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The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
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Author:  Res Ipsa [ Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Raw Data didn't convince you.. So maybe data compari

When I see FAQs claim that we can trust the dishonest cherry picker THIS time, I think of Lucy and the football.

Author:  DarkHelmet [ Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 1970s Global Cooling Consensus was not a Myth... Stu

These global warming threads have been very informative. Thanks, Res Ipsa. As I skimmed through some of the papers on cooling vs warming predictions back in the 70s, it appears climate scientists built their predictions based on their existing knowledge, of course, and they have gained more knowledge since then. While greenhouse gases were well understood, there were also cooling forces to take into account. Ultimately, those who predicted warming were proven right. However, those who predicted cooling had their reasons (and it wasn't because they watched a Tony Heller video). They believed the cooling forces, such as aerosol pollution, would more than offset the warming effect of increased CO2 production. The past 50 years have shown that the warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have outpaced the cooling forces. The scientific community added this information to their existing knowledgebase. As a result, there is a much larger consensus on global warming today than there was in the 70s. I'm not sure what the skeptics are trying to prove by showing that some climate scientists predicted cooling in the 70s.

And why do they call themselves skeptics when they believe anything people like Tony Heller say without question?

Author:  Res Ipsa [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 1:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The 1970s Global Cooling Consensus was not a Myth... Stu

DarkHelmet wrote:
These global warming threads have been very informative. Thanks, Res Ipsa. As I skimmed through some of the papers on cooling vs warming predictions back in the 70s, it appears climate scientists built their predictions based on their existing knowledge, of course, and they have gained more knowledge since then. While greenhouse gases were well understood, there were also cooling forces to take into account. Ultimately, those who predicted warming were proven right. However, those who predicted cooling had their reasons (and it wasn't because they watched a Tony Heller video). They believed the cooling forces, such as aerosol pollution, would more than offset the warming effect of increased CO2 production. The past 50 years have shown that the warming effect of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have outpaced the cooling forces. The scientific community added this information to their existing knowledgebase. As a result, there is a much larger consensus on global warming today than there was in the 70s. I'm not sure what the skeptics are trying to prove by showing that some climate scientists predicted cooling in the 70s.

And why do they call themselves skeptics when they believe anything people like Tony Heller say without question?

You’re welcome. I enjoyed reading them as well. I loved the one about the effects of changing climate on birds in England.

Author:  Doctor CamNC4Me [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

There's a Trump deregulation list that includes:

-Methane Emissions
-Clean Power Plan
-Endangered Species Act
-Waters of the U.S. Rule
-Emissions for Coal Power Plants
-Waste Prevention Rule
-Coal Ash Rule
-Chemical Release Prevention
-Scientific Transparency Rule
-Pesticide regulations
-Livestock regulations
-Oil gas and Fracking
-Power Plant Water Pollution
-Clean Air Act

among many, many others..

This is terrifying when the Fourth National Climate Assessment states:

Quote:
Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities. The impacts of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future..

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities will continue to affect Earth’s climate for decades and even centuries. To RI's point, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states:

Quote:
1,000,000 species are at risk of extinction (making this time period the 2nd-fastest extinction event on the planet by some metrics)

Holocene extinction event, indeed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

- Doc

Author:  subgenius [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
There's a Trump deregulation list that includes:
...
- Doc

got any info on how the deregulation directly influences the environment/climate? as opposed to just eliminating redundancies, inefficiencies, paperwork, or financial waste?

or is just "having a titled list" enough tinder for a hair fire.

Author:  Doctor CamNC4Me [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

I dunno. I guess when you emplace people like:

- Rick Perry as the Secretary of Energy who once said he wanted to abolish the Department of Energy. In a CNBC interview on June 19, 2017, he downplayed the role of human activity in the recent rise of the Earth's temperature, saying natural causes are likely the main driver of climate change.

- Scott Pruitt, an oil lobbyist who had personally sued and fought the EPA for years in the interest of fossil fuel entities.

- Ryan Zinke who opened more federal lands for oil, gas and mineral exploration and extraction than any previous secretary.

- David Bernhardt who's Zinke's successor at the Interior and an oil industry lobbyist who was asked about climate change and said, "It doesn't keep me up at night."

All of these guys are big on deregulation and half of them resigned in disgrace while under investigation for being ____. But, then again, these are the people you apparently trust because they're not in it for the money unlike those millionaire scientists, no?

