It is currently Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:10 pm

All times are UTC - 7 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 69 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:54 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
honorentheos wrote:
I see Senator Sherrod Brown as someone who could bridge the two wings of the party, focus the discussion on economic issues that unite both urban and rural voters, and has a record on key progressive issues that should keep the Bernie burnout types from revolting. Plus, he'd help bring home Ohio.

ETA: found an article that helps articulate why.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/ ... mp-1012151


Ohio is probably lost to the Democrats even if Brown runs. They're that far gone. If Democrats are winning Ohio, they are winning states that already won them the presidency before it in a very commanding victory.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 3:56 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
DoubtingThomas wrote:
EAllusion wrote:
she is popular in California


Quote:
The first Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom survey before the 2020 caucuses shows Biden beginning a potential bid at 32 percent in Iowa, more than a dozen points ahead of the second-place candidate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The 2016 runner-up for the nomination is at 19 percent.

Outgoing Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who lost a Senate race last month, is in third place, at 11 percent. Slightly behind him are Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent, and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 5 percent


https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/ ... ts-1066661

I don't see Kamala Harris as the front runner.


I thought you didn't like CNN's horserace coverage? Now you are citing it in your defense? Polls this far out aren't very predictive. If they were, they'd have been no point in anyone running against Hillary Clinton in 2008.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:51 pm 
God
User avatar

Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:17 pm
Posts: 9564
EAllusion wrote:
honorentheos wrote:
I see Senator Sherrod Brown as someone who could bridge the two wings of the party, focus the discussion on economic issues that unite both urban and rural voters, and has a record on key progressive issues that should keep the Bernie burnout types from revolting. Plus, he'd help bring home Ohio.

ETA: found an article that helps articulate why.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/ ... mp-1012151


Ohio is probably lost to the Democrats even if Brown runs. They're that far gone. If Democrats are winning Ohio, they are winning states that already won them the presidency before it in a very commanding victory.

Could be. But there is a lot that is going to happen between now and November 2020. Having a candidate from the state is good for a few points compared to a generic candidate as we all know, so that's a plus. Really for me it comes down to Brown hitting on the message I think is the right one...so far. My guess is for you there he would normally be a mix bag, plus on the social issues and minus on the economic ones. I'm sure it's a no brainer in a race between him and Trump or Pence. Right now I like the look of that race much more than any other candidate who appears to be on the long list.

_________________
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth?
~ Eiji Yoshikawa


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:00 pm 
God
User avatar

Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 11:17 pm
Posts: 9564
Doctor CamNC4Me wrote:
Quote:
“I don’t play off American workers against Mexican workers," Brown told POLITICO, even as he touted his ability to draw support from “a lot of Trump voters.”

"I don’t inject race in it,” he added. “I don’t inject anti-foreigner sentiment in it.”


I like that outlook and the implied positive political governance.

- Doc

Like everyone, he has his downsides. And he was vulnerable in 2018. Maybe even too progressive to win barely purplish states like Arizona. But in an election where the party is almost certainly at risk of getting lost in niche or unrealistically grandiose progressive eddies vs. Clinton/Biden era Democrat-atives, his platform might strike the right balance needed to both keep the lefty-est of Democrats on the bus while bringing back voters who really don't care about party so much as wanting Washington to seem like it's working for them.

Here's another one:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/us/p ... ident.html

_________________
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth?
~ Eiji Yoshikawa


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:27 am 
God
User avatar

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 6:50 am
Posts: 12378
Location: Your mother's purse
EAllusion wrote:
subgenius wrote:
I find the list here interesting inasmuch as it reflects an unimaginative DNC that seems to think their old way is still the good way. Odd strategy, but a certain victory for any Republican in 2020.
Do Democrats currently have no one bona fide candidate for 2020?
The only way for you to accept a Democratic candidate is "bona fide" is for them to be a Republican, so I'm guessing that no, they won't have a "bona fide" candidate for 2020 in your eyes.

Nope, but i understand why you might think that.
But the real show is the looming showdown between DNC and States over this whole voter data issue.

_________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 12:53 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
I thought you didn't like CNN's horserace coverage? Now you are citing it in your defense? Polls this far out aren't very predictive. If they were, they'd have been no point in anyone running against Hillary Clinton in 2008.


