Wager for Trump Supporters

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Chap
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Chap »

Some comparisons for the future. Wonder how Trump will do on these:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38663043

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Zadok:
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subgenius
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by subgenius »

Res Ipsa wrote:... (snip)...fair amount of delusion...among liberals.

Nuff said
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Kevin Graham
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

From Sean Hannity's speech January 2016:

The labor participation rate is near a 40-year low and has been under 63 percent now for 21 consecutive months. And instead of putting people back to work, under this president, the number of Americans dependent on government is surging. A near record 45 million Americans currently receive food stamps.


The labor participation rate, which is what the Right Wing media used to discredit low unemployment numbers throughout the Obama administration, was at 62.9% in January 2017 and after six months of Trump's pro-jobs "get Americans back to work" policies, is now at.... 62.9%.

Guess how many times "Labor Participation Rate" has been talked about in Right Wing media this year?

Also, the number of households receiving Food Stamp benefits peaked in 2013 at 23 million. That number has been gradually dropping ever since.

In January of this year that number was at 21,115,830. The number currently stands at 20,531,156.

Guess how many times the Right Wing media has raised the issue of American households on food stamps?

The CCC
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Remember that time a Heritage Foundation shill tried to give Drumpf credit for the Obama economy.
SEE http://crooksandliars.com/2017/08/time- ... give-trump

This is a lot of fun to watch. Tim Doescher, a Heritage Foundation shill, comes on AM Joy to sing the economic praises of Donald Trump, and Joy Reid brings on Austan Goolsbee, former economic advisor to President Obama. (Which is the equivalent of the "Annie Hall" scene where Woody Allen brings out Marshall McLuhan to bolster his point against a fellow movie-goer.)

Doescher is lauding Trump for creating over one million jobs.

"This is a big win for Americans. This is a big win for coal miners in West Virginia, this is a big win for manufacturers right here in Detroit where I am, and so I don't really see this as something of obama's. this is definitely of Trump's," he said.

"Hold on a second," Reid said.

"You're saying that Trump hasn't signed any legislation that's made the economy grow, but he deserves credit for the economy but Barack Obama, who had eight years of signing legislation in policy, deserves no credit. Could we show the chart for job, so Obama deserves no credit for this, started off in the red and finished quite well, he deserves no credit but Donald Trump in seven months deserves all the credit?"

And it went downhill from there. Reid then drew Goolsbee into the conversation.

"I'll let you take this is being argued by your fellow Tim, Donald Trump, just the way he speaks, has made the economy flower but that Barack Obama in eight years did nothing," she said.

"Look, we've had, I believe, 84 months in a row of job growth, and the last six of those have been under Donald Trump. It's like a guy built a house and sold it to someone and that person walked in and turned the lights on and said, hey, look at this house I built," Goolsbee said.

Goolsbee said the economy was a continuation of the growth under Obama. "I would simply point out that when it happened under President Obama, it was Donald Trump himself saying you can't trust the statistics, these are all lies. There aren't this many jobs getting created, and literally with fewer jobs being created in the same statistics, Donald Trump is now saying, 'Look what I did!' "

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Chap
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Chap »

The CCC wrote:This is a lot of fun to watch.


Yup. It's hilarious.

I do hope that this guy was just doing the job the Heritage Foundation pays him for, and that he did not believe the nonsense he spouted - and which was so immediately deflated by showing the charts online that showed, for instance, that Trump's rate of job creation so far is actually a bit less than in 2016 under Trump.

Oh yes - and you know those employment figures that Trump said were completely misleading when people cited them under Obama? Well, Trump is relying on the exact same data source to claim his alleged (but not actual) success since he took office.

Now who would have expected that?
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.

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cinepro
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Kevin Graham wrote:From Sean Hannity's speech January 2016:

The labor participation rate is near a 40-year low and has been under 63 percent now for 21 consecutive months. And instead of putting people back to work, under this president, the number of Americans dependent on government is surging. A near record 45 million Americans currently receive food stamps.


The labor participation rate, which is what the Right Wing media used to discredit low unemployment numbers throughout the Obama administration, was at 62.9% in January 2017 and after six months of Trump's pro-jobs "get Americans back to work" policies, is now at.... 62.9%.

Guess how many times "Labor Participation Rate" has been talked about in Right Wing media this year?