- Doc

Author:  Brackite [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Arctic sea ice coverage drops below 1.5M square miles for second time since 1979

Sept. 13 (UPI) — For just the second time since scientists started tracking Arctic sea ice coverage in 1979, the sea ice extent has dropped below 1.5 million square miles, or 4 million square kilometers.

Every autumn, the Arctic sea ice coverage reaches its minimum extent, before expanding as temperatures rise. Though the sea ice is still shrinking, the minimum extent still days away, coverage is already approaching record lows.

“Our satellite data show that between March and April 2019, there was an unusually large decrease in the ice extent, from which the Arctic sea ice was unable to recover,” Christian Haas, a geophysicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute, said in a news release.

The Arctic’s rapid springtime melting suggested sea ice coverage was destined for an all-time low, but fluctuating temperatures during the summer helped slow the retreat. Still, melting continued through the end of the summer.

Though temperatures have now dipped below freezing, heat retained by Arctic waters continues to melt sea ice. Though ice could continue to melt into late September, it’s unlikely this year’s minimum will surpass 2012’s record low of 1.3 million square miles.

“Record or not, this year confirms the continued long-term reduction of Arctic sea ice as a result of climate change, making it ever more likely that in a few decades the Arctic will be ice free in summer,” Haas said. “This will mean drastic changes in the Arctic, with consequences for the climate and ecosystems, as well as for people, including us in Europe.”

Scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Bremen’s Institute for Environmental Physics use satellite data to calculate the Arctic’s sea ice coverage, as well as the thickness of the region’s ice. Scientists also track atmospheric conditions, as well as air and sea surface temperatures, in order to better understand the factors that influence ice loss in the region.

Researchers are also preparing for a more intimate study of climate-ice dynamics in the Arctic. Later this month, the research icebreaker Polarstern will set sail in the Laptev Sea for the MOSAiC expedition. After locating a large pack of flowing ice to anchor to, the ship and its team of researchers will drift through the Central Arctic for 12 months.


https://www.breitbart.com/news/arctic-s ... ince-1979/

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charc ... ice-graph/

Author:  Res Ipsa [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
There's a Trump deregulation list that includes:

-Methane Emissions
-Clean Power Plan
-Endangered Species Act
-Waters of the U.S. Rule
-Emissions for Coal Power Plants
-Waste Prevention Rule
-Coal Ash Rule
-Chemical Release Prevention
-Scientific Transparency Rule
-Pesticide regulations
-Livestock regulations
-Oil gas and Fracking
-Power Plant Water Pollution
-Clean Air Act

among many, many others..

This is terrifying when the Fourth National Climate Assessment states:

Quote:
Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities. The impacts of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future..

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities will continue to affect Earth’s climate for decades and even centuries. To RI's point, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states:

Quote:
1,000,000 species are at risk of extinction (making this time period the 2nd-fastest extinction event on the planet by some metrics)

Holocene extinction event, indeed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

- Doc


I agree, terrifying.

I grew up mostly in a small city called Bellingham, about 60 miles south of the Canadian border on Puget Sound. There's a state park a few miles south of town called Larrabee State Park. It's on one of the most gorgeous drives in Washington -- Chuckanut Drive.

I spent lots of time in Larrabee Park a kid. in Washington, the land between mean high tide and mean low tide is public, so access to Puget Sound is pretty easy. Larrabee has a couple of beaches and a boat ramp. But the best part is the rocks. Most of the shore is really, really rocky -- easy stuff to climb and scramble around. And that's what I loved to do.

My favorite part, though, was the sea life. Especially the starfish. (Yeah, I know. Sea stars. But when I was a kid, we called them star fish.) When the tide was low at Larrabee, the rocks would be covered with these beautiful purple starfish. They were gorgeous, and it would look like there were thousands of them. If I close my eyes, I can transport myself back there and see those rocks and all those purple starfish.

I've lived about 75 miles south of Larrabee for going on 40 years now. Every time I drive north, I try to make time for a detour off the freeway to Chuckanut Drive. And if I'm not in a hurry, I'll swing into the park to climb around on the rocky shore. Good memories.

A few years ago, I stopped by the park for a little rock scrambling. And there were no starfish. Not. One. And I haven't seen one since.

You see, there's this thing called Starfish Wasting Disease. The starfish just kind of dissolve. Pieces of the arms break off and crawl around at random for a while, and then just melt. And it's killed off those starfish. Not just in Larrabee. Along the whole west coast from Mexico to Alaska, ochre starfish have been decimated by the wasting disease. And something like 20 other species of sea stars, including one in Washington that isn't a just a pretty thing to look at. Sunflower stars are the primary predators of sea urchins. And where the sunflower stars die off, the urchins take over. The urchins feed on kelp, and kelp forests are where the sea live thrives in these parts. Without any check on the urchins, it's the equivalent of burning down the Amazon rainforest under water here.

