Tax Reform 2018

[_subgenius]

It appears that the tax reform legislation will happen. And when a large portion of Americans experience larger paychecks in February, how do you think that will play in November?

[_DoubtingThomas]

Listen dude! a report by economists, climate scientists, and policy experts estimates that by 2030 the cost of climate change and air pollution combined will rise to 3.2% of global GDP. I highly doubt the younger generations of today are going to forget that the Republican party was the anti-climate science party. When climate change badly hurts our economy the idea of small government would be seen as ridiculous. In am kind of grateful the Trump administration is accelerating climate change.

Secondly, when the Democrats make all undocumented immigrants US citizens that would mean that the Democrats would have about 12 million more votes. Ouch.

Thirdly, what the Hell is the Republican party going to do without Texas and Arizona? Latinos will make Texas and Arizona blue, and states like New Jersey won't be enough to make up.

Fourthly, the younger generations of today are more liberal than previous generations. I don't understand why Republicans want to slow down the inevitable death of the party.

Lastly, the GOP admits "Obamacare Premium Rates Expected To Soar In 2018". High Obamacare premiums will mostly hurt poor and lower middle class Americans in their 40s to 60s. Without the mandate it is going to get very ugly for old dudes. Good luck on 2018 dude.

[_subgenius]

Listen dude! a report by economists, climate scientists, and policy experts estimates that by 2030 the cost of climate change and air pollution combined will rise to 3.2% of global GDP. I highly doubt the younger generations of today are going to forget that the Republican party was the anti-climate science party. When climate change badly hurts our economy the idea of small government would be seen as ridiculous. In am kind of grateful the Trump administration is accelerating climate change.

Secondly, when the Democrats make all undocumented immigrants US citizens that would mean that the Democrats would have about 12 million more votes. Ouch.

Thirdly, what the Hell is the Republican party going to do without Texas and Arizona? Latinos will make Texas and Arizona blue, and states like New Jersey won't be enough to make up.

Fourthly, the younger generations of today are more liberal than previous generations. I don't understand why Republicans want to slow down the inevitable death of the party.

Lastly, the GOP admits "Obamacare Premium Rates Expected To Soar In 2018". High Obamacare premiums will mostly hurt poor and lower middle class Americans in their 40s to 60s. Without the mandate it is going to get very ugly for old dudes. Good luck on 2018 dude.

wow, all this by November 2018?

[_Xenophon]

It appears that the tax reform legislation will happen. And when a large portion of Americans experience larger paychecks in February, how do you think that will play in November?

I don't know subs, with Rubio now coming out against, Corker already a no and Lee on the fence this very well could be another failure for them. I wouldn't count this check until the vote passes, even then I wouldn't trust the "it's in the mail" line.

[_canpakes]

It appears that the tax reform legislation will happen. And when a large portion of Americans experience larger paychecks in February, how do you think that will play in November?

They'll use the extra handful of dollars to take care of the increase in their debt due to the increase in credit rates.

[_subgenius]

It appears that the tax reform legislation will happen. And when a large portion of Americans experience larger paychecks in February, how do you think that will play in November?

I don't know subs, with Rubio now coming out against, Corker already a no and Lee on the fence this very well could be another failure for them. I wouldn't count this check until the vote passes, even then I wouldn't trust the "it's in the mail" line.

and the OP question still remains - if a failure, how will that play? and if it passes, then how?

Point being, if a large group of voters actually see an increase in their take home pay, starting in February, will they view November elections differently than if they did not? Personally, I filter my answer through the idea that most of society's consumer subscribe to the financial strategy of "Don't tell me how much it cost, tell me how much is the monthly payment."

[_Xenophon]

and the OP question still remains - if a failure, how will that play? and if it passes, then how?

Point being, if a large group of voters actually see an increase in their take home pay, starting in February, will they view November elections differently than if they did not? Personally, I filter my answer through the idea that most of society's consumer subscribe to the financial strategy of "Don't tell me how much it cost, tell me how much is the monthly payment."

I suspect that individual voters probably will be pleased if there is more money in their pocket, I don't think that is a particularly prophetic pronouncement though. If it fails the reaction to that will be tied mostly in the narrative around it. So far it seems that the story is that the amount to your pocket probably won't be that much, if it is anything at all (Heaven help you if you have student debt) so I don't know how much public outcry there will be. It should also be noted that a huge selling point about the tax bill being pushed is that it will indirectly raise wages due to freeing up corporate monies. I think this is a dubious claim at best and may come back to bite Republicans if the results aren't there.

So far the economic growth that started under Obama has continued and that hasn't equaled much in the way of approval for Trump (despite even a modest uptick in manufacturing jobs year-over-year). Tax break or not, the economy will need to hold in order for the GOP to not be crucified at the poll (regardless of whether you think that fair or not) and only time will tell on that.

[_DoubtingThomas]

wow, all this by November 2018?

The republican party as we know it is eventually going to die. Anyways, read

The boom scenario for Trump is that tax reform will supercharge economic growth, juice the already soaring stock market, revive mothballed factories in Trump country and indirectly nurture his political recovery. All the better for the GOP if that happens before the midterm elections in November. But it's just as likely that benefits will take years to unfurl, are too small to enrich most Americans and may turn out to be a political loser because they could demonstrably deepen inequality and fan societal resentment. In that case, a political dividend from tax reform could be limited. Trump: We are 'days away' from passing promised tax cut

"In the next 11 months, how much are you going to change the economy and how much are people going to feel that change so that you are actually changing people's vote?" said Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow at the free market Pacific Research Institute.

"I don't think it is clear, especially because (the tax bill) has been jammed through in such a short period of time. It is going to take firms time to adjust and change their investments. You may not feel that short term impact."

Still, for a White House perpetually under siege, mired in internal acrimony and at the mercy of Trump's whims, the tax win, when it comes, will be huge.

Democrats will carp that it was passed in secret, soaks the rich and doesn't live up to its billing. But the measure will register as a significant achievement for the President and his GOP allies. Alongside the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, the bill represents Trump's best chance so far to permanently reshape the economy and American life.

But there are political factors at play that could deprive the President of full value for his victory, including the fact that he is such a polarizing figure.

And with 2018 shaping up as another year of turmoil, with crises like the nuclear showdown with North Korea spiking and the Russia probe potentially coming to fruition, it is possible that other major events will do more to shape the Republican Party's fate than tax reform.

[_Brackite]

I think that the tax reform bill is going to give a little boost to the economy, but it is going to increase the national debt. What happened to the Republicans that were concerned about the national debt under the Obama Presidency??

As for the November 2018 mid-term elections, here is what I think what will happen.

The Democrats will pick up somewhere between 20 to 30 House seats.

The Democrats will pick up two Senate seats from Nevada and Arizona here.

The Republicans will pick up two Senate seats from MO, MT, ND, WV, or Indiana. (Trump won all of those five states by double digits.) It will be 51 Republicans in the Senate with them still in control.

[_DoubtingThomas]

It appears that the tax reform legislation will happen. And when a large portion of Americans experience larger paychecks in February, how do you think that will play in November?

So Far

Manchin +6.0
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6258.html

McCaskill +1.0
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6280.html

Sinema +7.4
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6328.html

Now what do you think is going to happen when Americans see their healthcare premium cost go up this fall?