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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:04 am 
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Science Deniers (a la LDSFaqs): “Human activity cannot influence climate.”

Also Science Deniers (a la LDSFaqs): “Those temperature averages are skewed by measurements that were taken in urban areas where human activity influences climate.”

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Last edited by Doctor Steuss on Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:08 am 
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DarkHelmet wrote:
Ceeboo wrote:
More evidence that clearly supports climate change.

https://youtu.be/iXuc7SAyk2s


:lol: Global warming is hitting some cities much harder than others.


Indeed! :)


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:29 am 
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Doctor Steuss wrote:
Science Deniers (a la LDSFaqs): “Human activity cannot influence climate.”

Also Science Deniers (a la LDSFaqs): “Those temperature averages are skewed by measurements that were taken in urban areas where human activity influences climate.”


Apparently Tony Heller is not interested in defending the concrete industry. However, if he starts creating videos that show concrete has no effect on local temperature, ldsfaqs will immediately change his opinion. When the prophet speaks, the debate is over.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:40 pm 
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mikwut wrote:
Hi Themis and Res,

No Themis your wrong, I am sure Res took an inordinate amount of time on his research and posting, it indeed becomes as gish gallup.



I'm calling BS. RI did take the time YOU asked and you disrespect him and others by now trying to avoid discussing it. I suspect you never intended to. Like gunnar and others, I have noticed you like to silently slip away when people start to engage you with actual content. I noticed you doing this again after days of silence. I left it just in case you were busy with life, but I also knew you would come back if I posted about it. I suspected from your past behavior you would probably not engage and use some excuse, but gish gallup? That is one of the dumber claims I have read. RI posted about 4-5 paragraphs worth of text hitting on a few points. Not 40-50 paragraphs hitting on dozens of points. You don't even need to address all of them. How about one like the first point which discusses the paper objective and how one can easily answer it by just looking at satellite data on the sun.

You asked people if they would want to know the truth. The problem is everyone thinks they want to know the truth, but most don't when it comes to their religious or political beliefs. Almost all will say they do, but it is behavior that reveals their real intent on learning truth. Truth seekers don't try to leave a discussion when people start bringing up content. They continue to ask questions and research to see if they have the more accurate position or if the other person does. RI is one of the better posters at doing this and even admitting to being wrong from time to time. I would suggest following that example.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:13 pm 
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A Gish Gallop involves overwhelming someone with a large volume of bad arguments that strains their ability to respond to manipulate independent observers.

The paper Mikwut posted is more of a Gish Gallop than Res Ipsa's abbreviated response. If Mikwut feels Res Ipsa was gish galloping, he could highlight one or two points and respond accordingly. From here, it looks like a bad faith attempt to having to get out of accounting for why he acted like a fringe group's hackneyed work was promising for upending the field of climatology.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:57 am 
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“The general-circulation models of climate on which international policy is at present founded are unfit for their purpose,” the letter, sent to Secretary-General António Guterres, states. “Therefore, it is cruel as well as imprudent to advocate the squandering of trillions of dollars on the basis of results from such immature models.”

The letter is signed by a number of prominent scientists and professionals from related fields, including atmospheric physicist Richard Lindzen and applied geology professor Alberto Prestininzi. The effort is led by professor Guus Berkhout, a Dutch engineer who served as professor of acoustics, geophysics, and innovation management at Delft University of Technology.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:06 am 
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An interesting data point:

https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2019/09/a-climate-modeller-spills-the-beans/

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:56 am 
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Potholer-Heller debate -- rebuttal #4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tq2Wv2KHGBc


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:59 pm 
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Black Moclips wrote:


Sure, it’s a data point. But it leaves out a ton of context. The IPCC reports list all the models used in the report. They also disclose which models use the type of adjustments discussed in the article. The reports also explain how the models work. So there’s no deep, dark secret that is being covered up about the models.

Second, some of what he’s claiming is fallacious. The fact that we don’t have a model that predict the day to day changes in clouds doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything about the formation of clouds and there effects. For example, we have no reason to suspect that clouds will disappear completely as the the atmosphere forms and we have no reason to expect that a uniform mass of clouds will that will completely block the sun for the foreseeable future. Clouds are subject to the laws of physics and chemistry. We can observe cloud formation and behavior under lots of different temperature and humidity conditions and apply that knowledge to a hotter and wetter atmosphere. We also know that clouds have both warming and cooling effects, which we can observe. What the modelers do is use all of that information to determine the reasonable boundaries of cloud effects and other features that cannot be modeled (often because of insufficient or very expensive) computer resources. Then they run the model many times, allowing the results to vary over those ranges. That’s what creates those spaghetti graphs of model results. What the research shows is that the plausible range of cloud effects is small compared to the warming from greenhouse gases.

