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 Post subject: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:44 am 
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So, waaaay back in the 90's Ross Perot basically ran on a platform decrying the federal deficit and how it would be disastrous if we kept going down the road of a massive government debt. President Trump also made a promise to balance the budget 'fairly quickly':

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... y-quickly/

Quote:
"I don't think he's kept to any definition of shrinking the deficit quickly," said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "It's only gotten more out of balance. It was not completely his doing — it was already projected to rise — but a large share of the increase comes from what he signed into law."


This is clearly a bipartisan issue, since it seems both parties are colluding to balloon our deficit. I understand the arguments both for and against carrying a debt, however now that we're in what seems to be a quickly escalating debt scenario would anyone care to weigh in on the pros and cons of this issue? What would be the optimal scenario for you in regards to federal debt, and how would that impact our standard of living and by extension our republic?

- Doc

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:03 am 
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One of the very few things that I found attractive about a Trump ticket several years ago was his talk about dumping tons of money into infrastructure. But I now realize that Trump is about vanity. He wants to do new things so his name gets credit for them. Like moving the embassy to Jerusalem was more about being able to say he's the President who did this. And its got the PM of Israel to name a settlement after him in the Golan Heights called "Trump Heights." The whole space program thing was about him wanting his name on things. But just like his airplanes, casinos and hotels, anything with his name on it becomes toxic.

No one really believed a word he said about shrinking deficits and reducing the debt to zero. Well, maybe his idiot base.

As far as the debt goes, I'm not a big believer in the fear mongering about it. EAllusion and I had a discussion about this some years ago, and we obviously disagree. I think it mattered more when most currency was circulating as hard currency dollars, but nowadays almost everything is electronic transfers. The government isn't literally "printing more money" to keep up with the debt as people say. I think that if $20 trillion in debt doesn't even begin to cause all the apocalyptic chaos as was predicted when it was just $3 trillion, then I doubt the predictions carry much water to begin with. Weren't we supposed to be stagflated and hyperinflated back in 2009? We've since doubled the debt and still no hint of it affecting inflation dramatically.


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:44 pm 
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Kevin Graham wrote:
As far as the debt goes, I'm not a big believer in the fear mongering about it. EAllusion and I had a discussion about this some years ago, and we obviously disagree. I think it mattered more when most currency was circulating as hard currency dollars, but nowadays almost everything is electronic transfers. The government isn't literally "printing more money" to keep up with the debt as people say. I think that if $20 trillion in debt doesn't even begin to cause all the apocalyptic chaos as was predicted when it was just $3 trillion, then I doubt the predictions carry much water to begin with. Weren't we supposed to be stagflated and hyperinflated back in 2009? We've since doubled the debt and still no hint of it affecting inflation dramatically.


Kinda reminds me of the housing market a little over a decade ago.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:29 pm 
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I’ll apologize up front as I haven’t tried to find out the answer yet on my own, but I’ll ask this to the smarter folks here:

Setting aside the question of whether or not the Fed would or could simply print more dollars to throw at the debt, doesn’t a rising debt still imply that we must devote more dollars to servicing it, therefore it does have a ‘real’ (if not relatively small) impact on the overall budget and total dollars available for other expenditures?


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:06 pm 
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canpakes wrote:
I’ll apologize up front as I haven’t tried to find out the answer yet on my own, but I’ll ask this to the smarter folks here:

Setting aside the question of whether or not the Fed would or could simply print more dollars to throw at the debt, doesn’t a rising debt still imply that we must devote more dollars to servicing it, therefore it does have a ‘real’ (if not relatively small) impact on the overall budget and total dollars available for other expenditures?


The smarter folks are busy, but you’re correct. The impact has been blunted because the fed has been holding interest rates low. If interest rates rise, the debt service cost also increases.

Kevin is confusing the money supply with paper currency.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:15 pm 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
canpakes wrote:
I’ll apologize up front as I haven’t tried to find out the answer yet on my own, but I’ll ask this to the smarter folks here:

Setting aside the question of whether or not the Fed would or could simply print more dollars to throw at the debt, doesn’t a rising debt still imply that we must devote more dollars to servicing it, therefore it does have a ‘real’ (if not relatively small) impact on the overall budget and total dollars available for other expenditures?


The smarter folks are busy, but you’re correct. The impact has been blunted because the fed has been holding interest rates low. If interest rates rise, the debt service cost also increases.

Kevin is confusing the money supply with paper currency.

