New Children on record - best stat showing decline of TSCC?

[_Sanctorian]

This year TSCC claims 109,246 new children of record. This is a stat that should show growth every year based on membership growth and yet has declined for the last 5-6 years. That got me thinking.

The global birth rate is 19 births per 1000 people. With 15,882,417 strong members, the church should have 301,766 new children on record.

Utah has the highest birth rates in the US at 17 per 1000. Using that number as a metric for Mormon families, the church should have around 270,001 new children of record.

Based on the claimed 109,246 new children on record and using the Utah and global birth rates per 1000 people, that would put the true Mormon membership somewhere between 5.7 - 6.4 million members worldwide.

Now think about this, how many less active/non active families still have their babies blessed? That number is pretty high in Utah due to social pressures.

In addition, one of the latest leaks suggests Utah has an activity rate of 50%. Utah probably has the highest activity rate worldwide so it could be the church has less than 3-5 million active members worldwide. Ouch!

[_I have a question]

Member families having babies is the pipeline of new members that the Church relies heavily upon.
If that is reducing the Church has a serious problem.

[_Everybody Wang Chung]

The new children on record stat should be of great concern to the leadership, if they are concerned about growth.