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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 5:06 am 
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It should be the right of every red blooded gun toter to look Hurricane Irma in the eye and blast away with assault rifles. We have a guaranteed freedom from reason.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:29 am 
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So the rain has really started coming down heavily in my neck of the woods, just to let you know. Of course, this is a huge storm, and we are accustomed to heavy rain in Florida. What we are concerned about are the sustained, heavy winds to come and the possible tornados. There will be tornados, no doubt, but whether they will hit my house or not . . . .


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:44 am 
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Well I'm in Atlanta and people are acting like its the end of the world.

I don't know. I think to some degree this is kinda overhyped. I was in Orlando during the back to back to back to back hurricanes in September 2004. Four straight weekends of hurricanes that crossed over the city from all sides. We hunkered down in an apartment building and was never in any real danger. Irma was a Cat 5 over the Atlantic and everyone was talking as if it were going to hit Miami as a Cat 5. But like all hurricanes it diminishes as soon as it hits land and that is what it did over Cuba. The eye is likely to hit the least populated area of Florida's lower SW coastline at which point it will drop to a Cat 3 or maybe Cat 2.

Not saying there isn't any danger, but this appears to be just more of the same for Florida residents.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:16 am 
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I guess we can get used anything if it comes often enough. But even Cat 2 hurricanes are nothing to be blase about.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:19 am 
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Kevin Graham wrote:
Well I'm in Atlanta and people are acting like its the end of the world.

I don't know. I think to some degree this is kinda overhyped. I was in Orlando during the back to back to back to back hurricanes in September 2004. Four straight weekends of hurricanes that crossed over the city from all sides. We hunkered down in an apartment building and was never in any real danger. Irma was a Cat 5 over the Atlantic and everyone was talking as if it were going to hit Miami as a Cat 5. But like all hurricanes it diminishes as soon as it hits land and that is what it did over Cuba. The eye is likely to hit the least populated area of Florida's lower SW coastline at which point it will drop to a Cat 3 or maybe Cat 2.

Not saying there isn't any danger, but this appears to be just more of the same for Florida residents.
It's only for some random fluctuations that were very much in question that Irma didn't hit Miami as a Cat 5. That's blind luck. It's still going to hit the Florida mainland as a huge Cat 4 hurricane. It's a bigger deal than most hurricanes that strike Florida.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 7:49 am 
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I know, but it looks like it is going to hit the least populated area. Basically the Florida everglades. The dangerous Cat 4 wind speeds are only around the eye wall, and once it hits land the winds begin to drop speed. I just don't see it riding up along the coastline as a Cat 4 by the time it reaches Tampa.

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But I'm in Atlanta where we'll probably see some 30 MPH gusts and the grocery stores are empty. Craziness.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:00 am 
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Hurricane Charley hit as a Cat 4 with sustained 130 mph winds in August 2004, and it landed very close to where Irma is expected to land.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:23 am 
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It's hard to have the right amount of urgency when talking about an event that has yet to unfold. I think there is a combination of factors: Government officials can either over or underestimate the potential harm. It's always easier to explain why you told people to leave a house that it still standing than to explain why you didn't tell people to leave a house that was destroyed. It's always better to err on the side of caution.

The other factor is the media. The bigger the storm, the more viewers. They obviously want to hype the destructive value.

A little aside: I spent many years working for ADT, the largest electronic security company in the country. ADT has numerous Central Stations around the country, where burglar and fire alarms were monitored. With the advent of massive computer power, it became feasible to consolidate alarm monitoring into giant 'Super Stations'.

One of those Super Stations is in Bradenton, Florida, right in the Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg area. Central Stations have emergency plans to divert alarm traffic to other Central Stations in the event of an emergency, but for a lot of different reasons it rarely works smoothly. So there's a good chance that hundreds of thousands of businesses across the country will essentially be without burglar or fire alarm monitoring while the storm passes over Bradenton.

Why did ADT put such a facility in a hurricane alley? In a word, costs. Land was cheap, and there was a cheap labor supply.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:59 am 
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Way too early to know what's actually going to happen, but there's blue chip simulations out showing Jose developing into a massive hurricane and striking around New York.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:04 pm 
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Kishkumen wrote:
So the rain has really started coming down heavily in my neck of the woods, just to let you know. Of course, this is a huge storm, and we are accustomed to heavy rain in Florida. What we are concerned about are the sustained, heavy winds to come and the possible tornados. There will be tornados, no doubt, but whether they will hit my house or not . . . .

Keep safe, Kishkumen. You and yours are in our thoughts.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:05 pm 
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Ah well, these storms bring back memories to me. I've been through tornado, wildfire, earthquake and multiple hurricanes. With regard to hurricane, the anticipation of what will happen makes it easy to identify with the folks in TX and FL. I find myself mentally keeping vigil with the folks in FL right now for that reason. My "once in a life time" hurricane wreaked havoc up and down the Eastern Seaboard for, I believe, a total of 9-10 days. And, where I lived was across the street from a marina so I remember the signal flags changing on the harbor master's building, and the wind ripping them when it finally picked up. Standing in the street saying "good bye" to my BFF. We were little, we didn't know if this was the actual end of us or not.

We moved to the upstairs of our house with a radio, a loaf of bread, and a jar of peanut butter. Probably jugs of water. Simple things. You couldn't see out of the windows for the driving gale force winds and rain. The next day, the 6ft dad of a friend who worked the First Aid station, walking down the street up to his shoulders floating a row boat to respond to a heart attack victim down the street, the uncle of my BFF. Furniture and large appliances actually floating down the street.