Already, the kelp forests in California from Monterey to the Oregon border have been replaced by "urchin barrens." The abalone in that region are dying off. The threatened Southern Sea Otters, which live in that region, live in the kelp forests.

Now, I'm not going to tell you that global warming killed the sea stars, because scientists are still trying to figure out why it happened. But the death of the kelp forests was helped along by unusual changes in ocean currents that kept the cold, nutrient filled water from welling up along the coast and left a layer of warm water along the top. But that's not really the point.

We've known for decades that life on earth exists in a very complex web and that disrupting part of an ecosystem can crash the whole thing. Evolution drives life to fill specialized niches. And a species that has lived in a narrow range of temperatures for thousands or millions of years has no reason to adapt to temperatures or pH levels outside of that range.

Every generation for hundreds of years has left its children with a more impoverished planet than it inherited. We don't see it because of a phenomena that's been labeled "shifting baselines." Each generation labels the world it grows into as normal. And so the long-term deterioration of life on earth goes largely ignored because we can't see enough in one lifetime to understand what's happening. And we have pushed the web so hard that its resiliency is strained. And we're determined to keep pushing until it falls to pieces.

If it does, I hope it takes us with it. Give some new species a crack at things in 100 million years or so. Maybe one that is smart enough to learn not to ____ in its own nest.

Author:  Res Ipsa [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Sea ice extent doesn't quite capture what is happening in the arctic. Measuring volume is tricky, because we don't have any way direct way to measure volume. At the University of Washington, they've been estimating volume based on different observations. Some of the extreme forecasts of an ice free arctic that you've seen are based on accelerated trends from that data. But if you want just a plain old vanilla prediction based on the 35-year linear trend, I'll make one: 2035 for the first day of a virtually ice-free arctic, plus or minus 7 years. There will continue to be ice during the winter through the end of the century.

You can handicap it yourself here: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects ... e-anomaly/

I'd be delighted to be wrong.

Author:  canpakes [ Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
All of these guys are big on deregulation and half of them resigned in disgrace while under investigation for being ____. But, then again, these are the people you apparently trust because they're not in it for the money unlike those millionaire scientists, no?

This is exactly what makes the typical arguments from folks like faqs or subs so painfully, hypocritically bad. They'll tell you to ignore scientific conclusions based on their claim that scientists are in this solely "for the money", but then they'll tell you that we need this sort of deregulation so that random businesses can make more money.

Author:  Res Ipsa [ Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

The most recent temperature reconstruction for the last 2000 years from the Pages2k database, which is kind of a clearinghouse for climate proxy data. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02179-2

TL/DR No evidence in the last 2000 years of any event comparable to the warming over the last 40 years. Warming during the MWP didn’t affect more than about 40% of the earth at the same time. Our current warming affects about 98%.

Author:  Chap [ Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Res Ipsa wrote:
No evidence in the last 2000 years of any event comparable to the warming over the last 40 years. Warming during the MWP didn’t affect more than about 40% of the earth at the same time. Our current warming affects about 98%.
(My emphasis)

I've seen that bolded point restated so many times in discussions of this topic. But that won't stop the climate change deniers citing the Medieval Warming as a 'See? It's happened before, no problem' example over and over and over again.

No wave of heating so generalised and well-nigh universal has hit our planet for millennia. And it's our fault, and it's getting worse.

Author:  Gunnar [ Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

And they still have no answer to the question of why the vast majority of climate scientists should be regarded as more untrustworthy than those who have literally trillions of dollars of vested interest in denying the evidence that our heavy reliance on fossil fuels is or can be a problem.

Author:  Maksutov [ Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Gunnar wrote:
And they still have no answer to the question of why the vast majority of climate scientists should be regarded as more untrustworthy than those who have literally trillions of dollars of vested interest in denying the evidence that our heavy reliance on fossil fuels is or can be a problem.


Because they're LYING LEFTISTS who tell LEFTIST LIES and HATE AMERICA and GOD and are part of a VAST LEFTIST CONSPIRACY. :razz:

Author:  Themis [ Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Climate REALITY... The Simple Truth... Raw U.S. Data!

mikwut wrote:
Hi Res,

Man, this issue seems like a gish gallup real quick. I can't keep up when every issue requires lengthy response and Gunnar makes quippy comments that I must be chicken or something.


