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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 4:24 am 
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The odds of of a man contracting HIV in a single act of vaginal sexual intercourse, even without a condom, is relatively low. I think it's something on the order of 1 in every 1000 times. (The odds are much higher if a person was infected just recently, but still something like 1 in a 100.) Condom use further suppresses that risk.

The odds that you will be with a partner who is HIV positive and is untreated with PrEP in a city where a few dozen people, across all ages, have it is extremely low. It's even lower if that person isn't an IV drug user and isn't promiscuous with populations that have higher HIV infection rates. That a person who is in their mid 20's is more likely to have HIV than a person who is 18 is true, but the difference between these two groups doesn't move the absolute numbers much. If it was 5 in 100k vs. 15 in 100k, that's an absolute difference of 10 in 100k for triple the risk. 10 more people in a population of thousands upon thousands. That's a tiny difference. And because sex one time with an HIV person itself is actually relatively low risk for transmission from exposure, the real increase in risk is imperceptible.

The idea that it's reasonable to focus on only having sex with young women to avoid a .0004% (or whathaveyou) greater % chance of getting HIV in absolute terms is flat out nutty.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:47 am 
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EAllusion wrote:
The odds of of a man contracting HIV in a single act of vaginal sexual intercourse, even without a condom, is relatively low. I think it's something on the order of 1 in every 1000 times. ....

I feel like you may not know how stats work. Literally takes only 1 time - every time. Diminishing the risk through a voodoo metric lens is an absurd tack on the topic.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:40 am 
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subgenius wrote:
Literally takes only 1 time - every time. Diminishing the risk through a voodoo metric lens is an absurd tack on the topic.

Do you tell this to yourself every time you buy your lottery ticket?

I should have been more clear how I worded the sentence you quoted though. Those are the approximate odds of a man contracting HIV when having vaginal sexual intercourse with an HIV positive person. HIV is fairly hard to transmit.

Yes, it only takes one time, every time. Just like every time you walk down the street in a city is the time you might be crushed by a falling piano. But if you want to understand risks, knowing the odds the negative event will happen help guide behavior.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:19 am 
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subgenius wrote:
I feel like you may not know how stats work.

I knew immediately this was going to be awesome.

subgenius wrote:
Literally takes only 1 time - every time. Diminishing the risk through a voodoo metric lens is an absurd tack on the topic.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:34 am 
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Missed an opportunity for "Contract HIV .1% of the time, every time."


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:09 am 
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EAllusion wrote:
subgenius wrote:
Literally takes only 1 time - every time. Diminishing the risk through a voodoo metric lens is an absurd tack on the topic.

Do you tell this to yourself every time you buy your lottery ticket?

I should have been more clear how I worded the sentence you quoted though. Those are the approximate odds of a man contracting HIV when having vaginal sexual intercourse with an HIV positive person. HIV is fairly hard to transmit.

Yes, it only takes one time, every time. Just like every time you walk down the street in a city is the time you might be crushed by a falling piano. But if you want to understand risks, knowing the odds the negative event will happen help guide behavior.

EAllusion, you triggered subs’s subconscious ‘gays are icky!!1!’ fears when you mentioned HIV. Now, any sort of ludicrous statement from him could appear.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:25 am 
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DoubtingThomas wrote:
In my city 300 per 100 thousand people are known to have HIV. If you take out seniors and children you get about 250 per 50 thousand. That is not small at all. 250 in 50 thousand is 50% of 1%.

Forget about the numbers. You said you can know a woman by hanging out with her, so how can you know the lifestyle that a 25 year old woman had 5 to 7 years ago?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVQkOc73uJA I like those odds.

Actually many seniors were young when the aids epidemic started, but lets go with 1 out of every 200. It's irrational to be worried about finding that one in 200 that has aids. Now add that most who have aids take anti viral drugs making the odds of getting aids from them with even unprotected sex practically zero.

The issues you bring up are not rational to be so worried about. It's obvious to everyone here you have other personal issues keeping you from finding a nice women to have a good relationship with. You would do well to get professional counseling to help you recognize and deal with some of these personal problems.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:52 pm 
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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
subgenius wrote:
I feel like you may not know how stats work.

I knew immediately this was going to be awesome.

subgenius wrote:
Literally takes only 1 time - every time. Diminishing the risk through a voodoo metric lens is an absurd tack on the topic.

Image

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your post reminds of that person who when something "peculiar" happens they always exclaim - "what are the chances of that?" to which the real answer is "100 percent chance" because it just happened.
...
Too much?
...
ok, think Vegas.

