Wager for Trump Supporters

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Kevin Graham
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Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

OK my fellow Trump supporters. This is your glorious moment and you are in a unique position to prove to the world you were right all along. So in four years we'll know for certain if Trump has the faintest clue about how to run a country. All we have to do is take the numbers from today and compare them to those in 2020. Here are some that come to mind, though I'm sure we could add to the list:

Official unemployment rate: 4.7%
U6 unemployment rate: 9.0%
Labor Participation Rate: 63.0%
Federal debt: $19.8 trillion
Federal deficit: $500 billion
Federal Revenues: $3.34 Trillion
Trade deficit: $40 billion
Social Security Trust Fund: $27 trillion
Manufacturing jobs: 12.33 million
Percentage of Americans without Insurance: 9%
Rate of Home Ownership: 63%
Inflation: < 2%
Cop killings: 46 in 2016
Avg gasoline price:$ 2.15

So unlike Obama, Trump enters office with a Republican Congress at his back willing to pass anything he proposes, so come 2020 there will be no excuse for any of those statistics heading in the wrong direction. I'll frame this post and we'll revisit it in 2020, and if Trump was able to improve on even half of those numbers then I will gladly eat crow. But if they're all worse in 2020 and you still support him, will you then admit that your support for him has nothing to do with a sincere belief that he is a better leader? Sounds like a fair wager to me, so what do you say?
Last edited by Kevin Graham on Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Philo Sofee
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Philo Sofee »

Fabulous idea Kevin!
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Some Schmo
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Some Schmo »

If I were a moron... er, I mean, Republican, I'd totally take that bet. The world will likely have blown up by then and I'd have to admit nothing.
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Jersey Girl
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Jersey Girl »

Kevin Graham wrote:OK my fellow Trump supporters. This is your glorious moment and you are in a unique position to prove to the world you were right all along.


So are you, Kevin.
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Gunnar »

I like your challenge too, Kevin. We'll see how things go between now and the end of his first term as President. I have a couple of questions, though. On the issue of number of food stamp recipients, would a trend in the right direction be an increase or decrease? Do you mean the number of people too impoverished to make ends meet without them, or the number of such people who actually get them?

On the price of gasoline, would an increase necessarily be a bad thing if it helps discourage wasteful use of energy, and encourage less dependence on fossil fuels?

Would a decrease in that price necessarily be a good thing if it encourages a more profligate use of fossil fuels, and discourages transitioning to more environmentally sound energy sources?
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Maxine Waters
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Maxine Waters »

Official unemployment rate: 4.9%


Labor participation rate is what should be used from now on.

And you're preaching to the choir. You guys have bullied anyone who leans right off this forum and created your own little bubble. That's why this took you by surprise.
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Res Ipsa »

Maxine Waters wrote:
Official unemployment rate: 4.9%


Labor participation rate is what should be used from now on.

And you're preaching to the choir. You guys have bullied anyone who leans right off this forum and created your own little bubble. That's why this took you by surprise.


So, add the LFPR to the other stats. Do you want to predict how many of these statistics will be better in four years and how many will be worse?
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Kevin Graham
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

Maxine Waters wrote:
Official unemployment rate: 4.9%


Labor participation rate is what should be used from now on.

And you're preaching to the choir. You guys have bullied anyone who leans right off this forum and created your own little bubble. That's why this took you by surprise.



Excellent idea, so the LPR is roughly 62.5% . So what you're saying is that Trump will get it down to.... what?

I just added this to the list.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Bach »

KG is sounding off just like he did post 2014 republican sweep after his months of predicting a liberal landslide back then. He has this impeccable track record of loud mouth before reason. Sounds a lot like Mike Tyson or John Daly explaining why they should still be respected!

Can we be assured you will be on live message board for the 2018 elections when Democrats will be exposed again??!!

Can't wait!!

You are a precious piece!!

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by MissTish »

Maxine Waters wrote: You guys have bullied anyone who leans right off this forum and created your own little bubble.


You're so full of ____. You were outed as a Stormfront posting white supremacist, which is more than just right leaning. You created a new name, put up a new avatar and are still here.

If your statement above were true you would have been run out of here on a rail.
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cinepro
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by cinepro »

It's a good idea. I'm not a Trump supporter, but it will be interesting to see how these metrics change over the next four (or eight?) years, with some caveats.

