Wager for Trump Supporters

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EAllusion
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

To put it in perspective, in 2018, there are 10 Senate seats up in states Trump won. In most of those, Trump won by a lot. There is one Republican seat up in a state Clinton won. That is the swing-state of Nevada. Democrats will also have to defend a few swing states they won.

There is an anti-incumbent edge to mid-term elections. This favors Democrats. But there is a demographic edge that favors Republicans in mid-terms related to the fact that old, rural, white people are more reliable voters than the cohorts that vote Democrat. The state of the economy is a wild-card.

If it's a 50/50 or even a slight edge to Republicans election, which is possible, Republicans picking up 8-12 seats is absolutely realistic. That means they would own 60-64 Senate seats. Democrats need to have a strong election to keep the damage down to a minimum. That's possible as well, but they need it. They also absolutely have to pick up a bunch of governorships (where the map is much more favorable to them) to have a shot at reversing gerrymandering trends in 2020.

Democrats are on the cusp of being smashed against the rocks by a party that has a psychopathic authoritarian in charge.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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EAllusion wrote:To put it in perspective, in 2018, there are 10 Senate seats up in states Trump won. In most of those, Trump won by a lot. There is one Republican seat up in a state Clinton won. That is the swing-state of Nevada. Democrats will also have to defend a few swing states they won.

There is an anti-incumbent edge to mid-term elections. This favors Democrats. But there is a demographic edge that favors Republicans in mid-terms related to the fact that old, rural, white people are more reliable voters than the cohorts that vote Democrat. The state of the economy is a wild-card.

If it's a 50/50 or even a slight edge to Republicans election, which is possible, Republicans picking up 8-12 seats is absolutely realistic. That means they would own 60-64 Senate seats. Democrats need to have a strong election to keep the damage down to a minimum. That's possible as well, but they need it. They also absolutely have to pick up a bunch of governorships (where the map is much more favorable to them) to have a shot at reversing gerrymandering trends in 2020.

Democrats are on the cusp of being smashed against the rocks by a party that has a psychopathic authoritarian in charge.


I agree. And there is a fair amount of delusion about this among liberals.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

EAllusion
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Res Ipsa wrote:
Thanks. What do you see as the likely impact of passing the Ryan budget?


I don't know. Part of the problem is that Trump is such a blank slate outside of his authoritarianism and cabal of nutjobs around him caused by the fact that insider Republican intellectuals completely abandoned his election campaign. This means we don't know what's going to pass. Trump is a big-government conservative to a degree that makes Bush look quaint. Ajax's concerns about the national deficit are about to get a whole lot more quiet. Enjoy that hypocrisy.

Trump wants to spend an uber-stimulus package for infrastructure (no doubt including his wall) that would dwarf Obama's stimulus package. Schumer and the Democrats seem ready to play ball with that. What will Republicans do with that? I have no bloody idea. I don't think anyone does.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Res Ipsa wrote:
I agree. And there is a fair amount of delusion about this among liberals.
Yes. The well-educated wonky types I like seem to be on the ball about it. But there's a lot of misunderstanding of the structural realities at work by the more partisan, hackey liberals that I'm reading. If Democrats don't luck into a well-timed national downturn, Republicans are going to own the government like they did during the gilded age. Only this time, the party itself much more like ldsfaqs than it is Mitt Romney.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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EAllusion wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:
Thanks. What do you see as the likely impact of passing the Ryan budget?


I don't know. Part of the problem is that Trump is such a blank slate outside of his authoritarianism and cabal of nutjobs around him caused by the fact that insider Republican intellectuals completely abandoned his election campaign. This means we don't know what's going to pass. Trump is a big-government conservative to a degree that makes Bush look quaint. Ajax's concerns about the national deficit are about to get a whole lot more quiet. Enjoy that hypocrisy.

Trump wants to spend an uber-stimulus package for infrastructure (no doubt including his wall) that would dwarf Obama's stimulus package. Schumer and the Democrats seem ready to play ball with that. What will Republicans do with that? I have no bloody idea. I don't think anyone does.