Best chane of winning, "statistically", is the first best you place regardless of game. After that the odds incremently increase in favor of the house. So, how does that "statistically" translate over to EAllusion's absurd 1 in a 1000 stat? Nevertheless, the blatant and heavy handed point was that EAllusion was diminishing reality via some clumsy attempt to garner authority from a meaningless statistic. When in reality, it only takes 1 time....first or last.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
subgenius wrote:
Literally takes only 1 time - every time. Diminishing the risk through a voodoo metric lens is an absurd tack on the topic.

Do you tell this to yourself every time you buy your lottery ticket?

no, but the "you can't win if you don't play" rings a bell.

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If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm 
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I can’t even right now.

Quote:
Subgenius - Statistics Course

Everything is a 100% chance of happening or not happening.

Fin.


Founding Fathers.

- Doc

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:04 pm 
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Quantum Physicist: The probability of an electron being in position "x" is...

Interrupting subbie: 1 because it is where it is.

Nobel Committee: For his brilliant theory of everything, "It is what it is", the Nobel in Physics goes to subgenius!

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:41 am 
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EAllusion wrote:
If it was 5 in 100k vs. 15 in 100k, that's an absolute difference of 10 in 100k for triple the risk. 10 more people in a population of thousands upon thousands. That's a tiny difference.


About 4 hundred 19 year olds were diagnosed with HIV in 2016. The number jumps to about 1,600 for 25 year olds in the same year. There are about 4 million 25 year olds in the US, so that means about 1 in 2,500 got diagnosed with HIV in 2016. 1 in 2,500 is too high. Your chance of being infected by a 19 year old is about 1 in 10,000. It is statistically safer to be in a relationship with an 18-19 year old. But it is probably too late for me, soon I will be forced to forget about younger women.

Image

DoubtingThomas wrote:
Forget about the numbers. You said you can know a woman by hanging out with her, so how can you know the lifestyle that a 25 year old woman had 5 to 7 years ago?


Last edited by DoubtingThomas on Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:02 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:54 am 
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Themis wrote:
It's obvious to everyone here you have other personal issues keeping you from finding a nice women to have a good relationship with

Yes, work and not many friends.

Themis wrote:
You would do well to get professional counseling to help you recognize and deal with some of these personal problems.

I do need it.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:10 am 
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honorentheos wrote:
Quantum Physicist: The probability of an electron being in position "x" is...

Interrupting subbie: 1 because it is where it is.

Nobel Committee: For his brilliant theory of everything, "It is what it is", the Nobel in Physics goes to subgenius!

:lol: :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:24 am 
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DoubtingThomas wrote:
About 4 hundred 19 year olds were diagnosed with HIV in 2016. The number jumps to about 1,600 for 25 year olds in the same year. There are about 4 million 25 year olds in the US, so that means about 1 in 2,500 got diagnosed with HIV in 2016.

Those odds are really really low, and don't take into account most with aids take drugs making it practically zero chance of getting aids from them even without a condom. I think you are using this as a poor argument to justify to others your desire to date 18 year olds. 18 is old enough to date people many decades older then them, so if they want to date you there is nothing wrong with that. Go for it if that's what you want, but you obviously have more issues then work and your lack of friends is probably due to these issues you need help with. Most young girls though will not want a guy a lot older then them, and you lose a lot of chance of finding a nice girl who is a little older by using sti's when I think even you know it is not reasonable argument.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am 
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Themis wrote:
Those odds are really really low, and don't take into account most with aids take drugs making it practically zero chance of getting aids from them even without a condom.

1 in 10,000 diagnosed with HIV each year is much lower than 1 in 2,500. I do not feel 1 in 2,500 is negligible. The probably of getting HIV from a 25 year old that is not married is probably about 1 in 1,000. There are other aggressive and dangerous STDs.

Themis wrote:
Most young girls though will not want a guy a lot older then them

True, but I am probably not a lot older I hope, at least not yet. But I realize my chances are getting lower fast and I should probably forget about younger women. A relationship is better than no relationship.

Themis wrote:
Those odds are really really low, and don't take into account most with aids take drugs

How would I know that a 25 year old was not a drug user or had a lot of sex 5 to 7 years ago? But I realize I am going to have to date someone at least 23 years old and use a condom.


Last edited by DoubtingThomas on Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:27 am 
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When I date an experienced 23+ year old if I am not good in bed she will know, and it would be so sad. I promise to attack religion and the LDS church for the rest of my life.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:36 am 
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Hey DT

DoubtingThomas wrote:
A relationship is better than no relationship.

Friend, this is not true.

