http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/0 ... 40975.html

I like this tweet comment
""Met Romney last week. Tough O Chicago pros will be hard to beat unless he drops old friends from team and hires some real pros. Doubtful,"
Romney "Seems to play everything safe, make no news except burn off Hispanics."

I don't agree that Romney 'cannot win'. I DO think it's interesting that Murdock sees the election as being decided by what advisers Romney chooses. Sizzle, not the steak. But I think there are a lot of issues and variables that still could swing this in Romney's favor:

1. The Economy. This has been a very sluggish recovery, that cannot be argued. The question is how the voters in the middle see the issue? Will they blame high taxes and too much regulation for stifling the economy? They'll vote for Romney. Will they see it as a long and painful slog out of a market that crashed due to inadequate regulation? They'll vote for Obama. Lurking in the background is the Euro crisis. If we see countries defaulting or opting out of the Euro, it will be a severe hit to not only our economy, but the world economy. The question in both Europe and the U.S. is similar: How do you grow your way out of a deficit when no one is spending? Are short term budget reductions worth the long -term social impact?

2. How energized is Obama's base? Obama's base turned out big in '08. He will need them this time. One of Romney's concerns was that the Republican conservative base would not rally around a non Tea-Party candidate. I don't think that's an issue. Romney may not be their first choice, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The Supreme Court decision on the Affordable Health Care Act should be enough to energize the conservative base. Obama will need to get people out on Women's Rights, immigration, spending cuts. Also negative advertising could dampen enthusiasm for Obama, which brings us to:

3. SuperPAC money. I pity the people who live in swing states and watch a lot of television. They are going to be bombarded by more propaganda than North Koreans watching Kim Il-Sung's 100th birthday celebration. The Lion's share of it will be on the Republican side. Whatever advisers Murdoch thinks Romney should be hiring are probably going to end up working for one of these SuperPACs. The economy may be in the tank, but these are the salad days if you're a TV ad buyer. How effective will it be? Will people get turned off by the sheer volume and repetition?

i think Obama has the lead at this time, but there is a lot of time left and a LOT of money to be spent. A lot could happen.

And don't forget, Romney also has the advantage of wearing magic underwear...

I have a question. Do all those negative ads work? I suppose Obama's team could just use some on the other GOP candidates material against Romney.

We have a populace well trained to respond to 15 second commercials. Romney will have more money available than any other political candidate in history. Romney's people will be able to flood all channels. They may even have a Buy Romney program on the Home Shopping Network.

One of the most discouraging things about American politics is how little money is spent on educating voters and how much money is spent on manipulating voters. In American elections, fear is the primary tool of motivation.

Fear appeals to the limbic, reptilian, lower brain functions. Reason appeals to the cerebral, mammalian, higher brain functions.

George Will recently pointed out that the 4.2 billion to be spent in this election cycle is half of what Proctor & Gamble spends on advertising in a year, which I feel misses the point. The point is not quantity, but quality. We are not trying to get people to buy Tide, we are trying to decide who should be a world leader, and I don't think the methodology employed should be the same.

In his Report to Greco Nikos Kazantzakis wrote: "The human being is a centaur...He has been fighting, again for thousands of eons, to draw himself, like a sword, out of his animalistic scabbard. He is also fighting-this is his new struggle-to draw himself out of his human scabbard."

I fear when we let unconscious motivations rule the political process we are retreating into our animalistic scabbard.

(The complete quote of 'As a Great Cry' can be found at http://www.ithaca.edu/dani/inspirations/ideas/greatcry.txt)