Finally, his criticisms of the temperature indices reflect a level of understanding that could only be obtained from denier statements. The GHCN is a collection of weather stations. When the stations were built and when the index was formed, nobody had the faintest idea whether any given station would warm or cool in the future. So, by some extraordinary bout of bad luck, they just happened to pick the locations that showed heating over 98% of the earth?

But he has to criticize the temperature index because it undercuts his criticisms about the models. The ensemble of models in the IPCC reports have done a good job of predicting the temperature increase over time. And we shouldn’t forget that the models have predicted a temperature increase over time, while the skeptical outliers have uniformly predicted cooling or, at best, no more warming.

The guy apparently has a paper coming out. I’ll look forward to what it says, as well as any responses to the paper.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:32 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:17 am 
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subgenius wrote:
:: cartoon ::

Oh, what was your solution? : )


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:53 am 
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canpakes wrote:
subgenius wrote:
:: cartoon ::

Oh, what was your solution? : )


I'm diggity down with nuclear. What's your solution?

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:55 am 
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Nuclear power generation is very likely to be part of any package of medium term measures to ensure that the world gets the energy it needs without having to pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere without burning fossil fuels.

But nuclear power plants are is by no means 'a solution' to global heating, as that silly cartoon suggests it is. Such plants are expensive to construct, can be very dangerous if anything goes wrong, require intense and costly security, and pose major problems ( and more expense) when they have to be decommissioned.

Plants based on renewable sources such as solar energy, wind, hydropower and tidal energy, are much cheaper in terms of construction and running costs, much safer, and are not costly to decommission. When (as will inevitably happen soon, giving the huge benefits to be gained and the intensity of the research effort) we manage to get large-scale energy storage that guarantees continuity of supply despite variable output from renewables, nuclear power will no longer be needed.

TL/DR: the cartoon is the usual ineffectual effort to laugh off the unanswerable case for taking global heating seriously and doing something about it. It has about the same value as the crude stuff about 'Hey, isn't that Swedish kid, you know, weird? I suppose she's that way because she can't get a boyfriend, hnnnh, hnnh!'.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:12 pm 
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Chap,

Anything we choose to do will have downsides. Hydro and tidal plants have an impact on their respective ecosystems. Solar requires massive mining and production operation (not to mention it isn't really that efficient right now). Nuclear has massive upside, but if something goes sideways, MAN, it goes hard.

Whatever the case may be I'm just interested in sustainable practices, particulate reduction, carbon reduction, and continued funding into potential energy yields that could be a game changer. I agree with your post, though. It'll have to be a multi-pronged approach to energy that hopefully shifts away from fossil fuels.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:46 pm 
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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
I'm diggity down with nuclear. What's your solution?

- Doc

Meh. Not enthusiastic about nuclear. Too much cost up front for many utility companies, extremely costly to insure, and still no solution for the spent material.

We’re still arguing over what’s going to end up with the radioactive crap left behind by the Three Mile Island incident, and that’s from 40 years ago.

Nothing is fit to replace fossil fuels wholesale anytime soon but solar has the best chance to start us down that road. Eventually a combination of alternatives will help us meet the goal. Whatever we do, it will take time, but many things worth the effort take time.

But to the point, subs acts as if folks worried about anthropogenic climate effects are rejecting some sort of solution presented by the other side. In reality, there is no solution being offered. Subs is just being willfully dishonest again. No surprise there.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:10 pm 
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To get US carbon emissions to where they need to be, I don’t think we can do it without nuclear. I’m not concerned about safety, with the exception of waste storage. The Republicans last term could have taken care of the waste problem by finally designating a permanent waste facility. But I guess stuffing themselves with tax cut money and taking away health insurance is pretty time consuming.

The main problem with nuclear is the up front cost, which the financial markets won’t touch. I don’t blame them, as the industry has been over promising and under delivering for decades. That means we the taxpayers will have to pay. Also, nukes need a large amount of water for cooling, which means they need to be located on coasts, with rising sea levels, or rivers, which will be under increasing stress.