Yeah. Unknown territory. I tend to think that the house will pass the Ryan budget (with some minor tweaks) and the Senate will mostly go along with that. I guess the big question is whether Trump will sign or veto it? If a spending package for infrastructure gets a vote, I'm guessing it will be a standalone, which gives the congress a chance to reject it as budget busting.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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EAllusion wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:
I agree. And there is a fair amount of delusion about this among liberals.
Yes. The well-educated wonky types I like seem to be on the ball about it. But there's a lot of misunderstanding of the structural realities at work by the more partisan, hackey liberals that I'm reading. If Democrats don't luck into a well-timed national downturn, Republicans are going to own the government like they did during the gilded age. Only this time, the party itself much more like ldsfaqs than it is Mitt Romney.


Yeah, there is a great deal of over-reliance on racial demographic trends. As I hope they learned in this election, they don't have a lock on, say, the Hispanic vote even against a candidate like Trump.
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

EAllusion
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Res Ipsa wrote:Yeah, there is a great deal of over-reliance on racial demographic trends. As I hope they learned in this election, they don't have a lock on, say, the Hispanic vote even against a candidate like Trump.

Oh, yes. There's a lot of Democrats who have been crowing about their inevitable demographic triumph for ages that just don't understand how these things shift over time. They've been warned again and again that things don't work that way, but they won't listen. I'm reminded of the supposed "blue wall" they loved to cite that hopefully everyone now understands was idiotic like Nate Silver and others had been saying.

Make no mistake. Clinton barely lost here. And if things like the Comey letter (especially the Comey letter) didn't happen, she would've won as seemed certain a few weeks out. But now that Democrats have ceded the whitehouse, they are now on the opposite side of the very same trends that make presidential elections mostly a referendum on how things are going for the party in power. The only difference is they are opposed by a political party bent of kneecapping them via any means necessary and currently have some natural disadvantages in the federalist system.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Kevin Graham wrote:I agree with all of this but I thought these would be interesting categories to use since they have been the subject of Right Wing criticism throughout eight years of the Obama administration.


Fair enough. Based on what he said during the campaign, I'll be focusing on these to see if he's able to even come close to delivering what he promised:

Official unemployment rate: 4.9%
U6 unemployment rate: 9.5%
Labor Participation Rate: 62.5%
Federal debt: $19.8 trillion
Federal deficit: $500 billion
Federal Revenues: $3.34 Trillion
Trade deficit: $40 billion
Social Security Trust Fund: $27 trillion
Manufacturing jobs: 12.33 million
Percentage of Americans without Insurance: 9%

Maybe for social security a good metric would be "year of projected insolvency" (currently 2034)

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

Cinepro -

Trump also promised 6-8% annual GDP growth and that all your dreams would come true. I'm thinking that maybe, just maybe, he's not going to deliver on his promises. But, the beauty of Trump is that he'll either deny he ever said it or claim it happened even though it didn't with all the confidence in the world. The right-wing media will throw in an assist by running interference. And it won't matter. This isn't "no new taxes." If Trump's victory shows anything, is shows that it does not matter what politicians say they will do. Partisanship is too high, political memories are too short, and public understanding of policy and consequence is too shallow.

One thing I'm not seeing a lot of writing on, though is consistent with both the national Republican party today and authoritarians the world over, is that we're probably going to see Trump try politicize the non-partisan government statistics if those statistics threaten to paint a negative picture. I'm not sure you can count on the U3 or U6 existing like it does right now in 4 years if there's any chance those numbers would actually look noticeably worse. Then, like so much else, we'll have independent academic analyses that give an accurate picture and a conservative alternate reality. People can pick which one they believe based on confirmation bias.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by The CCC »

As more and more Baby Boomers retire the labor participation rate is going to decrease until 2029, at a minimum.

Kevin Graham
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

50 million americans without a job is another claim of his.

EAllusion
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

Trump also promised 25 million new jobs, which is basically mathematically impossible. But Trump also contradicts himself mid-sentence on a routine basis and denies saying things there's extensive tape of him saying. His promises mean nothing and his failure to keep them also means nothing.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

Forcing corporations to stop going overseas. Sound familiar?

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

Jesus. Buy the looks of what Trump is planning to spend on stimulus coupled with record tax cuts, the national debt is certain to skyrocket. $30 trillion by 2020?

A huge chunk of the Obama stimulus was tax cuts on middle class with modest spending on actual projects. Trump is planning a countrywide overhaul of our infrastructure including airports, a giving huge tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Kevin Graham wrote:Jesus. Buy the looks of what Trump is planning to spend on stimulus coupled with record tax cuts, the national debt is certain to skyrocket. $30 trillion by 2020?