Right, but the only available data doesn't show her as the front runner. False and misleading headlines do make an impact.


Last edited by DoubtingThomas on Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 1:01 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion I know you are smarter and better than this.

"CNN Completely & Shamelessly Makes Up 2020 Dem Frontrunner"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bulE-ncl9cA


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 2:35 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
DoubtingThomas wrote:
EAllusion I know you are smarter and better than this.

"CNN Completely & Shamelessly Makes Up 2020 Dem Frontrunner"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bulE-ncl9cA


I'm not sure why you expected me to listen to that 14 minute youtube video of someone ranting about Harris. If you accept the premise that it's Ok for CNN (really, Harry Enten) to power-rank Democratic candidates, then picking Harris as the top one becomes very reasonable because she hits a lot of key factors you'd look at when predicting who would be successful in a Dem primary. Again, she's the top pick in betting markets for this same reason. She is a forecasting darling. It's not a reach. She naturally appeals to key Democratic constituencies, has a strong fundraising base, and hails from one of the two or three most important states in the primary process. She's also been using her Senate time to build up a voting record that coheres perfectly with what mainstream Democrats want. It makes sense. She already dominates minority women polls and they are a very powerful voting bloc in the Democratic primary process. It's like finding out a Republican is dominating evangelicals. That's not determinate, but it's a positive sign. This doesn't mean she's an unassailable favorite or anything. Nobody has >50% odds of winning the Dem primary at this point because the field is so split. But, again, if you're going to powerrank candidates, then someone has to be on top.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:15 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
If you accept the premise that it's Ok for CNN (really, Harry Enten) to power-rank Democratic candidates, then picking Harris as the top one becomes very reasonable because she hits a lot of key factors you'd look at when predicting who would be successful in a Dem primary.


It is all opinion and declaring someone the front runner without the numbers to back it up is called election interference. It is a free ad. When was the last time a news organization declared someone the front runner without poll numbers to back it up? How can you call someone with a 20% favorability the front runner?


EAllusion wrote:
She naturally appeals to key Democratic constituencies, has a strong fundraising base, and hails from one of the two or three most important states in the primary process.


Yes, she could win the Democratic primary and become the next president of the United States, but she is not the front runner because she doesn't have the numbers yet.

According the video Fox News predicted Tim Pawlenty was going to win the Republican nomination, but quickly dropped out.

EAllusion wrote:
(really, Harry Enten) to power-rank Democratic candidates


and Chris Cillizza https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdbd6nBzGH0.

EAllusion wrote:
But, again, if you're going to powerrank candidates, then someone has to be on top.


When has someone been at the top without the numbers?

EAllusion wrote:
She is a forecasting darling. It's not a reach.



"Respondents were nearly split on Sen. Kamala Harris, another leading contender, with 20 percent saying they view her favorably and 22 percent viewing her unfavorably"
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... n-new-poll


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:42 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
. She's also been using her Senate time to build up a voting record that coheres perfectly with what mainstream Democrats want..


Mainstream Democrats won't like that she failed to prosecute Steven Mnuchin and OneWest Bank. You can defender her all you want, but that doesn't look good in Democratic politics.


EAllusion wrote:
has a strong fundraising base,


You mean a strong fundraising base with wealthy donors? Mainstream Democrats are getting tired of super Pacs and wealthy donors.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:48 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
DoubtingThomas wrote:
EAllusion wrote:
If you accept the premise that it's Ok for CNN (really, Harry Enten) to power-rank Democratic candidates, then picking Harris as the top one becomes very reasonable because she hits a lot of key factors you'd look at when predicting who would be successful in a Dem primary.


It is all opinion...


In the sense that everything is an opinion? Sure. In the sense that it's just guessing based on arbitrary preferences? No, the forecasting going on here is better than that.

Quote:
and declaring someone the front runner without the numbers to back it up is called election interference.


Called by you? Sharing an opinion on who is most likely to win is not interfering with an election.

Quote:
When was the last time a news organization declared someone the front runner without poll numbers to back it up?