I don't think "cop killings" or the gasoline price are a reflection of a President's policies or actions, so I won't be paying much attention to those. Also, inflation is a function of the Fed's judgment, which the President isn't supposed to have much influence over. I can't really think of what a President would to to raise or lower inflation (and it's debatable about when that would be a good or bad thing, or what the ideal rate would be). Home ownership is also a double-edged sword, since we've seen what can happen if that number rises on a shaky foundation of bad loans and overstretched borrowers.

Also, do we want food-stamp recipients to go up or down?

And everything should have a source, so we can make sure the numbers four years from now are from similar sources.

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cinepro
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by cinepro »

For further consideration...

How Much Does the President Really Matter?

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Some Schmo
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Some Schmo »

cinepro wrote:How Much Does the President Really Matter?

He has veto power, and with a GOP controlled congress, that matters. My biggest fear is that the guys who write the legislation will never explain it accurately to orangutan, and you know damn well he won't read it himself. He'll be all, Just give me the broad strokes. Where's the executive summary?
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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Res Ipsa »

cinepro wrote:For further consideration...

How Much Does the President Really Matter?


According to the GOP, Obama has single handedly destroyed all our freedoms, so I'd say it matters quite a bit. :twisted:

More seriously, the regulatory apparatus that the president heads is, I think, pretty consequential. Also, Congress has all but ceded it's war making authority to the president, which is pretty significant.
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― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

Kevin Graham
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Kevin Graham »

cinepro wrote:It's a good idea. I'm not a Trump supporter, but it will be interesting to see how these metrics change over the next four (or eight?) years, with some caveats.

I don't think "cop killings" or the gasoline price are a reflection of a President's policies or actions, so I won't be paying much attention to those. Also, inflation is a function of the Fed's judgment, which the President isn't supposed to have much influence over. I can't really think of what a President would to to raise or lower inflation (and it's debatable about when that would be a good or bad thing, or what the ideal rate would be). Home ownership is also a double-edged sword, since we've seen what can happen if that number rises on a shaky foundation of bad loans and overstretched borrowers.

Also, do we want food-stamp recipients to go up or down?

And everything should have a source, so we can make sure the numbers four years from now are from similar sources.


I agree with all of this but I thought these would be interesting categories to use since they have been the subject of Right Wing criticism throughout eight years of the Obama administration.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

The main cause of the labor participation rate going down is Baby Boomers retiring. That trend isn't going to reverse by 2020.

The automation boom is on the cusp of happening. Lord knows what that'll do to unemployment in the short term. Driverless cars are just starting to hit the market. You know how many people have professional driving jobs? It's a lot.

The economy is actually doing really good at the moment. That probably will continue in the immediate future. Obama's approval ratings are as high as they've ever been in significant part because of this. Those numbers will elevate Trump's numbers in the short-term. He won despite Herbert Hoover-like popularity. Imagine what it is going to be like as his approval numbers climb. Remember, for incumbents those numbers are mostly tied to how people feel about things like the state of the economy.

It's anyone's guess where it goes from here starting in late 2017. That kind of thing is very hard to predict. Democrats need a recession timed to one of the two upcoming major elections to not be regulated to generational minority party status.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Res Ipsa »

EAllusion wrote:The main cause of the labor participation rate going down is Baby Boomers retiring. That trend isn't going to reverse by 2020.

The automation boom is on the cusp of happening. Lord knows what that'll do to unemployment in the short term. Driverless cars are just starting to hit the market. You know how many people have professional driving jobs? It's a lot.

The economy is actually doing really good at the moment. That probably will continue in the immediate future. Obama's approval ratings are as high as they've ever been in significant part because of this. Those numbers will elevate Trump's numbers in the short-term. He won despite Herbert Hoover-like popularity. Imagine what it is going to be like as his approval numbers climb. Remember, for incumbents those numbers are mostly tied to how people feel about things like the state of the economy.

It's anyone's guess where it goes from here starting in late 2017. That kind of thing is very hard to predict. Democrats need a recession timed to one of the two upcoming major elections to not be regulated to generational minority party status.


I agree about the labor participation rate. But Ajax seems to believe conservative government can make it go down, so why not conclude it.

You seemed to me to be pretty sure that a recession would hit before 2020 when it looked like Clinton would win the presidency. Are you less sure now? Or am I over interpreting?
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― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

So the president has very little influence on the economy in practice. However, there is a huge caveat to that. The federal government actually has a massive influence on the US economy and the president in turn has a very significant influence on the direction of the federal government. It's just that differences in policy between major parties is so minor that it doesn't make for all that big of a difference when it comes to the ups and downs of economic circumstance. This allows other factors to wash out most of presidential influence.