That impression can happen if one leaves a discussion when it appears they are not doing well.

Quote:
I wonder if catastrophic global warming was in fact not accurate would you be open minded? Kind of like asking us when we were Mormon if we wanted to know if it was false?


Would you want to know if it is true? I would add that catastrophic is a bit vague, but I like one of RI's post in which he describes how the earth's environment has been a little worse with each generation such that we tend to think what we knew as a child was normal and may miss just how much damage we have done. The thing I worry about is that many catastrophes hit fast after longer periods of slow degradation. Ecosystems to some may look like they are only experiencing some stress not realizing they can survive ok until hitting a certain point and then they can quickly crash with no way to stop it.

Quote:
The following paper by the the Connolly's seems promising. So what do you do with something like it, just say they are paid shills and move on? Or do you look at the data they provide and make a judgment consistent with that data?


RI gave some detailed answers. Do you agree with him, and if not, why?

Author:  mikwut [ Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Hi Themis and Res,

No Themis your wrong, I am sure Res took an inordinate amount of time on his research and posting, it indeed becomes as gish gallup.

The point of my paper I cited is that it is peer reviewed and raises serious questions of whether CO2 could be in Thermodynmic Equilibrium. I added the question of how do you sift through differing conluding peer reviewed papers?

I can switch gears though, probably really piss off the Res and Gunnars of the board. My position is in fact more nuanced but my moral position has been made clear. If you add a philosophical position to the question which has been made by Dr. Paul Viminitz the problem is such an intractable collective action problem, no one is going to do anything about it. This problem is simpy put as most people are not going to put any action into the problem unless others similar to them will, which they won't, and circle ends nothing happens.

Therefore, utilizing fossil fuels to lift third world countries and moving as the market and technology allows is the most thoughtful and critical position to take.

ETA: There are other problems that are not so intractable like malaria nets, and other research the money could to.

mikwut

Author:  Res Ipsa [ Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

I’m not pissed off, mikwut. I’m just deeply disappointed. I took your invitation to tell you what I thought about the paper as a serious invitation to discus it. I spent a fair amount of time going through the paper step by step and found a number of glaring problems, which I wrote about at length. Instead of responding to anything I wrote, you dismissed it as a gish gallop. I know you’re a smart guy, which means you know that what I wrote about the paper was not a Gish gallop. It was a response completely focused on the paper you invited me to comment on. The fact that the paper is very long and contains a significant number of flaws is not my problem.

I find your moral position to be morally bankrupt. You simply hand waive away the harm to be caused to people who are the least able to defend it, and promote doing more of the thing will cause the harm. It’s easy to be defeatist when the defeat will cause the greatest harm to somebody else.

Please don’t bother extending me similar invitations in the future. Fool me once...

Author:  canpakes [ Tue Sep 24, 2019 5:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

mikwut wrote:
.
Therefore, utilizing fossil fuels to lift third world countries and moving as the market and technology allows is the most thoughtful and critical position to take.

Again, your ‘moral position’ is ignored by the measured effects of fossil fuel combustion byproducts on the environment.

Regarding the “lift third world countries” argument: this might work if only fossil fuel reserves were much more equitably distributed amongst them. As it stands, that is hardly the case, and imposing the fossil-fuel ‘solution’ as the answer to their status ignores much of their economic, political and social realities while locking them into a financial dependency on and forced fealty to first-world political and corporate desires simultaneous with having to deal with the economic fallout of climate issues caused primarily by players outside of their own borders.

I’m not seeing that such a position is necessarily more moral than if third world nations were guided instead into concurrent or greater use of certain alternative energy options that allowed them better control of their own economies and resources.

Maybe the strategy of having to burn the village in order to save it isn't always the most effective or moral route after all.

Author:  Ceeboo [ Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

More evidence that clearly supports climate change.

https://youtu.be/iXuc7SAyk2s

Author:  EAllusion [ Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

If you believe that capitalism, broadly construed, is mankind's best economic option to maximize happiness through encouraging peace and prosperity, I think you should be worried about a future in which the ravages of global warming are widely believed to discredit it. If global warming is what capitalism produces, then it is irredeemably flawed.

I happen to think that global warming isn't the inevitable result of the consumerist societies capitalism encourages, but rather is a function of more narrow societal flaws, especially in the United States, that developed in the late 20th century. But what I think isn't going to matter in 50 years.

Author:  DarkHelmet [ Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD

Ceeboo wrote:
More evidence that clearly supports climate change.

https://youtu.be/iXuc7SAyk2s


:lol: Global warming is hitting some cities much harder than others.

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