Thanks. Your answer also touches on what would have been my second question, about what might possibly be the greater motivating factor for Trump to be all over the Fed for a rate cut. In other words, a rate cut would slow down the rate of debt increase (and reduce the amount required to service it), keeping the total debt situation looking slightly less hideous. I’d imagine that Trump worries more about that rather than a rate cut being ‘more beneficial’ to general consumers because there are more than a few folks within his hard core base who also freak out about debt ... and Trump will otherwise be perceived as pushing that to record high levels.


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:23 pm 
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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
So, waaaay back in the 90's Ross Perot basically ran on a platform decrying the federal deficit and how it would be disastrous if we kept going down the road of a massive government debt. President Trump also made a promise to balance the budget 'fairly quickly':

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... y-quickly/

Quote:
"I don't think he's kept to any definition of shrinking the deficit quickly," said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "It's only gotten more out of balance. It was not completely his doing — it was already projected to rise — but a large share of the increase comes from what he signed into law."


This is clearly a bipartisan issue, since it seems both parties are colluding to balloon our deficit. I understand the arguments both for and against carrying a debt, however now that we're in what seems to be a quickly escalating debt scenario would anyone care to weigh in on the pros and cons of this issue? What would be the optimal scenario for you in regards to federal debt, and how would that impact our standard of living and by extension our republic?

- Doc


I don’t know what level of debt would be acceptable, but I would like to see the government have room to stimulate the economy in times of recession. The idea is that we can help minimize the impact of recessions by deficit spending to put people to work and jump start the economy. Then, when the economy is growing, recover the additional debt by running a surplus. Cutting taxes when the economy is doing well is exactly the wrong thing to do. So is cutting interest rates to near zero to try and hold off a recession. When the inevitable next recession hits, the government will have a reduced ability to help the economy recover.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:31 pm 
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canpakes wrote:
Thanks. Your answer also touches on what would have been my second question, about what might possibly be the greater motivating factor for Trump to be all over the Fed for a rate cut. In other words, a rate cut would slow down the rate of debt increase (and reduce the amount required to service it), keeping the total debt situation looking slightly less hideous. I’d imagine that Trump worries more about that rather than a rate cut being ‘more beneficial’ to general consumers because there are more than a few folks within his hard core base who also freak out about debt ... and Trump will otherwise be perceived as pushing that to record high levels.


I think it’s a straight up political calculation. If the economy starts headed toward recession, his prospects for reelection get bleak. He’s leaning on the Fed to keep the economy from souring before next November. But the more he uses up the limited tools we have to stimulate the economy, the less our ability will be to affect the magnitude or duration of the recession when it hits. I fear our next recession will be long and painful.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:34 pm 
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I guess whoever refuses to kick the can down the road will get blamed for the economy and be voted out of office very quickly. Perhaps this is a weakness of our form of government that cannot be corrected.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:59 pm 
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ajax18 wrote:
I guess whoever refuses to kick the can down the road will get blamed for the economy and be voted out of office very quickly. Perhaps this is a weakness of our form of government that cannot be corrected.

Whoever refuses? I think that you have that backwards.

In the meantime, your hero is doing his best to accelerate a rapid rise of debt. Thank you for having voted to help destroy America. o_O


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:07 pm 
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Quote:

In the meantime, your hero is doing his best to accelerate a rapid rise of debt. Thank you for having voted to help destroy America. o_O


Having debt doesn't seem to be a partisan issue. Why we need to be in debt is what we argue about. Getting out of debt is a political impossibility and completely out of the question.

It's kind of like marriage. You either go into debt or have your earnings taken forcibly in family court. Either way you will continue working and continue to accrue more debt as long as you live.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:06 am 
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ajax18 wrote:
It's kind of like marriage. You either go into debt or have your earnings taken forcibly in family court. Either way you will continue working and continue to accrue more debt as long as you live.

The way you phrase things, it sounds as if at some point both your experience in marital relationships and the fundamentals of family economics seem to have taken a dreadful turn down a very dark path. o_O

In any event, it's good to see another conservative sacred cow now deemed unimportant and ready to be tossed into the scrap heap, owing to Trump's tendency to worsen what was once previously perceived to be merely 'bad'. First, it was the LPR. Now, we can pretend that the debt is unimportant. But who needs principles when one can instead lap up the twitterized, bitter pablum sloppily drizzled onto their plate by the orange-haired Kardashian of Washington?