Assuming you classify Fox News and Fox Business as "Right Wing media", it would appear at least maybe 10 times?

https://www.google.com/search?q=fox+new ... 8&oe=utf-8

You could also search other news outlets that you consider "Right Wing" to get additional data.

Or was that a rhetorical question?

Also, the number of households receiving Food Stamp benefits peaked in 2013 at 23 million. That number has been gradually dropping ever since.

In January of this year that number was at 21,115,830. The number currently stands at 20,531,156.

Guess how many times the Right Wing media has raised the issue of American households on food stamps?


Again, it looks like Fox News has mentioned it at least a couple times:

https://www.google.com/search?safe=off& ... ood+stamps

Obviously the bigger questions are how much control the President has over the economy in general, and over specific measures of the economy specifically, and even so, how long it would take for Presidential actions to be reflected in numbers?

I'm guessing not a lot, not a lot, and a long time (certainly longer than six months).

Relevant Podcast:

How Much Does the President Really Matter?

I also wouldn't compare any subsequent President to Obama on the economy, since Obama entered office under exceptional circumstances so there is no way anyone could match any comparative statistics for growth, whether it was Sanders, Clinton, Trump or anyone else.

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subgenius
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by subgenius »

I believe most economists consider the previous adminitration's economy to be influential through the first, and maybe second, financial quarters of the new administration. While this may have been the past trend, it may not be the current trend. And I believe Obama supporters blamed Bush for well over 2 quarters....well over.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent

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Chap
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Chap »

subgenius wrote:And I believe Obama supporters blamed Bush for well over 2 quarters....well over.


Of course they did.

But suppose somebody suggested that your reasoning might be a little bit circular in this respect?
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.

Kevin Graham
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

Again, it looks like Fox News has mentioned it at least a couple times:


I clicked on the link to see those examples and here is the context:

Jul 4, 2017 -After the food stamp rolls swelled for years under the Obama administration, fresh figures show a dramatic reduction in states that recently have moved to restore work requirements.


May 22, 2017 - President Trump is calling for major cuts to Medicaid and food stamps


Mar 3, 2017 - The cost of Food Stamps, or SNAP (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), has ballooned the past two decades.


So yeah, I stand by my claim of hypocrisy in the Right Wing media. When the numbers are bad during a Democrat administration it is because of the President. When the numbers are bad during a Republican administration, it is because of some other reason.

Assuming you classify Fox News and Fox Business as "Right Wing media", it would appear at least maybe 10 times?


In the context of blaming Trump? Never. Correlation only equals causation when a bad cause correlates to a Democrat President.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

subgenius wrote:I believe most economists consider the previous adminitration's economy to be influential through the first, and maybe second, financial quarters of the new administration. While this may have been the past trend, it may not be the current trend. And I believe Obama supporters blamed Bush for well over 2 quarters....well over.


I heard Rush Limbaugh attribute the booming Clinton years to not only Bush, but also Reagan. Republicans are nothing if not inconsistent. From Cheney's famous "deficits don't matter" to their sudden concern for the debt under a Democrat President. I don't know that economists generally draw a line in the timeline sand as to when a new President should be credited the state of the economy, but I suspect it is a case by case basis depending on what policies are enacted. Thus far Trump has done nothing legislatively and he's trying to take credit for an economy that has been clearly on the upswing for years.

It is laughable listening to these people brag about the DOW breaking 20,000 for the first time ever under Trump. Had they really been paying any attention to the DOW beyond the last six months they's know it broke records some 30 different times under Obama. But in each instance that happened the Right Wing media downplayed it or ignored it. I also laugh when they speak of amazing job numbers like 200,000 in 4 out of 6 months during Trump. That happened 10 times in 2014, twice going over 300,000. Trump's admin has created on average just 179,000 per month and suddenly he's called the job creator.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by The CCC »

Chap wrote:Of course they did.

But suppose somebody suggested that your reasoning might be a little bit circular in this respect?

President Obama entered the office when the US was losing about 3/4 million jobs per month.

Also remember that Republicans blamed Obama for the response to hurricane Katrina.
SEE https://thinkprogress.org/more-louisian ... 6990dc25a/

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Doctor CamNC4Me
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Doctor CamNC4Me »

Even God couldn't ____ a turd this foul.

https://news.vice.com/story/trump-folde ... hite-house

Twice a day since the beginning of the Trump administration, a special folder is prepared for the president. The first document is prepared around 9:30 a.m. and the follow-up, around 4:30 p.m. Former Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and former Press Secretary Sean Spicer both wanted the privilege of delivering the 20-to-25-page packet to President Trump personally, White House sources say.

