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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:37 pm 
God
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subgenius wrote:
Like in my profession, we don't claim "expertise" per se. But with science, one claiming "expertise" is just saying they are really good at observing and recording. I mean do you guys really give credence to someone who claims to predict the future?

And yet, your profession is completely dependent upon sound science and an understanding of some aspect and scope of it for the practitioner to be successful and licensing to be completed.

You do trust that science has worked out a way, including via observation and 'recording', to predict that your structures will stand, yes?


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:17 pm 
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Chap wrote:
The CCC wrote:
Science is worthless without the ability to make accurate predictions about the future.


I think that risks being an over-generalisation.

Thus for instance the science of geology largely arose in the effort to understand what kind of events in the past might have led to the creation of the rocks we see today. It's not really a very future oriented science, though it can point to some ongoing processes which will probably have future consequences.


Geology has given us the ability to predict volcanic eruptions with more accuracy.

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:27 pm 
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http://work.chron.com/advantages-being- ... 22048.html

Google says careers in geology:

Quote:
... are found in construction, energy, environmental protection, disaster detection and many other areas affected by the physical world. Geologists help build highways, predict earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and lay pipelines for natural gas and oil. For the individual who does not wish to be office-bound, geology is an ideal career since much of the geologist’s work is done in the field. It is an ideal career for the adventurous, for field work can take you to remote parts of the world. For the fitness buff it can be physically challenging. Geologists monitor earthquakes on the Pacific Rim to give advance tsunami warnings; they observe volcanoes to detect signs of eruptions; and, of course, they do tamer things like study rock layers to ensure that skyscrapers have stable foundations. Geologists find employment in energy, engineering, and scientific organizations, and government entities.


Extending this to climate change I don't see why we can't extend the same respect to climatologists:

https://www.omicsonline.org/climatology-importance.php

It's not like they're using a different scientific method of noting, recording, observing, and predicting events based on factually gathered data. I'd trust a climatologist more than I'd trust a gunsmith on the topic of climate change.

I'd trust a gunsmith on small arms weaponry more than I'd trust a climatologist.

Why the distrust? What's the issue with basing national policy on scientific data?

- Doc

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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:42 am 
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It may interfere with some companies, and their toady politicians making a buck.
SEE https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141282614


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 am 
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Subs latest shtick is to argue that legitimate science is just over-glorified stenography. It does not explain or predict. This is a sub-elementary school level of understanding of science and I think it is deliberate rather than naïve.

It's also a total distraction.

To the thread idea, whether hurricanes will become more frequent due to global warming is an area of debate within climatology with enough respectable opinion on either side to consider the issue uncertain. That Atlantic hurricanes are likely to be more intense due to more thermal energy in the oceans overwhelming any countervailing effects when they do form is more probable, though still subject to some respectable dissent.

Because climate only determines the propensity for weather events rather than something discrete events can be attributed to, you can't say anyone one hurricane is because of global warming. What you can say is that such events are more likely to happen because of it. So instead of Harvey being a once every 500 years on average event, global changes may now make it a once ever 20-30 years on average event.

It's profoundly harmful to just bury your head in the sand on the issue.


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 Post subject: Re: Harvey Devestatio
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 2:29 pm 
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EAllusion wrote:
Subs latest shtick is to argue that legitimate science is just over-glorified stenography. It does not explain or predict. This is a sub-elementary school level of understanding of science and I think it is deliberate rather than naïve.

It's also a total distraction.


Subby's main contribution to this forum is trolling. I notice he runs from threads like this as soon as he has been easily shown to be wrong. Never once has tried to engage how we determine who is considered knowledgeable enough to be considered an expert on the issue of climate.

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