As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated PG through PG-13.
_MeDotOrg
_Emeritus
Posts: 4761
Joined: Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:29 pm

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _MeDotOrg »

You are not seeing Alabamians deserting the Republican Party for the Democratic Party. You saw a man with genuinely fringe views about the Constitution, as well as credible allegations of a lot of inappropriate sexual behavior, barely lose. If Luther Strange had won the primary, he would have won the election.

Think about it like this: If you were a Republican strategist, and you wanted to lose Alabama, what would you have done that could be worse than the Roy Moore candidacy?

So we are now looking at a Democratic Senator in the 5th Reddest state in the country. If Trump cracked the 'blue wall' by taking Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, the Democrats broke into the GOP solid south by taking a seat in Red Alabama.

As long as the party defines itself as being anti-immigrant, distrustful of minorities and favoring economic policies that will dramatically exacerbate economic inequality, it is committing suicide, if it does not change its ways. But you could have made the exact same argument before the election of Donald Trump.

Remember the GOP postmortem on the 2012 Presidential election? Remember how the Party was supposed to reach out to minorities and worry about its long term viability? The party went the exact opposite way, and they still won. Republicans drank their own Kool-aid, and it tasted pretty good. People wanted tough-talking 'real' Americans, not infected with the stench of Washington.

It seems there is a pretty clear message in the loss of Roy Moore: If the GOP wants to win, don't run a suspected pedophile who waxes rhapsodic about family values during slavery. The question becomes what lesson the Bannon wing of the Party learns from the experience. Will pragmatism triumph over ideology? Will the party want to blow itself up rather than mover closer to the center?

2018 will be a pivotal year in American politics. The ground is shifting.
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization."
- Will Durant
"We've kept more promises than we've even made"
- Donald Trump
"Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist."
- Edwin Land
_subgenius
_Emeritus
Posts: 13326
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:50 pm

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _subgenius »

MeDotOrg wrote:...
2018 will be a pivotal year in American politics. The ground is shifting.

Seems a bit exaggerated. Policy, platform, or ideology didn't win or lose this election. The democrats ran on "look what he may have wanted to do with his penis!".
2018 will be won and lost by substance, and that hasn't changed for democrats. Democrats will have to come up with something better than relentless pedophile allegations in 2018, and right now that's all they got.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_Chap
_Emeritus
Posts: 14190
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 10:23 am

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _Chap »

subgenius wrote:The democrats ran on "look what he may have wanted to do with his penis!".


If 'what Moore wanted to do with his penis', was to use it to get sexual gratification out of girls in their early teens when he was a mature man in a position to exercise influence or coercion, then why would that not be a very proper aspect of Moore to talk about in the campaign? Especially when he made such a big thing about condemning sexual immorality, the need to get back to God, and so on and so forth?
Zadok:
I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis.
Maksutov:
That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _EAllusion »

Jones actually campaigned pretty hard on meat and potatoes Democrat economic policy. Healthcare and CHIP was a big focus. Moore being a evil incarnate allows that part of the campaign to write itself.
_moksha
_Emeritus
Posts: 22508
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:42 pm

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _moksha »

As long as entropy remains in the laws of thermodynamics, Republicans will thrive.

So much for my being part of a prophetic people when my prediction of Alabama electing Judge Roy Bean Moore failed to happen.
Cry Heaven and let loose the Penguins of Peace
_MeDotOrg
_Emeritus
Posts: 4761
Joined: Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:29 pm

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _MeDotOrg »

subgenius wrote:
MeDotOrg wrote:...
2018 will be a pivotal year in American politics. The ground is shifting.

Seems a bit exaggerated. Policy, platform, or ideology didn't win or lose this election. The democrats ran on "look what he may have wanted to do with his penis!".
2018 will be won and lost by substance, and that hasn't changed for democrats. Democrats will have to come up with something better than relentless pedophile allegations in 2018, and right now that's all they got.

I think one thing should have been learned in Alabama: The political pendulum for the country is not swinging further to the right. But that is not the only reason I think 2018 will be a groundbreaking year. I also think Republicans will find it a lot more difficult to run against Robert Mueller than Hillary Clinton, despite the concerted effort being made to besmirch his reputation.

I think we are seeing the beginning of a fundamental change in politics, in the way we process information about politics. I think the internet and popular culture is helping to drive it. People are becoming more factionalized. We don't get our news though the same sources, so we have vastly different views on things.

