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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:08 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
I agree, that under pretty restrictive conditions, one could arrange a scenario under which biofuels could be carbon neutral. But that requires all kinds of things to work exactly right — the kinds of things that generally don’t work exactly right in the real word. I’ve got no quarrel with a farmer making and using biodiesel to run his tractor (although, we should ask where the energy came from that he used to turn his corn into fuel). But that’s not an accurate picture of biofuel use in the US.

The US subsidizes biofuel production. As a direct result, 40% of the US corn crop is used to produce ethanol for use in Internal Combustion Engines. When we look at the total effects on CO2 emissions, we are worse off than if we’d never subsidized biofuels at all. From the standpoint of CO2 emissions, the best thing we could do is eliminate all subsidies for corn based ethanol and plant trees in the additional land that was put under agricultural production because of the subsidies.

One of the best paths we have to decarbonization is to convert our electricity generation from fossil fuels to renewable resources, while phasing out ICEs in favor of electric motors. In that context, I don’t think it makes much sense to spend time, effort, and dollars trying to create cleaner ICE fuels that would have the effect of slowing that transition down. In other words, why expend anything to support the the technology we need to phase out?


Yup! All your points make perfect sense. As for the energy needed to convert the farmer's corn into oil, that could come from solar panels or wind turbines, but, I realize, that immediately raises the question of why not just use the electricity produced to run his farm equipment directly. The intermediate step of first using that energy to produce biofuels makes sense only as long as the farmer does not immediately have the both the means and the opportunity to replace his ICE powered equipment with electrically powered equipment. Ideally it would be better to skip the intermediate step of converting the corn into biofuels, if possible and feasible.

Quote:
May[be] there are uses for ICEs that will need to be around a long time. If that’s the case, and if we can produce fuel for those uses that results in lower CO2 emissions than petro gas or diesel, then I think we should pursue those. Proposed use of algae may avoid the CO2 emissions resulting from land use change may be viable, depending on the presence of other adverse effects. And it may make sense to work on developing and using biofuels as an intermediate step in decarbonizing transportation. But I don’t see biofuels as being part of a long-range, permanent solution to global warming.


Yes, I agree that this is the area where it makes the most sense to develop and use biofuels, especially in commercial aviation.

Quote:
As to the cows, yes. A life cycle analysis looks at all direct and indirect emissions. So, not just cow flatulence. About 35% of our corn production is for cattle feed. So, the CO2 produced in growing the feed corn also counts.

As far as carbon neutral agriculture, it requires a bunch of stuff to be done exactly right. And that is going to take making sure it is profitable to decarbonize food production and to recarbonize soil. Creating those kinds of incentives while avoiding incentives to counterproductive behavior is difficult.


I concede these points also. Thanks for commenting on what I have said and further stimulating my own thoughts on these issues. These are the kinds of issues on which the whole world needs further thought and clarification. :smile:

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:01 am 
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Actually, thanks for your end of the conversation. I hadn’t looked at the carbon neutral farming stuff in a while, and it was good to see the progress that has been made. The technological moves so fast, itsm’s hard to keep up.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:36 am 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
Taking the position that we shouldn’t do anything until climate change manifests itself in disastrous impacts completely ignores the nature and magnitude of the threat. We don’t have a climate control knob that will let us easily change the CO2 level. There is a tremendous inertia in our present economic system toward continuing and burning fossil fuels. We can’t just stop burning fossil fuels on a dime and then quickly suck the CO2 out again. When we get to the point of human civilization becoming carbon neutral, we’re stuck with that climate for something like a thousand years. It’s only been about 150 since the industrial revolution.


Yup.

Res Ipsa wrote:
To have faith that science and technology will somehow save us in the future, while science is telling us the magnitude of the problem and solutions we can implement starting today, is naïve in the extreme.


Yup. It's about risk and precaution. Imagine this dialog on the Titanic:

Radio officer to Captain:
Sir, I am getting warnings that there is a sizeable risk of major icebergs in the part of the ocean through which our present course will take us. I suggest that you change course or at least drastically reduce speed to avoid a collision in the current poor visibility.

Captain to radio officer:
But if I reduce speed we shall fall behind schedule, thereby inconveniencing our many important passengers and damaging the reputation of our shipping company and reducing its profits. If I change course it will cost the company a lot more in fuel expended, because we shall not be taking the shortest route. Those are big costs. Can you be sure there are icebergs along our route? Have you seen them?

Radio officer to Captain:
No sir. But the indications are that there may well be icebergs there, and if you think of the damage to the ship if we hit one, even if we are supposed to be unsinkable ...

Captain to radio officer:
(Patting the radio officer on the shoulder). OK, thanks for the information. But I'm not going to lose the company money based on a mere possibility. We shall maintain course and speed.