Well, 538, where Harry Enten comes from, has been power ranking Democratic primary candidates since 2016.

Quote:
How can you call someone with a 20% favorability the front runner.


They explained it to you. Again, why do you think betting markets have her as the favorite? This was the case before this article was published, so don't answer, "because of this article."

Quote:
EAllusion wrote:
(really, Harry Enten) to power-rank Democratic candidates


and Chris Cillizza https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdbd6nBzGH0.

I'm not sure what Cilizza is doing in that article, as this is classic Enten writing and not so much Cilliza. Who knows what he did to get that byline. Write the headline would be my first guess. Listen to what Enten says, say "me too" and take half the credit would be my second guess.

Quote:
When has someone been at the top without the numbers?


It seems like your real problem here is you don't understand that it is possible to make predictions on who is going to win without looking at poll numbers based on an understanding of voter behavior and candidate traits. The neat thing about this is that fundamentals are a better basis right now for predictions than poll numbers are.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:26 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
No, the forecasting going on here is better than that.


Since July 2017

"Freshman Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has recently become the subject of much speculation about a potential 2020 presidential run. Several major news outlets have run feature-length profiles of Harris, and top Democratic donors are starting to coalesce around her as their preferred candidate to take on President Donald Trump."
https://mic.com/articles/183105/democra ... .1Qm2ivnAt

EAllusion wrote:
Called by you? Sharing an opinion on who is most likely to win is not interfering with an election.


Headlines do influence and thousands will support her only because she is the "front runner". It is like a free ad for her. It is a well known that many voters like to support front runners. You can't deny that fact!

EAllusion wrote:
They explained it to you. Again, why do you think betting markets have her as the favorite? This was the case before this article was published, so don't answer, "because of this article."


Yes because with free CNN ads she has a good chance of winning the nomination.

and to quote again

Quote:
Freshman Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has recently become the subject of much speculation about a potential 2020 presidential run. Several major news outlets have run feature-length profiles of Harris, and top Democratic donors are starting to coalesce around her as their preferred candidate to take on President Donald Trump.


https://mic.com/articles/183105/democra ... .1Qm2ivnAt

It is disturbing!


EAllusion wrote:
It seems like your real problem here is you don't understand that it is possible to make predictions on who is going to win without looking at poll numbers based on an understanding of voter behavior and candidate traits. The neat thing about this is that fundamentals are a better basis right now for predictions than poll numbers are.


CNN shouldn't make predictions this early because the bandwagon effect is a problem. CNN knows better!


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:43 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion when was the last time a news organization declared someone the front runner without having the numbers?


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:38 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
DoubtingThomas wrote:
EAllusion when was the last time a news organization declared someone the front runner without having the numbers?


Again, 538, where the author of the CNN article you are linking comes from, has been doing this since the end of the 2016 election just like they do it every election since they've been a thing. 538 is a news organization currently owned by ABC. This is standard horse race coverage. One of the weird things about your criticism of not citing "the numbers" is that the prediction is coming from a data journalist relying on "the numbers." What you mean is, "the polls" but you give no reason to believe polls are a better basis for determining relative strength of candidates than other means. What you are actually trying to argue is that polls represent public opinion and therefore are a more democratic means of gauging support. But they aren't trying to measure public opinion. They're trying to forecast where public opinion will be over a year from now.

If you think that horserace coverage itself is inherently bad because it creates an unfair bandwagon effect, then make that argument instead. I explicitly carved out that premise so you could disagree with it if you want. Instead, you keep complaining about "the numbers" without really connecting that to an underlying point. Ironically, you've cited no numbers to indicate just how much this article on the internet from CNN contributers has impacted or will impact public opinion a year and a half from now. My guess is the answer is "so close to zero as to be indistinguishable from zero." But if you got numbers, by all means, cite them.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:53 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
Again, 538, where the author of the CNN article you are linking comes from, has been doing this since the end of the 2016 election just like they do it every election since they've been a thing


So what is your point?

EAllusion wrote:
If you think that horserace coverage itself is inherently bad because it creates an unfair bandwagon effect, then make that argument instead.


