DoubtingThomas wrote:I do. I said, "everything is possible".
You said that while dismissing one possibility and taken the other as a basis for form judgement. That's not being agnostic on the matter.
Can you please think about what I am saying? Do you have any evidence that Warren is telling the truth?
You're calling her a liar. The burden is on you, buddy.
Wait, what? This is not a story that Warren made up. Your link doesn't even assert that. There are examples of her being sketchy for political purposes, but this ain't it.
If you trust politfact, just do a search on Sanders and instances in which he was marked as lying. There are lots.
Yes because there was no scientific polling at the time
Yes there was.
and Kamala Harris had no name recognition.
This statement is contradicted by the first one, and isn't really accurate in context.
You kept defending the CNN headline as a horse race coverage. It is not a conspiracy theory, it was just the bandwagon effect and free coverage.
What? I defended Harry Enten, formly of 538, now of CNN, for arguing that of the candidates, it was reasonable to assert Harris was a weak frontrunner. The case for this was reasonable. Again, it was the consensus view of political forecasters in general, and this was reflected in prediction markets. I was also careful to point out that because no candidate has the majority of probability of winning, they technically all are likely to lose.
Right now, Joe Biden is a the clear Democratic frontrunner. He, and he alone, is the most likely to win the nomination and no one else is all that close to him. It's also the case that Joe Biden is likely to lose the Democratic nomination. If you can't keep these thoughts in your head at the same time, you need to think about math a little harder.
EAllusion wrote: but the poll numbers never showed that she was the front runner.
You said there were no polls. That aside, there's more to forecasting that far out than looking at polls. If it were that simple, Donald Trump has already lost. But it's not that simple.