The next day was surreal. Walking down the stairs into waist deep water in the lower level and when the water subsided, the trees and boats in the street, not to mention the harbor master's building itself floating in the middle of the marina. That one was the talk of the town! Our car submerged in water. So strange! All my toys ruined, my dolls eyes had turned white--I still have one of them. ;-)

When you're a kid you don't forget these events. And, while we were able to recover basically on our own--neighbor helping neighbor, there was no FEMA--I do hope that folks who have the ability to do so will contribute to the disaster relief efforts that are so needed at this time.

What goes around comes around, okay?

Just do it if you can.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:08 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
Way too early to know what's actually going to happen, but there's blue chip simulations out showing Jose developing into a massive hurricane and striking around New York.


Ugh. This better be over by October is all I can say for my selfish self. The last time I flew out to the coast in October, I flew the day after a hurricane but I really needed to. God help us all and the Jersey Girl.

;-)

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:15 pm 
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Even more selfishness. Praying for protective enchantments over Hogwarts Universal.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 12:17 pm 
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Kishkumen wrote:
So the rain has really started coming down heavily in my neck of the woods, just to let you know. Of course, this is a huge storm, and we are accustomed to heavy rain in Florida. What we are concerned about are the sustained, heavy winds to come and the possible tornados. There will be tornados, no doubt, but whether they will hit my house or not . . . .


Oh you reported in. Thank you so much.

Prayers up and for Florida and safe passage for the Kishkumen tribe.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:14 pm 
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I can't help but laugh a little bit because the media has been turning this into some kind of apocalyptic event urging everybody to leave the state or else they are going to die. And here I am watching live CNN MSNBC and Fox News with their journalists standing on the streets in Miami and Naples where the eye is actually hitting leaning into the wind pointing out downed trees and such. Are journalists walking the streets during a hurricane invincible, or maybe the threat wasn't quite as bad as they let on. Anywho... seems like it has already been downgraded to a category 2 almost immediately after it hit the shore. It may not even be a category 1 by the time it reaches kishkumen. I remember standing outside during hurricanes that were Cat 1 with gusts of 100mph. No rain though, just wind.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:00 pm 
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Kevin Graham wrote:
I can't help but laugh a little bit because the media has been turning this into some kind of apocalyptic event urging everybody to leave the state or else they are going to die. And here I am watching live CNN MSNBC and Fox News with their journalists standing on the streets in Miami and Naples where the eye is actually hitting leaning into the wind pointing out downed trees and such. Are journalists walking the streets during a hurricane invincible, or maybe the threat wasn't quite as bad as they let on. Anywho... seems like it has already been downgraded to a category 2 almost immediately after it hit the shore. It may not even be a category 1 by the time it reaches kishkumen. I remember standing outside during hurricanes that were Cat 1 with gusts of 100mph. No rain though, just wind.


Will you let us know how it goes for you in ATL?

ETA: I keep seeing different categories on different news outlets. Hard to tell what's up.

ETA: You're right about the Cat 2. Just saw it on CNN.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:45 pm 
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Downgraded to Cat 1?? Not bad!

Is Orlando okay? I'm sorry I'm so selfish I know.

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:15 am 
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Two words. Hurricane Camille. Thankfully Hurricane Irma didn't turn out as destructive so far. But it is going to cost lots of money to repair the storm surge damage.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:30 am 
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Yesterday I saw the news guys say that the predicted 10-15 ft surge had been reduced to 3-5 ft. This thing was over-hyped as I suspected. It isn't even a hurricane anymore. I'm 300 miles north of the center and everyone here is still acting like an apocalyptic event is around the corner as the "storm" gets weaker and weaker by the hour. Good grief people. Looking outside right now, it looks like a normal dreary day with slight rain and a gentle breeze. Good thing we emptied all the shelves at Kroger!

My Dad is in Malabar and he was thinking about leaving but didn't want to risk running out of gas in the middle of nowhere while 6 million tried to leave the state on the same road.


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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:54 am 
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Jersey Girl wrote:
Downgraded to Cat 1?? Not bad!

Is Orlando okay? I'm sorry I'm so selfish I know.


There is good news and bad news.

The good news is that Orlando has survived with minimal damage.

The bad news is that ticket prices at Universal remain very high. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Pray Irma turns right
PostPosted: Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:27 pm 
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Kevin Graham wrote:
Yesterday I saw the news guys say that the predicted 10-15 ft surge had been reduced to 3-5 ft. This thing was over-hyped as I suspected. It isn't even a hurricane anymore. I'm 300 miles north of the center and everyone here is still acting like an apocalyptic event is around the corner as the "storm" gets weaker and weaker by the hour. Good grief people. Looking outside right now, it looks like a normal dreary day with slight rain and a gentle breeze. Good thing we emptied all the shelves at Kroger!

My Dad is in Malabar and he was thinking about leaving but didn't want to risk running out of gas in the middle of nowhere while 6 million tried to leave the state on the same road.


What you seem to be missing is that more catastrophic outcomes were on the table and only didn't happen for some random fluctuations that could've just as easily gone the other way. You have to warn people people to prepare for the worst of the realistic outcomes.

The worst thing that could happen here is for people to believe that serious hurricane warnings are just a bunch of hype and not prepare the next time a major warning comes through.


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