In 2018 I think there is a good chance that either Robert Mueller is fired or he presents findings. If the President fires Mueller I think there would be a reaction that would dwarf the response to Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre. If he presents findings we are going to see a far more divided congress than the one that entertained impeachment proceedings against Nixon. I have to admit we are looking into a black box with respect to Mueller's thinking. One thing you can say about Mueller's investigation is that it has been pretty leak free. So without knowing for certain what Mueller's findings will be, even if he exonerates Trump in a criminal legal sense, when the larger stories about how Flynn and Manafort attempted to influence Trump based on financial interests with foreign countries, Trump's only defense will be that he was a political neophyte, and that's not terribly comforting. So the best possible outcome for Trump would be no criminal liability, but nevertheless a huge black eye with respect to his competency.

Any attempt at impeachment will be far more passionate and divisive that the rather careful and considered behavior of the House impeachment committee in 1974. All of these factors are coming together: An increasingly divided country increasingly divided over the behavior or an increasingly divisive President. The political divides in this country are going to get a lot worse this year, reminiscent of the Vietnam War. (And possibly worse.)

You are quite right to point out the Democrats are not receiving droves of independents and centrist Republicans. In that respect, the defeat of Roy Moore was a victory for the Republican Party. They don't have to campaign with his albatross around their necks. But the number of people who identify as Republicans dropped 5% since Trump was elected.

But the Democratic and Republican Parties have been around for over a century and a half in their present forms. I don't know that they will forever be the way that we align ourselves in the United States. It just feels like we are in a period of transition. Traditional religious affiliations are breaking down. People define themselves as being less religious and more spiritual, while mainline religions quietly shrink and more extreme religious views enjoy increased popularity. It just feels like a lot of old traditional affiliations and beliefs are breaking down, and that is a very stressful time in a society. It feels like this is going to be a very rocky year.

At the same time, I must say that I have never been as obsessed about politics as I am right now, and I was plenty obsessed during Watergate. Part of that is the nature of my life. I'm semi-retired, and I spend a lot of time reading news. It is also a lot easier to get news immediately and from a great many sources. Is it possible that my obsession with Donald Trump and his administration make it more likely for me to give greater meaning and portent to what is happening? You bet. Ultimately 365 days of time will tell.
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization."
- Will Durant
"We've kept more promises than we've even made"
- Donald Trump
"Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist."
- Edwin Land
_Maxine Waters
_Emeritus
Posts: 1085
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:29 am

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _Maxine Waters »

The question becomes what lesson the Bannon wing of the Party learns from the experience. Will pragmatism triumph over ideology? Will the party want to blow itself up rather than mover closer to the center?


Mitch McConnell is as much to blame for getting rid of Roy Moore's early challengers as anyone according to Mark Levine. Going center hasn't proven to help Republicans win general elections. If compromise won elections we'd be in Romney's second term. Economic nationalism is the winning formula for the Republican party now. The old GHWB chamber of commerce, amnesty, New World Order loving, branch of the Repubican party has no common working taxpayers to support it at the grass roots level. Republicans who align themselves as such are going to continue to lose primary elections.
“There were mothers who took this [Rodney King LA riots] as an opportunity to take some milk, to take some bread, to take some shoes ... They are not crooks.”

This liberal would be about socializing … uh, umm. … Would be about, basically, taking over, and the government running all of your companies.
_Brackite
_Emeritus
Posts: 6382
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 8:12 am

Re: As I predicted. The slow death of the Republican Party

Post by _Brackite »


Mitch McConnell is as much to blame for getting rid of Roy Moore's early challengers as anyone according to Mark Levine. Going center hasn't proven to help Republicans win general elections. If compromise won elections we'd be in Romney's second term. Economic nationalism is the winning formula for the Republican party now. The old GHWB chamber of commerce, amnesty, New World Order loving, branch of the Repubican party has no common working taxpayers to support it at the grass roots level. Republicans who align themselves as such are going to continue to lose primary elections.


Mark Levin along with Hannity are mainly wrong. Steve Bannon is mostly to blame for the GOP losing a Senate seat in deep red Alabama. He is the moron who endorsed Roy Moore over Luther Strange. Strange would have won handly in Alabama last night. The Republicans need to tell Bannon to “F” off.

With Moore out of the picture for the Republicans, I believe that they will have a bit better chance at retaining the House next year. I also believe that the GOP will likely end up winning a Senate seat either in North Dakota or West Virginia next year. But the GOP will likely lose the two Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona next year.
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
Post Reply