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:33 am 
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Quote:
Now, we can pretend that the debt is unimportant.


First off I salute Kevin for at least being consistent on his position that deficits don't matter. Unfortunately I can't be so optimistic. I think we're going to get hit pretty hard by this debt at some point and I certainly don't believe it doesn't matter. But with the way our political system is set up changing the status quo seems impossible. It would take a radical revolution. Just taxing the rich even at 100% (which is impossible because nobody making over $200k/yr would keep working for free out of patriotic duty and brotherly love) would not even put a dent in this astronomical national debt.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:40 am 
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ajax18 wrote:
...nobody making over $200k/yr would keep working for free out of patriotic duty and brotherly love...

No worries. The President will just order them to keep working.
: )


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:43 pm 
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canpakes wrote:
I’ll apologize up front as I haven’t tried to find out the answer yet on my own, but I’ll ask this to the smarter folks here:

Setting aside the question of whether or not the Fed would or could simply print more dollars to throw at the debt, doesn’t a rising debt still imply that we must devote more dollars to servicing it, therefore it does have a ‘real’ (if not relatively small) impact on the overall budget and total dollars available for other expenditures?

I'm not sure if this is germane, but wasn't Germany's hyperinflation of the 20's caused by simply printing more money to pay down its war debts from the Treaty of Versailles?

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:03 am 
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Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
What would be the optimal scenario for you in regards to federal debt, and how would that impact our standard of living and by extension our republic?

- Doc

The optimal situation for me, personally, might be a bit of hyper-inflation. If the price of things doubled over night:

1- The nominal value of my house would jump from $500k to $1M
2- My salary would double
3- My mortgage payment would stay the same
4- The percentage of my income that goes to paying my mortgage would go down by 50%

On a national scale:

1- The GDP would double
2- The nominal debt would stay about the same
3- the national debt/GDP would go down by 50%

The group that would screwed the hardest in this scenario is the Chinese bondholders--the real value of the U.S. bonds they own would go down by 50%.

Inflation is really just a massive transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers.

Fundamentally, what matters is that the real GDP stay high--that we keep producing useful goods and services. Money is just a key element in the system for deciding how to divvy up the pie. Changing the value of money changes the size of your claim of the pie, but it doesn't change the size of the pie.

All that said, in the real world hyperinflation would be accompanied by a massive recession. That would suck. If my theoretical hourly wage doubled because the price of everything doubles but I can't find a job because of the recession, I'm still screwed.

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Last edited by Analytics on Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:27 am 
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Res Ipsa wrote:
canpakes wrote:
Thanks. Your answer also touches on what would have been my second question, about what might possibly be the greater motivating factor for Trump to be all over the Fed for a rate cut. In other words, a rate cut would slow down the rate of debt increase (and reduce the amount required to service it), keeping the total debt situation looking slightly less hideous. I’d imagine that Trump worries more about that rather than a rate cut being ‘more beneficial’ to general consumers because there are more than a few folks within his hard core base who also freak out about debt ... and Trump will otherwise be perceived as pushing that to record high levels.


I think it’s a straight up political calculation. If the economy starts headed toward recession, his prospects for reelection get bleak. He’s leaning on the Fed to keep the economy from souring before next November. But the more he uses up the limited tools we have to stimulate the economy, the less our ability will be to affect the magnitude or duration of the recession when it hits. I fear our next recession will be long and painful.


I think it's more basic than that. Trump borrows a lot of money, and he owns a lot of real estate. Low interest rates are good for borrowers, and low interest rates help boost the value of real estate.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:03 pm 
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canpakes wrote:
Your answer also touches on what would have been my second question, about what might possibly be the greater motivating factor for Trump to be all over the Fed for a rate cut.

The historic, simple reason for the Fed to cut rates has been to loosen access to credit so more money moves around in the economy and to raise rates/make the cost of borrowing higher to cool things down to prevent over-inflation. I don't think Trump has complicated thoughts when he vocally claims the Fed is hurting the economy. I think he wants to remove all breaks on the throttle so that the engine burns red hot because it doesn't matter to him if it burns out as a result so long as it remains hot when he needs it to do so. I've said before that Fox News and the like priming their base to then blame Democrats for any economic slowdown or retreat. The current narrative they are sharing is that Democrats WANT a recession because it hurts Trump so the media is trying to convince people things are bad despite things being good. It's clever in that it politicizes any attempt at managing economy rather than treating doing so as the act of a responsible government. One should be cautious letting politicization of the economy become the lens one then uses to consider what needs to be done or what is best including the national debt load. That goes for both sides of the political spectrum.