That seems to be just about where we are today. We are told that measures to keep global heating within less damaging limits cannot be taken because they will 'reduce living standards', 'cost jobs', 'damage the economy'. But if the science is, on the whole, right (and only a tiny minority of climate scientists think it is not right), then a few decades down the line there will be large reductions in living standards, mass unemployment and huge damage to the economy, all in a context where the anti global heating measures that will then be demanded by a shocked population will cost a lot more than they do now, and will be considerably less cost-effective as well.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:48 pm 
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mikwut wrote:
Yet we keep hearing every storm or drought is directly caused by global warming. This fear especially to our youth is irrational. It is speculative not empirical. Through policy and technology we will arrange our energy solutions accordingly. The end of the world is not nigh, we are actually better off than in any time in history.

mikwut

No honest, scientifically literate and competent people, especially climate scientists, claim that every storm or drought is directly caused by global warming. Nevertheless, there seems to be pretty wide scientific agreement that the frequency and severity of droughts and flooding events can be and will be adversely influenced by global warming, and there is no reasonable doubt about the ongoing, multi-billion dollar disinformation campaigns sponsored by fossil fuel companies to obfuscate and cast doubt about the realities of climate change, and their role in causing and aggravating it.

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Last edited by Gunnar on Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:15 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
There’s an old story about a guy who was trapped at home by rising floodwaters. He prayed, asking God to save him from drowning. A friend called on his cellphone, asking if he needed help. He said “no, I have faith that God will save me..” The
Cajun Navy came by in a flatboat and asked him if he needed to be rescued. He replied, “no, I have faith that God will save me. After he had to get on to the roof of his house, a guy came down on a rope from a helicopter and offered rescue. The man waved him away. “I have faith that God will save me.”

The man drowned. When he met God in heaven, he asked God why he hadn’t saved him. God sighed: “I sent a friend, a boat, and a helicopter. What were you waiting for?”

To have faith that science and technology will somehow save us in the future, while science is telling us the magnitude of the problem and solutions we can implement starting today, is naïve in the extreme.

I love that analogy! And I don't think that we can overemphasize the point that even if AGW were a complete hoax, transitioning to green, renewable energy has tremendous potential benefits, both economic and environmental.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:24 pm 
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Hi Gunnar,

Quote:
No honest, scientifically literate and competent people, especially climate scientists, claim that every storm or drought is directly caused by global warming.


Then show some science that they are increasing due to climate change, actual empirical data not just speculation.

Quote:
Nevertheless, there seems to be pretty wide scientific agreement that the frequency and severity of droughts and flooding events can be and will be adversely influenced by global warming,


That is possible but you don't know that. And NASA not fossil fuel companies has concluded that “the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.” https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/ Prosperity is likely to continue to rise dramatically over the coming decades just as it has done in the past decades, this makes our ability to recover and deal with the events even greater than today. Once that is taken into account, the overall impact of hurricanes by 2100 will actually be lower than it is today. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1357

Quote:
and there is no reasonable doubt about the ongoing, multi-billion disinformation campaigns sponsored by fossil fuel companies to obfuscate and cast doubt about the realities of climate change, and their role in causing and aggravating it.


Well I'll go with the UN rather than your hyperdramatic hysteria. The UN studies five different global futures and in scenarios of high fossil fuel use humanity is better off than even in a world where a low co2 output exists. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 8016300681

Is the UN a part of your fossil fuel conspiracy?

mikwut

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:04 pm 
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mikwut wrote:
Quote:
Nevertheless, there seems to be pretty wide scientific agreement that the frequency and severity of droughts and flooding events can be and will be adversely influenced by global warming,


That is possible but you don't know that. And NASA not fossil fuel companies has concluded that “the historical Atlantic hurricane frequency record does not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced long-term increase.” https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/


Couple o’ things:

1. Gunnar is specifically referring to “frequency and severity of droughts and flooding”, whereas you jump over to hurricanes in your response. But let’s look at that anyway. Turns out that while NASA is not seeing an increase in hurricane frequency in the horizon, it is calling for likely increased intensity and rainfall rates from cyclones, due to anthropogenic climate effects. (From same linked source)

2. Your linked page also states that there does appear to be some anthropogenic effect on the phenomenon that Gunnar is referring to - droughts and flooding events.

Also, you never explained how ‘prosperity’ isn’t possible with substitution of alternate energy sources in place of fossil fuels over time.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 9:19 pm 
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mikwut wrote:
Well I'll go with the UN rather than your hyperdramatic hysteria. The UN studies five different global futures and in scenarios of high fossil fuel use humanity is better off than even in a world where a low co2 output exists. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 8016300681

Is the UN a part of your fossil fuel conspiracy?

mikwut

Forgot to mention that this is a somewhat nonsensical statement that misreads the paper’s intent. It’s a given that a society choosing to use cheaply-available fossil fuels will ‘advance’ faster than one eschewing such, but that doesn’t necessarily imply that the same society is better off doing so than choosing to also incorporate or replace FF with alternatives.