A huge chunk of the Obama stimulus was tax cuts on middle class with modest spending on actual projects. Trump is planning a countrywide overhaul of our infrastructure including airports, a giving huge tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

This is what I kept trying to explain to Ajax over and over with his faux-concern over the deficit. Trump's stated plans will explode the deficit. It will buy some popularity securing short-term growth for economic crisis off in the future. It will be an economic disaster, though Trump might be out of office by the time the bill comes due. Non-partisan economic analysis from all over the political spectrum has come to this conclusion.

We just don't know to what extent this is going to make it through.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

Donald Trump’s proposal for $1 trillion worth of new infrastructure construction relies entirely on private financing, which industry experts say is likely to fall far short of adequately funding improvements to roads, bridges and airports.

The president-elect’s infrastructure plan largely boils down to a tax break in the hopes of luring capital to projects. He wants investors to put money into projects in exchange for tax credits totaling 82% of the equity amount. His plan anticipates that lost tax revenue would be recouped through new income-tax revenue from construction workers and business-tax revenue from contractors, making the proposal essentially cost-free to the government.


So he plans to negotiate with a corporation to fund the construction of a $200 million bridge in exchange for $164 million in tax credits?

WTF?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trum ... 1478884989

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cinepro
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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EAllusion wrote:Cinepro -

Trump also promised 6-8% annual GDP growth and that all your dreams would come true.


Do you have a source for that? I recall him saying 4% at some point, but I never heard 6 - 8%.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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cinepro wrote:
EAllusion wrote:Cinepro -

Trump also promised 6-8% annual GDP growth and that all your dreams would come true.


Do you have a source for that? I recall him saying 4% at some point, but I never heard 6 - 8%.

He shifted the numbers several times. His actual economic plan predicts 4% GDP growth to avoid fiscal catastrophe, and that's a unrealistic number.

He promised 5 or 6% in the last national debate:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-trump ... 14349.html

Then later, decided to indicate that it should be able to hit 8% like India:

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/OVdSUi ... uppor.html

That's more of an implied promise than an explicit one, so we can back off to 6%. That still would be insane.

Here's Trump promising all your dreams:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... ambitious/

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Kevin Graham wrote:
Donald Trump’s proposal for $1 trillion worth of new infrastructure construction relies entirely on private financing, which industry experts say is likely to fall far short of adequately funding improvements to roads, bridges and airports.

The president-elect’s infrastructure plan largely boils down to a tax break in the hopes of luring capital to projects. He wants investors to put money into projects in exchange for tax credits totaling 82% of the equity amount. His plan anticipates that lost tax revenue would be recouped through new income-tax revenue from construction workers and business-tax revenue from contractors, making the proposal essentially cost-free to the government.


So he plans to negotiate with a corporation to fund the construction of a $200 million bridge in exchange for $164 million in tax credits?

WTF?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trum ... 1478884989


And who ends up owning the bridge?
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

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cinepro
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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EAllusion wrote:He promised 5 or 6% in the last national debate:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-trump ... 14349.html

Then later, decided to indicate that it should be able to hit 8% like India:

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/OVdSUi ... uppor.html

That's more of an implied promise than an explicit one, so we can back off to 6%. That still would be insane.

Here's Trump promising all your dreams:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... ambitious/


One thing I've noticed over the past few days is that both Trump critics and supporters have terrible memories and reading comprehension. Almost anytime I've seen someone paraphrase something he supposedly said, when I find the actual source they're almost always wrong.

For example, a Trump supporter in my Facebook feed said took exception to the claim that Trump wanted to ban Muslim immigration, saying "he just proposed ban on entries into the country from countries currently heavily influenced or controlled by ISIS and other terrorist organizations." Well, this totally isn't true...

Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-rele ... mmigration


Regarding his claims on the future of the GDP, you've misrepresented his statements as "a promise." He isn't promising anything. His policies target 4%, and he looks at other countries like China and India that claim 6-8% and asks "Why can't we do that?" He's saying "I think we can do that." That's not a promise, it's a question. It's a hypothetical.

A promise would be "Elect me, and we will have 6% GDP growth!"

There will be enough promises broken in the coming months and years that you don't need to make anything up.

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MeDotOrg
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Here are 2 more 2020 questions:

How many fewer illegal immigrants are there due to the physical construction of the border wall?

How much money will Mexico have paid us for the wall?
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