A horse-race coverage isn't inherently bad, but ABC and CNN need to stop kissing Kamala Harris's ass.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:06 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
Again, they're predicting Harris is a formidable candidate because there's lots of reasons to believe she is. I'm fairly certain I dislike her more than you do or will, and I'm able to understand that she's a strong candidate despite my personal feelings about her.

On a related note, almost immediately after announcing her candidacy, she's drawing in a ton of fundraising and shot way up to the top of Daily Kos's straw poll, which is often a decent proxy for support of left wing voters in the Dem coalition. I'm sure you're likely to interpret any success she has as a self-fulling prophecy, but really, this is because she's well-positioned within the Dem coalition.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:39 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
Again, they're predicting Harris is a formidable candidate because there's lots of reasons to believe she is.


Yes, it is like a positive feedback loop. CNN is giving her too much positive coverage to make her a front-runner.

EAllusion wrote:
On a related note, almost immediately after announcing her candidacy, she's drawing in a ton of fundraising and shot way up to the top of Daily Kos's straw poll, which is often a decent proxy for support of left wing voters in the Dem coalition. I'm sure you're likely to interpret any success she has as a self-fulling prophecy, but really, this is because she's well-positioned within the Dem coalition.


Right.


Last edited by DoubtingThomas on Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:46 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
I'm fairly certain I dislike her more than you do or will, and I'm able to understand that she's a strong candidate despite my personal feelings about her.


Joe Biden is the front runner and I don't like him.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:50 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
Nomination Politico/Morning Consult poll (01/18-01/22)

Biden 26, Sanders 16, O'Rourke 6, Harris 9, Booker 4, Warren 6, Bloomberg 2, Castro 2, Gabbard, Brown 1, Gillibrand 2


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:49 pm 
God

Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 1:04 am
Posts: 3448
EAllusion wrote:
On a related note, almost immediately after announcing her candidacy, she's drawing in a ton of fundraising and shot way up to the top of Daily Kos's straw poll, which is often a decent proxy for support of left wing voters in the Dem coalition. I'm sure you're likely to interpret any success she has as a self-fulling prophecy, but really, this is because she's well-positioned within the Dem coalition.


So far Kamala Harris isn't doing so well and her CNN Super Pac isn't helping her a lot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/09/us/p ... nding.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6730.html

And I suspect that most of the democratic primary voters watch CNN.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
 Post subject: Re: Thank You CNN
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:17 pm 
God

Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 6:39 am
Posts: 16401
DoubtingThomas wrote:
EAllusion wrote:
On a related note, almost immediately after announcing her candidacy, she's drawing in a ton of fundraising and shot way up to the top of Daily Kos's straw poll, which is often a decent proxy for support of left wing voters in the Dem coalition. I'm sure you're likely to interpret any success she has as a self-fulling prophecy, but really, this is because she's well-positioned within the Dem coalition.


So far Kamala Harris isn't doing so well and her CNN Super Pac isn't helping her a lot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/09/us/p ... nding.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6730.html

And I suspect that most of the democratic primary voters watch CNN.


The first link shows that she is in 5th place in small dollar online donations. Since it is narrowly focused on that subject, it doesn't mention donations over all. The second link shows her polling in 3rd in the 999 candidate gauntlet that is the Dem primary. Neither of these things constitute "not doing well."

If you want an example of cable news manufacturing support for a candidate, look at Howard Schultz. Polling showed his positive approval rating at 5% and negative at 50%. He has no natural constituency nor any attachment to any political apparatus. He's just rich and holds the specific type of centrist views that middle-brow journalists tend to like. That's it. And he was allowed to go on what amounted to cable news speaking tour to campaign for himself and even got a nationally televised town hall on CNN. This is something several major Democratic candidates don't get and several minor ones could only dream of.

Saying Harris appears to be at the top of the ladder in forecasting in a crowded field is a responsible forecasting assessment. Harris still tops betting markets.


Top
 Profile  
Reply with quote  
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 69 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

All times are UTC - 7 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ajax18, Bret Ripley, Google [Bot], Icarus, MeDotOrg and 6 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  
Revival Theme By Brandon Designs By B.Design-Studio © 2007-2008 Brandon
Revival Theme Based off SubLite By Echo © 2007-2008 Echo
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group