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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:34 pm 
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Analytics wrote:
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
What would be the optimal scenario for you in regards to federal debt, and how would that impact our standard of living and by extension our republic?

- Doc

The optimal situation for me, personally, might be a bit of hyper-inflation. If the price of things doubled over night:

1- The nominal value of my house would jump from $500k to $1M
2- My salary would double
3- My mortgage payment would stay the same
4- The percentage of my income that goes to paying my mortgage would go down by 50%

On a national scale:

1- The GDP would double
2- The nominal debt would stay about the same
3- the national debt/GDP would go down by 50%

The group that would screwed the hardest in this scenario is the Chinese bondholders--the real value of the U.S. bonds they own would go down by 50%.

Inflation is really just a massive transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers.

Fundamentally, what matters is that the real GDP stay high--that we keep producing useful goods and services. Money is just a key element in the system for deciding how to divvy up the pie. Changing the value of money changes the size of your claim of the pie, but it doesn't change the size of the pie.

All that said, in the real world hyperinflation would be accompanied by a massive recession. That would suck. If my theoretical hourly wage doubled because the price of everything doubles but I can't find a job because of the recession, I'm still screwed.
Stagflation is a thing.


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:40 pm 
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honorentheos wrote:
canpakes wrote:
Your answer also touches on what would have been my second question, about what might possibly be the greater motivating factor for Trump to be all over the Fed for a rate cut.

The historic, simple reason for the Fed to cut rates has been to loosen access to credit so more money moves around in the economy and to raise rates/make the cost of borrowing higher to cool things down to prevent over-inflation. I don't think Trump has complicated thoughts when he vocally claims the Fed is hurting the economy. I think he wants to remove all breaks on the throttle so that the engine burns red hot because it doesn't matter to him if it burns out as a result so long as it remains hot when he needs it to do so. I've said before that Fox News and the like priming their base to then blame Democrats for any economic slowdown or retreat. The current narrative they are sharing is that Democrats WANT a recession because it hurts Trump so the media is trying to convince people things are bad despite things being good. It's clever in that it politicizes any attempt at managing economy rather than treating doing so as the act of a responsible government. One should be cautious letting politicization of the economy become the lens one then uses to consider what needs to be done or what is best including the national debt load. That goes for both sides of the political spectrum.


Donald Trump has bled about 2 points in approvals over the past 2 weeks or so. That's probably because mere talk of some indicators of a possible recession while he flailed about hurt him a little. He's as popular as he is because of the perception of the economy. If you look at his job performance approvals on various issues, they are in the toilet aside from the economy, where he is just slightly underwater. The propaganda apparatus can try to blame Democrats all they want. Trump wouldn't escape how politics operates on this one.

If there's a serious recession by next summer, Trump is going down hard. It won't matter who he runs against. His chances are decent aside from this, but that condition is a death sentence for his campaign.

Republicans in general want loose monetary policy when they are in power and tight monetary policy when they are not. The break-neck flip-flopping on this from Obama to Trump goes way deeper than Trump. They know how this works and don't care if this is sound for the nation's economic health.


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 Post subject: Re: Federal Deficit - Help me out here.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:43 pm 
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ajax18 wrote:
Quote:
Now, we can pretend that the debt is unimportant.


First off I salute Kevin for at least being consistent on his position that deficits don't matter. Unfortunately I can't be so optimistic. I think we're going to get hit pretty hard by this debt at some point and I certainly don't believe it doesn't matter. But with the way our political system is set up changing the status quo seems impossible. It would take a radical revolution. Just taxing the rich even at 100% (which is impossible because nobody making over $200k/yr would keep working for free out of patriotic duty and brotherly love) would not even put a dent in this astronomical national debt.


If the deficit were significantly reduced, the debt would come down naturally as a % of GDP. There's still room to grow ourselves out of the problem. It's quite possible to have federal government spending in relation to taxation come back in line to not explode the deficit. Regardless of how you otherwise feel about it, high-end wealth taxes would significantly reduce the deficit.

The national debt isn't like a credit card debt. Its outstanding treasury bonds issued by an entity that prints its own money. Don't get me wrong. As Kevin points out, I do not think the deficit is inconsequential. I view it as a problem and monetizing the debt, if high enough, will not be without consequences. But it doesn't quite work like you imply.


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