. We have got to find way to keep people working.
Doctor, right now we are trying to find a way to keep people alive AND working. As President Cuomo's budget wizard said the other day and this is as succinct as it gets...

"We're building the plane while we're flying it." ~ can't recall her name at the moment, but she's golden.

Our job is to hang on and not lose our ____ over it. You can't work if you're dead.

I gotta go. Don't say another word to me, do you hear me? I'm off to watch Macbeth from the Globe.

And turn down that FOX ____, down there!
:lol:

User avatar
Res Ipsa
God
Posts: 9890
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:37 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Res Ipsa »

EAllusion wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 1:57 pm
I took a look at some of the early posts in this thread to see the evolution of thought. For the most part, posters here were sharp about what's going on given the information at the time. Mistakes, Res Ipsa downplaying the likelihood of asymptomatic spread for instance, generally reflect the quality of available information. The biggest regrettable idea I get from those comments is that instead of saying only sick people should wear masks, it should've been people should be encouraged to wear masks by default just in case they're sick.

The two worst early takes I could find are Dr. Exiled with:
There is this article that says the beginning of the end might be here for the coronavirus:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronaupdate.html

Hopefully the data that backs up the article isn't being massaged somehow.
and Honor with:
Meanwhile, the millions of cases of flu and 10's of thousands of deaths from it this year are meh.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

Perspective. Yeah we don't know much about coronavirus but people get better after contracting it. Fatality rate is around 2% which is quite a bit higher than the flu but no where near the scary diseases like ebola or even SARS. Its unknown qualities and associated caution are necessary and drawing intense attention but it's a small blip compared to the deadly illnesses that are routine among us.
Interestingly, both very much reflect the type of sources they prefer at the time: Dr. Exiled with his John Bircher descended far right conspiracist contrarianism and Honor with very serious person punditry that was indulging in more-rational-than-thou don't panic messaging that downplayed the threat. Accordingly, you'd expect Dr. Exiled to still be flirting with kooksville and Honor to accept that was a regrettable underreaction.

The right-wing troll posters were staying away from the thread during that time.
Yep. There was an early poorly done study that claims asymptomatic transmission. Since then there is much better evidence of pre and asymptomatic transmission, which shows both are occurring. I do my best to stick to reliable evidence and am happy to change my mind when the evidence warrants. I’m not convinced that wearing the same cloth mask all day actually reduces transmission, but for shopping trips, etc., I doubt it does any harm. But if we get some reliable evidence about using the same cloth mask all day is developed, I’d be happy to change my mind.

Are you feeling better these days, EAllusion?

User avatar
ajax18
God
Posts: 6400
Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:56 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by ajax18 »

But what about the people that work at the gym? The gym may not be essential to me but it sure is them.

User avatar
Some Schmo
God
Posts: 14962
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2007 8:59 am

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Some Schmo »

If your work has the potential to kill large numbers of people, shouldn't you try to find other work?

Oh wait... West Virginia... coal miners... now I understand.

Forget it.

User avatar
Res Ipsa
God
Posts: 9890
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 5:37 pm

Re: The coronavirus spread updated in real time

Post by Res Ipsa »

The false dichotomy of health v. Jobs is getting old. Restarting the economy is not just a matter of people going back to work. It requires consumers to have enough confidence to resume normal spending and a way to prevent the virus of resuming exponential growth (both are linked). I doubt I’ll go to a movie in the foreseeable future. I won’t fly or set foot on a cruise ship before I’m vaccinated or the virus is no longer circulating in the US. Crowds are out. Luckily, I know enough hikes that aren’t popular enough to be a problem. If I were in a state that reopened near the peak of its epidemic curve, I’d continue to shelter in place as much as possible. And I doubt I’m the only one making these kinds of calculations. Handle this wrong, and your state gets both overrun hospitals and a crashed economy.

Post Reply