It is the specific and individual relationship that must be looked upon to make determinations like the one you made above. Relationships come in many sizes, flavors and complexities. Recognizing that is critically important.

Good luck.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:27 pm 
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DoubtingThomas wrote:
1 in 10,000 diagnosed with HIV each year is much lower than 1 in 2,500. I do not feel 1 in 2,500 is negligible. The probably of getting HIV from a 25 year old that is not married is probably about 1 in 1,000. There are other aggressive and dangerous STDs.


No one in their right minds would think this way DT. That you tells me you have a problem. The numbers are still really really low and people use certain skills and abilities when they get to know someone they are interested in maybe having a long term relationship with. This will of course help to reduce the risk even more.

Reality is you have to do risk reward assessments in all areas of your life. I suspect you don't stay in your home 24/7 to avoid some of the real risks of leaving the home, and you are probably good at doing those risk/reward assessments. Why then are you so terrible with this risk/reward assessment? I suspect again that you are looking to justify in your own mind your interest in a relationship with as young a girl as you can legally date. This issue as well as maybe some others are really hurting you now and into the future unless you seek some help. If you can then you have a much better chance of finding a nice girl who might be 18-20 or maybe even a nice girl who is 25 or 30. Age is not what you should be looking at, and is a horrible indicator of whether a person has some sti.

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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:29 am 
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DoubtingThomas wrote:
About 4 hundred 19 year olds were diagnosed with HIV in 2016. The number jumps to about 1,600 for 25 year olds in the same year. There are about 4 million 25 year olds in the US, so that means about 1 in 2,500 got diagnosed with HIV in 2016. 1 in 2,500 is too high. Your chance of being infected by a 19 year old is about 1 in 10,000. It is statistically safer to be in a relationship with an 18-19 year old. But it is probably too late for me, soon I will be forced to forget about younger women.

The CDC estimated odds of contracting HIV from a single act of vaginal sexual intercourse with an HIV positive person is about 4 in 10,000 exposures.

https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/risk/estimates/ ... viors.html

And this is before taking into account risk reducing behaviors ranging from condom use to the HIV positive person being properly treated before intercourse. So the real number for a responsible person is even significantly lower than that already low number.

Then take into account the fact that a certain % of HIV positive people are 1) aware of it and will inform you and/or 2) engage in high risk behavior you should pick up on through relationship building prior to having sex. This suppresses the odds that you'll randomly have a sexual encounter with an HIV positive person further than the general infection rate would dictate.

So you have this quite low risk of encountering a person who is infected multiplied by a very low risk of transmission even if you do. The result is you have an extremely low risk of contracting HIV. Moreover, the difference in risk between a 19 year old and a 25 year old is very small because it's just a 4 fold increase in a tiny number.

If I told you that you have a 4 fold increased risk in getting rare disease X if you brush your teeth, would you stop brushing your teeth? That depends. If "4 fold" means it increases your absolute odds from .00000002% to .00000008%, one would hope the answer is no. Another way of saying that is it increases your odds by .00000006%, and .00000006% increased chance of rare disease X is outweighed by the benefits of brushing your teeth.

You don't want to encourage unsafe sex practices, because HIV incidence rates are determined by the behavior of populations of millions, but the reality is it's just a very low risk and age of partner doesn't move that risk much in absolute terms. You are doing the equivalent of declaring you aren't going to go outside because you don't want to be mugged, only with having sex with teens, so it comes across as much creepier.


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 Post subject: Re: your sexual history does matter
PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:47 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
The CDC estimated odds of contracting HIV from a single act of vaginal sexual intercourse with an HIV positive person is about 4 in 10,000 exposures.

Thank you for the reference. 4 in 10,000 is 1 in 2,500 exposures (the same number I calculated for a 25 year old).

EAllusion wrote:
the reality is it's just a very low risk and age of partner doesn't move that risk much in absolute terms.

Maybe not the age by itself. What are the odds of getting HIV or a dangerous STD from a sexually experienced (low income) 25 year old that is not married, excluding 25 year olds that are not attractive or have too many problems? Low income because it will obviously be a woman making less than me. A young woman making more than me will never consider me. I suspect the odds are more than 1 in 2,500.

EAllusion wrote:
You are doing the equivalent of declaring you aren't going to go outside because you don't want to be mugged, only with having sex with teens, so it comes across as much creepier.

I do want to date a 25 year old (especially now), but I would feel safer and better dating someone younger. I didn't enjoy my teenage years like you, it is easy for you to call me a creep.

I do have another concern. When I date an experienced 23+ year old if I am not good in bed she will know, and it would be so sad. Please answer that one.


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