However, that doesn't mean a president can't take major actions to influence the economy. If the US embraces full-throated protectionism and starts cancelling trade deals, which is one of the very few policy areas Trump has remained consistent on in his life, that quite likely would cause major recession. It's unclear if that can actually make it through a Republican congress, but it'd be one of those rare circumstances where a president would be electorally punished for an actual bad consequence of their policies.

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Res Ipsa
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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by Res Ipsa »

EAllusion wrote:So the president has very little influence on the economy in practice. However, there is a huge caveat to that. The federal government actually has a massive influence on the US economy and the president in turn has a very significant influence on the direction of the federal government. It's just that differences in policy between major parties is so minor that it doesn't make for all that big of a difference when it comes to the ups and downs of economic circumstance. This allows other factors to wash out most of presidential influence.

However, that doesn't mean a president can't take major actions to influence the economy. If the US embraces full-throated protectionism and starts cancelling trade deals, which is one of the very few policy areas Trump has remained consistent on in his life, that quite likely would cause major recession. It's unclear if that can actually make it through a Republican congress, but it'd be one of those rare circumstances where a president would be electorally punished for an actual bad consequence of their policies.


Thanks. What do you see as the likely impact of passing the Ryan budget?
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

Post by EAllusion »

Res Ipsa wrote:
I agree about the labor participation rate. But Ajax seems to believe conservative government can make it go down, so why not conclude it.

You seemed to me to be pretty sure that a recession would hit before 2020 when it looked like Clinton would win the presidency. Are you less sure now? Or am I over interpreting?


It's more likely than not going to happen. I'm saying just saying it's hard to predict. To help the non-incumbent party, the recession also has to time correctly to happen so it's on-going in the quarter or so before the election happens. Reagan got a major recession during his first term, but America was in strong recovery by 1984 and the trend caused him to win a landslide.

The problem for Democrats here is much deeper than the problem for Republicans if they didn't win in 2016. First, and most importantly, Republicans have on the docket plans to absolutely smash Democratic avenues of support through legal and extra-legal means. It's gonna happen. Second, the fact that the Republican/Democrat split has become a rural/urban split significantly favors Republicans in a system like ours where proportional representation is balanced by local self-determination. Republican votes are significantly over represented and they own a very large natural edge in Senate elections the public hasn't seen yet because Democrats keep winning national elections. Finally, districts over the country are heavily gerrymandered in Repubicans' favor which gives them a natural edge both in Congress and in state legislatures. So the deck is already a stacked against Democrats.

Republicans could've afforded to do so-so in 2018 and 2020 and still come out either on top or with enough strength to keep on trucking. If Democrats don't get strong victories, up to and including landslide, in one or both of those, they are royally screwed in the next census realignment and probably the one after that too. In that case, many members of this board will be dead before they see a a robust Democrat party again barring some sort of absolutely catastrophic, world-altering event that no one wants to see.

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Re: Wager for Trump Supporters

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Kevin Graham wrote:OK my fellow Trump supporters. This is your glorious moment and you are in a unique position to prove to the world you were right all along. So in four years we'll know for certain if Trump has the faintest clue about how to run a country. All we have to do is take the numbers from today and compare them to those in 2020. Here are some that come to mind, though I'm sure we could add to the list:

Official unemployment rate: 4.9%
U6 unemployment rate: 9.5%
Labor Participation Rate: 62.5%
Federal debt: $19.8 trillion
Federal deficit: $500 billion
Federal Revenues: $3.34 Trillion
Trade deficit: $40 billion
Social Security Trust Fund: $27 trillion
Food Stamp recipients: 46 million
Manufacturing jobs: 12.33 million
Percentage of Americans without Insurance: 9%
Rate of Home Ownership: 63%
Inflation: < 2%
Cop killings: 46 in 2016
Avg gasoline price:$ 2.15

So unlike Obama, Trump enters office with a Republican Congress at his back willing to pass anything he proposes, so come 2020 there will be no excuse for any of those statistics heading in the wrong direction. I'll frame this post and we'll revisit it in 2020, and if Trump was able to improve on even half of those numbers then I will gladly eat crow. But if they're all worse in 2020 and you still support him, will you then admit that your support for him has nothing to do with a sincere belief that he is a better leader? Sounds like a fair wager to me, so what do you say?

You should use the numbers after first qtr of Trump presidency, most educated people recognize that there is a policy lag between administrations.
But hey, obviously you moved to where pot is legal now

And yes, we should certainly hold Trump accountable on all things that you gave Obama a pass on.


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