These sensitive papers, described to VICE News by three current and former White House officials, don’t contain top-secret intelligence or updates on legislative initiatives. Instead, the folders are filled with screenshots of positive cable news chyrons (those lower-third headlines and crawls), admiring tweets, transcripts of fawning TV interviews, praise-filled news stories, and sometimes just pictures of Trump on TV looking powerful.


One White House official said the only feedback the White House communications shop, which prepares the folder, has ever gotten in all these months is: “It needs to be more ____ positive.”


- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.

Understanding the world as an amoral, chaotic system that is in a constant flux of competing entities all driven by an innate biological determinism is both redpilled and blackpilled.

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Icarus
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Icarus »

Official unemployment rate: 14.7%
U6 unemployment rate: 22.8%
Labor Participation Rate: 60.2%
Federal debt: $25+ trillion
Federal deficit: $984 billion (2019) $3+ trillion (2020)

EAllusion
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

[quote=EAllusion post_id=1014124 time=1478802890 user_id=1078]barring some sort of absolutely catastrophic, world-altering event that no one wants to see.
[/quote]

Whoops.

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Icarus
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Icarus »

EAllusion wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:34 am
EAllusion wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:34 pm
barring some sort of absolutely catastrophic, world-altering event that no one wants to see.
Whoops.
You nailed it.

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subgenius
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by subgenius »

Icarus wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:04 am
Official unemployment rate: 14.7%
U6 unemployment rate: 22.8%
Labor Participation Rate: 60.2%
Federal debt: $25+ trillion
Federal deficit: $984 billion (2019) $3+ trillion (2020)
how ignorant for you to post pandemic statistics in the context of this thread.
Thanks for stopping by!

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honorentheos
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by honorentheos »

subgenius wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 4:48 pm
Icarus wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:04 am
Official unemployment rate: 14.7%
U6 unemployment rate: 22.8%
Labor Participation Rate: 60.2%
Federal debt: $25+ trillion
Federal deficit: $984 billion (2019) $3+ trillion (2020)
how ignorant for you to post pandemic statistics in the context of this thread.
Thanks for stopping by!
Says the guy who spent 8 years arguing as if the great recession happened on Obama's watch so the best metric for measuring his performance was 2005...

Oh, and about Tara Reade. What day did that happen again? You said she remembered.

EAllusion
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

[quote]You nailed it.[/quote]

Meh. Looking back on my posts, Trump wasn't able to get Republican legislation passed on protectionism, but was able to have his trade war policies anyway due to an abuse of statutory authority that a Republican friendly court system and a sufficiently divided Congress would not stop. Non-partisan economic analysis consistently estimates that this cost the economy some growth, but it did not lead to a technical recession. Instead, we had a few years of continued modest growth carrying over from the same pattern in the Obama years that was a little worse than it should have been. That's all shot to hell now for other reasons.

My opinion on the upcoming elections still seems spot-on. Democrats winning a commanding landslide in 2018 to keep their Senate losses to only a modest defeat in particular seems on target. It was and is fairly conventional political science wisdom stuff, but I'm still gonna pat myself on the back there.

*pats self*

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Icarus
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Icarus »

subgenius wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 4:48 pm
Icarus wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 10:04 am
Official unemployment rate: 14.7%
U6 unemployment rate: 22.8%
Labor Participation Rate: 60.2%
Federal debt: $25+ trillion
Federal deficit: $984 billion (2019) $3+ trillion (2020)
how ignorant for you to post pandemic statistics in the context of this thread.
Thanks for stopping by!
You're going to blame COVID for the trillions Trump added to the debt? He's been doing this for years with nary a complaint from the GOP.

If this were Obama there is no doubt in anyone's mind you'd be using these same numbers against him. But you're ignorant for pretending these numbers have nothing to do with Trump. In any other administration we'd likely be heading towards a recession but that has been predicted for years anyway. But there is no denying the economic situation is infinitely worse when we have no leadership coming from the White House. As far as you know, had Obama been President this thing would have been adequately mitigated within the first couple of months and there would have been no need to shut down state economies.

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