This is the consequence of waiting until now to start changes that should have been started 30 years ago. We have to make harder choices.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:56 am 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
The main problem with nuclear is the up front cost, which the financial markets won’t touch. I don’t blame them, as the industry has been over promising and under delivering for decades. That means we the taxpayers will have to pay. Also, nukes need a large amount of water for cooling, which means they need to be located on coasts, with rising sea levels, or rivers, which will be under increasing stress.

These are limitations that are not easily addressed within areas hosting the majority of the world’s 7.7 billion folks.

It’s easy to claim that nuclear power is the ticket to a worry-free energy future in a place like the US (and even that’s not correct), but try managing that startup cost, the water needs, and the safety and security concerns of handling the required uranium in most other places, and suddenly the challenges becomes a bit clearer.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:05 am 
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Non-nuclear renewables are catching up so fast in the area of electricity generation, that I don't think it is correct any longer to argue that nuclear is a necessary cost of rapid transformation of the electric grid into carbon neutral options. I'm not opposed to nuclear per se, but I come down on the side of those who argue it is not needed.

When it comes to decarbonization, the electricity aspect is increasingly looking like the most manageable part. If there was even a little bit of political will, it could be done in the US without too much of a shock. Decarbonizing agriculture to the level that needs to happen in the timeframe it needs to happen is more of a head-scratcher.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:05 pm 
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Highly distributed grids composed of renewable micro generation aggregated to meet the demands of the whole. Way more resilient to single points of failure than the current model. Look to the state of California's grid modernization efforts for an example of how this will work.

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Last edited by SteelHead on Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:10 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
Non-nuclear renewables are catching up so fast in the area of electricity generation, that I don't think it is correct any longer to argue that nuclear is a necessary cost of rapid transformation of the electric grid into carbon neutral options. I'm not opposed to nuclear per se, but I come down on the side of those who argue it is not needed.

When it comes to decarbonization, the electricity aspect is increasingly looking like the most manageable part. If there was even a little bit of political will, it could be done in the US without too much of a shock. Decarbonizing agriculture to the level that needs to happen in the timeframe it needs to happen is more of a head-scratcher.

The price of generating wind and solar is competitive with nuclear, but there is a huge amount of infrastructure to be needed before we can stop using oil, gas and coal to generate electricity. How are we going to provide the storage necessary to make interruptible sources meet demand? There are lots of proposals and ideas, but how will they be implemented and who will pay for them? The US power grid needs to be updated so that utilities can quickly and efficiently obtain power from a myriad of generating and storage locations across the country. But ownership of the grid is fragmented among thousands of different entities. Who’s going to decide how to modernize the grid so that it all works together? Who’s going to make sure that it gets done? And, given public ownership of many utilities, how does one compel ratepayers to pay for the upgrades. And, most importantly, how far along are we in the process.

At least there are designs and blueprints for a nuke plant. Do we have blueprints for the necessary grid upgrades? The storage facilities?

On top of all that, our solution to decarbonizing the transportation sector involves replacing internal combustion engines with electric motors, requiring even more generation of electricity?

As a practical matter, conservatives appear to have a hard-on for nukes. Including nukes in a program to decarbonize generation of electricity may help overcome the political obstacles.

And time is critical. We’re now starting to incur the cost of waiting. Funds that could be used for prevention are going to increasingly be needed for repair and adaptation. It’s a multi-front war, and I don’t think we can afford to leave out any means of attack.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2019 3:03 pm 
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I have the impression from the preceding post that the infrastructure problems of the US are likely to add to the difficulty of making the best use of renewable resources.

Res Ipsa wrote:
The US power grid needs to be updated so that utilities can quickly and efficiently obtain power from a myriad of generating and storage locations across the country. But ownership of the grid is fragmented among thousands of different entities.


I am not trying to sound superior here, but I quite honestly did not realise that this was the situation Americans face. Elsewhere in the world, the flexibility given by a functioning national (and international) distribution grid has led to situations where for several days in a row it has been possible to burn no coal at all, as in this example from last year:

Quote:
That milestone in turn was smashed on Monday afternoon and the UK passed the 72-hour mark at 10am on Tuesday. The coal-free run came to an end after 76 hours.

Without the fossil fuel, nearly a third of Britain’s electricity was supplied by gas, followed by windfarms and nuclear on around a quarter each.

The rest came from biomass burned at Drax power station in North Yorkshire, imports from France and the Netherlands, and solar power. Drax said it expected to go without coal on Tuesday.


As per my post above, nuclear power will be an essential ingredient in the low-carbon mix for some time to come. But as storage technology advances (and if state subsidies for fossil fuels are not allowed to distort pricing), the falling price of renewables will eventually win the game.

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