The article does address how differing SSP’s are capable of meeting adaptation and mitigation goals, which is not the same as the claim you are making:

Quote:
... the SSPs differ greatly with respect to the challenges to adaptation as well as the associated effectiveness of possible adaptation policies (O’Neill et al., 2014). For example in SSP1, the capacity to adapt to climate change is high given the well-educated, rich population, the high degree of good governance and the high development of technologies. In addition, also the intact ecosystem services contribute to the adaptive capacity. In SSP3, on the other hand the capacity to adapt to climate change is relative low, given the large, poor population, the lack of cooperation and slow technology development. In SSP4, the capacity to adapt to climate change is relatively low for most of the population due the unequal distribution of resources. And finally in SSP5, the capacity to adapt to climate change is high given a well-educated and rich population as well as the high level of technology development.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:37 pm 
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I believe Mikwut is engaging in some wishful reading. Neither of the two papers he cited say what he said they say.

What is perhaps more interesting is that he finds a brand new model that he thinks (incorrectly) supports his position authoritative, yet dismisses climate models out of hand. In other words, predictions of a model he agree with are completely trustworthy, while those that he disagrees with are mere speculation.

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:26 pm 
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canpakes wrote:
Forgot to mention that this is a somewhat nonsensical statement that misreads the paper’s intent. It’s a given that a society choosing to use cheaply-available fossil fuels will ‘advance’ faster than one eschewing such, but that doesn’t necessarily imply that the same society is better off doing so than choosing to also incorporate or replace FF with alternatives.


"Cheaply-available fossil fuels?" Does anyone really imagine that the world will continue to have cheaply-available fossil fuels for very much longer, even with continuing massive government subsidies to fossil fuel companies, let alone without such subsidies? Renewable energy is already cost competitive with fossil fuels despite current government subsidization of fossil fuel companies. And this is as of 4 years ago, according to the link provided!

Fossil fuels are being or have been extracted at an exponentially increasing rate for a long time. The supply is not infinite, and is rapidly being used up. Does anyone imagine that their cost can fail to increase dramatically, even in the near future?

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 7:00 am 
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Actually, Gunnar, I mangled that, as it should have read, “cheaper, readily-available fossil fuels”. “Cheaply available” was a mash-up. : )

I think that both you and I have the same opinion on how “cheap” fossil fuels really are (not) once their full cost of production, protection and mitigation are considered.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:17 am 
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canpakes wrote:
I think that both you and I have the same opinion on how “cheap” fossil fuels really are (not) once their full cost of production, protection and mitigation are considered.

I know. I had no doubt of that! :smile:

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:55 pm 
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Well, now.

Quote:
Following the hottest summer on record, 2019 continues to head for the history books. Last month was officially the hottest September on record, just slightly hotter (.04 degrees Fahrenheit) than the previous record-holder, September 2016.

Last month was 1.02 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average September from 1981-2010 and about 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit above the preindustrial level, according to data released Friday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, an organization that tracks global temperatures.


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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:50 am 
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The year 2019 was the 2nd hottest year on record globally.

SALT LAKE CITY — The Earth’s most recent rotation around the sun was the second warmest in 140 years of record keeping, with dire implications, according to a study by scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

“Rising temperatures in the atmosphere and ocean are contributing to the continued mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica and to increases in some extreme events, such as heat waves, wildfires, intense precipitation,” according to NASA’s report, released yesterday.

Scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) found that 2019 was 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the the global average established from 1951 and 1980.

Separately and with a similar result, NOAA found that the 2019 global average temperature was 1.71 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average from the 20th century, as determined by scientists from the agency’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

NOAA also reported that 2019 saw the second-smallest average covering of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans of any year from 1979 to 2019.

The hottest year on record was 2016, which was just 0.07 Fahrenheit warmer than last year, according to the study.

The NOAA calculation was different than NASA’s because NOAA “used much of the same raw temperature data, but with a different interpolation into the Earth’s polar and other data-poor regions,” according to NASA.

NASA estimated with 95% certainty that its findings are accurate to within 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit. The agency used more than 20,000 surface measurements from points on the land, sea and the Antarctic.

Nine of the 10 warmest years on record have come within the last 15 years, the study found. This correlates to the nearly century and a half long trend of steadily rising temperatures.

“Every decade since the 1960s clearly has been warmer than the one before” said Gavin Schmidt, the director of GISS.

The average temperatures of the last few decades have increased faster than earlier decades, according to a study of temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2019 — with a baseline from 1951 to 1980 — conducted by five different organizations.


https://www.deseret.com/platform/amp/in ... ate-change

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:04 am 
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According to Dr. Simon Southerton, our planet is the hottest now than it has been over the last 20,000 years.

"The earth has never been this hot in the last 20,000 years and that’s twice as long as the entire history of civilisation." - Link

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 Post subject: Re: The ldsfaqs / Climate Change MEGATHREAD
PostPosted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:27 pm 
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Brackite wrote:
According to Dr. Simon Southerton, our planet is the hottest now than it has been over the last 20,000 years.

"The earth has never been this hot in the last 20,000 years and that’s twice as long as the entire history of civilisation." - Link


Actually, more like the last 125,000 years.

And the CO2 Level is the highest it’s been for 800,000 years.

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